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ECUS vs Tanabi — Paulista Série B 2026

ECUS
ECUS
FT
0 – 2
HT: 0 – 1
Tanabi
Tanabi
Marcelo Macola 85'
Breno 38'
8/23/2025Paulista Série BPaulista Série B · FinalsEstádio Municipal Francisco Marques Figueira

Match Prediction

Statistical Prediction

Based on goals from last 16+ matches

ECUS40%
×Draw28%
Tanabi32%
✓ Correct in 50 of 100 matches — 5 more than always backing the home side
Model
50.2%
Always home
44.5%

The model picks a winner (home or away) for each finished match using only pre-kickoff data, then checks it against the real result: 50.2% correct across 585,598 matches, vs 44.5% for always backing the home side.

Home picks 50.5% correct · Away picks 49.3% correct

Football matches only. Past performance is not indicative of future results.

Expected goals in this match

What is xG?

Every shot is scored 0–1 by how likely it is to be a goal from that spot — a chance in the middle of the box ≈ 0.4, a long shot from a tight angle ≈ 0.03, a penalty ≈ 0.76. Add them up over a match and that is the xG.

The scoreline can lie: you can win 1-0 on a fluke while creating half the chances. xG shows who was really closer to scoring — and over a season it predicts results better than goals alone.

ECUS
1.25
Tanabi
1.07

ECUS creates 17% more chances

Season form · 16 home / 18 away

creates per match

ECUS
1.44
Tanabi
1.33

allows per match

ECUS
0.81
Tanabi
1.06

finishing

ECUS+0.00on par
Tanabi+0.00on par

Total goals

Under: 59Over: 4159%Under
  • Under59
  • Over41

Fewer than 3 goals likely

Both teams score

No: 53Yes: 4753%No
  • No53
  • Yes47

One side may not score

Score probability

Probability of each scoreline, %

ECUS ↓

Tanabi →
0
1
2
3
4
0
0–010%
0–111%
0–26%
0–32%
0–41%
1
1–012%
1–113%
1–27%
1–33%
1–41%
2
2–08%
2–18%
2–24%
2–32%
2–40%
3
3–03%
3–13%
3–22%
3–31%
3–40%
4
4–01%
4–11%
4–21%
4–30%
4–40%

Most likely 1–1 (13%) · grid covers 99% of scorelines

More markets

Total goals

OverUnder0.5
90%10%1.5
67%33%2.5
41%59%3.5
20%80%4.5
9%91%

Double chance

ECUS or draw
68%
ECUS or Tanabi
72%
Draw or Tanabi
60%

Winning margin

ECUS wins by 2+
18%
Tanabi wins by 2+
12%

Team goals

ECUS 1+ goals
71%
ECUS 2+ goals
36%
ECUS 3+ goals
13%
Tanabi 1+ goals
66%
Tanabi 2+ goals
29%
Tanabi 3+ goals
9%

Draw no bet

ECUS (draw refunded)
56%
Tanabi (draw refunded)
44%

Combos

Both score & 3+ goals
34%
Both score & under 3
13%

Model probabilities, not odds. For information only.

How is this calculated?

Every number below comes from this match — nothing is made up.

1

Recent form of each side

ECUS at home — creates 1.44, concedes 0.81 · 16 matches

Tanabi away — creates 1.33, concedes 1.06 · 18 matches

⚑ Home and away form are counted separately — the home-field edge is already baked into these numbers.

2

Expected goals for this match

ECUS attack 1.44 + Tanabi defence 1.06 → ÷2 → 1.25

Tanabi attack 1.33 + ECUS defence 0.81 → ÷2 → 1.07

Each side's attack is blended with the other's defence, then averaged.

3

Chance of every scoreline

From those two numbers a Poisson distribution gives the probability of each exact score — the grid shown above.

4

The answer to "why 40%?"

ECUS scores more
40%
level
28%
Tanabi scores more
32%

ECUS at 40% is simply the biggest of the three — that is the pick.

What the model can't see

It reads only the stats of recent matches. It knows nothing about:

  • injuries & suspensions
  • the matchday lineup
  • motivation — cup, relegation, a title race
  • weather & pitch condition
  • in-game coaching decisions

So 40% does not mean "ECUS will win" — it means "on the available stats, this is the most likely result."

Statistical model based on expected goals (xG). For informational purposes only.

Match Events

38'
Breno
85'
Marcelo Macola

Probable lineups not yet announced

Starting lineups are usually confirmed ~1 hour before kickoff

ECUS 0 – 2 Tanabi

Tanabi beat ECUS 2-0 in Paulista Série B on August 23, 2025.

Goals: Breno (38'), Marcelo Macola (85').

The match was played at Estádio Municipal Francisco Marques Figueira in Suzano, São Paulo.