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ECUS vs Paulista — Paulista Série B 2026

ECUS
ECUS
FT
1 – 2
HT: 1 – 1
Paulista
Paulista
Unknown 37'
Unknown 90+2', 39'
7/20/2024Paulista Série BPaulista Série B · 2nd Phase - 4Estádio Municipal Francisco Marques Figueira

Match Prediction

Statistical Prediction

Based on goals from last 10+ matches

ECUS26%
×Draw28%
Paulista47%
✓ Correct in 50 of 100 matches — 5 more than always backing the home side
Model
50.2%
Always home
44.5%

The model picks a winner (home or away) for each finished match using only pre-kickoff data, then checks it against the real result: 50.2% correct across 585,598 matches, vs 44.5% for always backing the home side.

Home picks 50.5% correct · Away picks 49.3% correct

Football matches only. Past performance is not indicative of future results.

Expected goals in this match

What is xG?

Every shot is scored 0–1 by how likely it is to be a goal from that spot — a chance in the middle of the box ≈ 0.4, a long shot from a tight angle ≈ 0.03, a penalty ≈ 0.76. Add them up over a match and that is the xG.

The scoreline can lie: you can win 1-0 on a fluke while creating half the chances. xG shows who was really closer to scoring — and over a season it predicts results better than goals alone.

ECUS
0.92
Paulista
1.35

Paulista creates 47% more chances

Season form · 16 home / 10 away

creates per match

ECUS
1.44
Paulista
1.90

allows per match

ECUS
0.81
Paulista
0.40

finishing

ECUS+0.00on par
Paulista+0.00on par

Total goals

Under: 60Over: 4060%Under
  • Under60
  • Over40

Fewer than 3 goals likely

Both teams score

No: 55Yes: 4555%No
  • No55
  • Yes45

One side may not score

Score probability

Probability of each scoreline, %

ECUS ↓

Paulista →
0
1
2
3
4
0
0–010%
0–114%
0–29%
0–34%
0–41%
1
1–010%
1–113%
1–29%
1–34%
1–41%
2
2–04%
2–16%
2–24%
2–32%
2–41%
3
3–01%
3–12%
3–21%
3–31%
3–40%
4
4–00%
4–10%
4–20%
4–30%
4–40%

Most likely 0–1 (14%) · grid covers 99% of scorelines

More markets

Total goals

OverUnder0.5
90%10%1.5
66%34%2.5
40%60%3.5
19%81%4.5
8%92%

Double chance

ECUS or draw
53%
ECUS or Paulista
72%
Draw or Paulista
74%

Winning margin

ECUS wins by 2+
9%
Paulista wins by 2+
22%

Team goals

ECUS 1+ goals
60%
ECUS 2+ goals
23%
ECUS 3+ goals
7%
Paulista 1+ goals
74%
Paulista 2+ goals
39%
Paulista 3+ goals
15%

Draw no bet

ECUS (draw refunded)
35%
Paulista (draw refunded)
65%

Combos

Both score & 3+ goals
32%
Both score & under 3
13%

Model probabilities, not odds. For information only.

How is this calculated?

Every number below comes from this match — nothing is made up.

1

Recent form of each side

ECUS at home — creates 1.44, concedes 0.81 · 16 matches

Paulista away — creates 1.90, concedes 0.40 · 10 matches

⚑ Home and away form are counted separately — the home-field edge is already baked into these numbers.

2

Expected goals for this match

ECUS attack 1.44 + Paulista defence 0.40 → ÷2 → 0.92

Paulista attack 1.90 + ECUS defence 0.81 → ÷2 → 1.35

Each side's attack is blended with the other's defence, then averaged.

3

Chance of every scoreline

From those two numbers a Poisson distribution gives the probability of each exact score — the grid shown above.

4

The answer to "why 47%?"

ECUS scores more
26%
level
28%
Paulista scores more
47%

Paulista at 47% is simply the biggest of the three — that is the pick.

What the model can't see

It reads only the stats of recent matches. It knows nothing about:

  • injuries & suspensions
  • the matchday lineup
  • motivation — cup, relegation, a title race
  • weather & pitch condition
  • in-game coaching decisions

So 47% does not mean "Paulista will win" — it means "on the available stats, this is the most likely result."

Statistical model based on expected goals (xG). For informational purposes only.

Match Events

37'
39'
90+2'

Probable lineups not yet announced

Starting lineups are usually confirmed ~1 hour before kickoff

Match Recap: ECUS vs Paulista

Paulista beat ECUS 2-1 in Paulista Série B on July 20, 2024.

Goals: ? (37', 39', 90+2').

The match was played at Estádio Municipal Francisco Marques Figueira in Suzano, São Paulo.