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ECUS vs Batatais — Paulista Série B 2026

ECUS
ECUS
FT
3 – 0
HT: 2 – 0
Batatais
Batatais
Unknown 77'
Guilherme Formiga 43'
Mateus Goiano 30'
8/2/2025Paulista Série BPaulista Série B · 2nd Phase - 6Estádio Municipal Francisco Marques Figueira

Match Prediction

Statistical Prediction

Based on goals from last 7+ matches

ECUS53%
×Draw25%
Batatais22%
✓ Correct in 50 of 100 matches — 5 more than always backing the home side
Model
50.2%
Always home
44.5%

The model picks a winner (home or away) for each finished match using only pre-kickoff data, then checks it against the real result: 50.2% correct across 585,598 matches, vs 44.5% for always backing the home side.

Home picks 50.5% correct · Away picks 49.3% correct

Football matches only. Past performance is not indicative of future results.

Expected goals in this match

What is xG?

Every shot is scored 0–1 by how likely it is to be a goal from that spot — a chance in the middle of the box ≈ 0.4, a long shot from a tight angle ≈ 0.03, a penalty ≈ 0.76. Add them up over a match and that is the xG.

The scoreline can lie: you can win 1-0 on a fluke while creating half the chances. xG shows who was really closer to scoring — and over a season it predicts results better than goals alone.

ECUS
1.57
Batatais
0.91

ECUS creates 73% more chances

Season form · 16 home / 7 away

creates per match

ECUS
1.44
Batatais
1.00

allows per match

ECUS
0.81
Batatais
1.71

finishing

ECUS+0.00on par
Batatais+0.00on par

Total goals

Under: 55Over: 4555%Under
  • Under55
  • Over45

Fewer than 3 goals likely

Both teams score

No: 53Yes: 4753%No
  • No53
  • Yes47

One side may not score

Score probability

Probability of each scoreline, %

ECUS ↓

Batatais →
0
1
2
3
4
0
0–08%
0–18%
0–23%
0–31%
0–40%
1
1–013%
1–112%
1–25%
1–32%
1–40%
2
2–010%
2–19%
2–24%
2–31%
2–40%
3
3–05%
3–15%
3–22%
3–31%
3–40%
4
4–02%
4–12%
4–21%
4–30%
4–40%

Most likely 1–0 (13%) · grid covers 98% of scorelines

More markets

Total goals

OverUnder0.5
92%8%1.5
71%29%2.5
45%55%3.5
24%76%4.5
11%89%

Double chance

ECUS or draw
78%
ECUS or Batatais
75%
Draw or Batatais
47%

Winning margin

ECUS wins by 2+
28%
Batatais wins by 2+
7%

Team goals

ECUS 1+ goals
79%
ECUS 2+ goals
46%
ECUS 3+ goals
21%
Batatais 1+ goals
60%
Batatais 2+ goals
23%
Batatais 3+ goals
6%

Draw no bet

ECUS (draw refunded)
71%
Batatais (draw refunded)
29%

Combos

Both score & 3+ goals
35%
Both score & under 3
12%

Model probabilities, not odds. For information only.

How is this calculated?

Every number below comes from this match — nothing is made up.

1

Recent form of each side

ECUS at home — creates 1.44, concedes 0.81 · 16 matches

Batatais away — creates 1.00, concedes 1.71 · 7 matches

⚑ Home and away form are counted separately — the home-field edge is already baked into these numbers.

2

Expected goals for this match

ECUS attack 1.44 + Batatais defence 1.71 → ÷2 → 1.57

Batatais attack 1.00 + ECUS defence 0.81 → ÷2 → 0.91

Each side's attack is blended with the other's defence, then averaged.

3

Chance of every scoreline

From those two numbers a Poisson distribution gives the probability of each exact score — the grid shown above.

4

The answer to "why 53%?"

ECUS scores more
53%
level
25%
Batatais scores more
22%

ECUS at 53% is simply the biggest of the three — that is the pick.

What the model can't see

It reads only the stats of recent matches. It knows nothing about:

  • injuries & suspensions
  • the matchday lineup
  • motivation — cup, relegation, a title race
  • weather & pitch condition
  • in-game coaching decisions

So 53% does not mean "ECUS will win" — it means "on the available stats, this is the most likely result."

Statistical model based on expected goals (xG). For informational purposes only.

Match Events

30'
Mateus Goiano
43'
Guilherme Formiga
77'

Probable lineups not yet announced

Starting lineups are usually confirmed ~1 hour before kickoff

ECUS 3 – 0 Batatais

ECUS beat Batatais 3-0 in Paulista Série B on August 2, 2025.

Goals: Mateus Goiano (30'), Guilherme Formiga (43'), ? (77').

The match was played at Estádio Municipal Francisco Marques Figueira in Suzano, São Paulo.