ECUS 0–3 Inter de Bebedouro: Result & Stats

ECUS

FT

0 – 3

HT: 0 – 1

Inter de Bebedouro

C. Rosseto 90'

V. Almeida 70'

J. Matos Souza 24'

7/6/2024

Paulista Série B · 2nd Phase - 2Estádio Municipal Francisco Marques Figueira

Match Prediction

Statistical Prediction

Based on goals from last 10+ matches

ECUS31%

×Draw29%

Inter de Bebedouro40%

✓ Correct in 50 of 100 matches — 5 more than always backing the home side

Model

50.2%

Always home

44.5%

The model picks a winner (home or away) for each finished match using only pre-kickoff data, then checks it against the real result: 50.2% correct across 585,598 matches, vs 44.5% for always backing the home side.

Home picks 50.5% correct · Away picks 49.3% correct

Football matches only. Past performance is not indicative of future results.

ECUSExpected goals in this matchInter de Bebedouro

Expected goals in this match

What is xG?

Every shot is scored 0–1 by how likely it is to be a goal from that spot — a chance in the middle of the box ≈ 0.4, a long shot from a tight angle ≈ 0.03, a penalty ≈ 0.76. Add them up over a match and that is the xG.

The scoreline can lie: you can win 1-0 on a fluke while creating half the chances. xG shows who was really closer to scoring — and over a season it predicts results better than goals alone.

1.02

1.21

ECUS

1.02

Inter de Bebedouro

1.21

Inter de Bebedouro creates 19% more chances

Season form · 16 home / 10 away

1.44

creates per match

1.60

0.81

allows per match

0.60

creates per match

ECUS

1.44

Inter de Bebedouro

1.60

allows per match

ECUS

0.81

Inter de Bebedouro

0.60

+0.00on par

finishing

+0.00on par

finishing

ECUS+0.00on par

Inter de Bebedouro+0.00on par

Total goals

Under61
Over39

Fewer than 3 goals likely

Both teams score

No55
Yes45

One side may not score

Score probability

Probability of each scoreline, %

ECUS ↓

Inter de Bebedouro →

0

1

2

3

4

0

0–011%

0–113%

0–28%

0–33%

0–41%

1

1–011%

1–113%

1–28%

1–33%

1–41%

2

2–06%

2–17%

2–24%

2–32%

2–40%

3

3–02%

3–12%

3–21%

3–31%

3–40%

4

4–00%

4–11%

4–20%

4–30%

4–40%

Most likely 0–1 (13%) · grid covers 99% of scorelines

More markets

Total goals

OverUnder0.5

89%11%1.5

65%35%2.5

39%61%3.5

19%81%4.5

8%92%

Double chance

ECUS or draw

60%

ECUS or Inter de Bebedouro

71%

Draw or Inter de Bebedouro

69%

Winning margin

ECUS wins by 2+

12%

Inter de Bebedouro wins by 2+

17%

Team goals

ECUS 1+ goals

64%

ECUS 2+ goals

27%

ECUS 3+ goals

8%

Inter de Bebedouro 1+ goals

70%

Inter de Bebedouro 2+ goals

34%

Inter de Bebedouro 3+ goals

12%

Draw no bet

ECUS (draw refunded)

43%

Inter de Bebedouro (draw refunded)

57%

Combos

Both score & 3+ goals

32%

Both score & under 3

13%

Model probabilities, not odds. For information only.

How is this calculated?

Every number below comes from this match — nothing is made up.

1

Recent form of each side

ECUS at home — creates 1.44, concedes 0.81 · 16 matches

Inter de Bebedouro away — creates 1.60, concedes 0.60 · 10 matches

⚑ Home and away form are counted separately — the home-field edge is already baked into these numbers.

2

Expected goals for this match

ECUS attack 1.44 + Inter de Bebedouro defence 0.60 → ÷2 → 1.02

Inter de Bebedouro attack 1.60 + ECUS defence 0.81 → ÷2 → 1.21

Each side's attack is blended with the other's defence, then averaged.

3

Chance of every scoreline

From those two numbers a Poisson distribution gives the probability of each exact score — the grid shown above.

4

The answer to "why 40%?"

ECUS scores more

31%

level

29%

Inter de Bebedouro scores more

40%

Inter de Bebedouro at 40% is simply the biggest of the three — that is the pick.

What the model can't see

It reads only the stats of recent matches. It knows nothing about:

injuries & suspensions
the matchday lineup
motivation — cup, relegation, a title race
weather & pitch condition
in-game coaching decisions

So 40% does not mean "Inter de Bebedouro will win" — it means "on the available stats, this is the most likely result."

Statistical model based on expected goals (xG). For informational purposes only.

Match Events

24'

J. Matos Souza

70'

V. Almeida

90'

C. Rosseto

Probable lineups not yet announced

Starting lineups are usually confirmed ~1 hour before kickoff