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Ecuador W vs Panama W — Friendlies Women 2026

Ecuador W
Ecuador W
FT
0 – 1
HT: 0 – 0
Panama W
Panama W
A. Quintero 75'
10/8/2022Friendlies WomenFriendlies Women · Friendlies 2Estadio Rodrigo Paz Delgado

Match Prediction

Statistical Prediction

Based on goals from last 26+ matches

Ecuador W45%
×Draw25%
Panama W30%
✓ Correct in 50 of 100 matches — 5 more than always backing the home side
Model
50.2%
Always home
44.5%

The model picks a winner (home or away) for each finished match using only pre-kickoff data, then checks it against the real result: 50.2% correct across 585,598 matches, vs 44.5% for always backing the home side.

Home picks 50.5% correct · Away picks 49.3% correct

Football matches only. Past performance is not indicative of future results.

Expected goals in this match

What is xG?

Every shot is scored 0–1 by how likely it is to be a goal from that spot — a chance in the middle of the box ≈ 0.4, a long shot from a tight angle ≈ 0.03, a penalty ≈ 0.76. Add them up over a match and that is the xG.

The scoreline can lie: you can win 1-0 on a fluke while creating half the chances. xG shows who was really closer to scoring — and over a season it predicts results better than goals alone.

Ecuador W
1.53
Panama W
1.20

Ecuador W creates 28% more chances

Season form · 26 home / 28 away

creates per match

Ecuador W
1.35
Panama W
1.25

allows per match

Ecuador W
1.15
Panama W
1.71

finishing

Ecuador W+0.00on par
Panama W+0.00on par

Total goals

51%Over
  • Over51
  • Under49

Close call

Both teams score

55%Yes
  • Yes55
  • No45

Both teams likely to score

Score probability

Probability of each scoreline, %

Ecuador W ↓

Panama W →
0
1
2
3
4
0
0–07%
0–18%
0–25%
0–32%
0–41%
1
1–010%
1–112%
1–27%
1–33%
1–41%
2
2–08%
2–19%
2–26%
2–32%
2–41%
3
3–04%
3–15%
3–23%
3–31%
3–40%
4
4–01%
4–12%
4–21%
4–30%
4–40%

Most likely 1–1 (12%) · grid covers 97% of scorelines

More markets

Total goals

OverUnder0.5
93%7%1.5
76%24%2.5
51%49%3.5
29%71%4.5
14%86%

Double chance

Ecuador W or draw
70%
Ecuador W or Panama W
75%
Draw or Panama W
55%

Winning margin

Ecuador W wins by 2+
22%
Panama W wins by 2+
12%

Team goals

Ecuador W 1+ goals
78%
Ecuador W 2+ goals
45%
Ecuador W 3+ goals
20%
Panama W 1+ goals
70%
Panama W 2+ goals
34%
Panama W 3+ goals
12%

Draw no bet

Ecuador W (draw refunded)
60%
Panama W (draw refunded)
40%

Combos

Both score & 3+ goals
43%
Both score & under 3
12%

Model probabilities, not odds. For information only.

How is this calculated?

Every number below comes from this match — nothing is made up.

1

Recent form of each side

Ecuador W at home — creates 1.35, concedes 1.15 · 26 matches

Panama W away — creates 1.25, concedes 1.71 · 28 matches

⚑ Home and away form are counted separately — the home-field edge is already baked into these numbers.

2

Expected goals for this match

Ecuador W attack 1.35 + Panama W defence 1.71 → ÷2 → 1.53

Panama W attack 1.25 + Ecuador W defence 1.15 → ÷2 → 1.20

Each side's attack is blended with the other's defence, then averaged.

3

Chance of every scoreline

From those two numbers a Poisson distribution gives the probability of each exact score — the grid shown above.

4

The answer to "why 45%?"

Ecuador W scores more
45%
level
25%
Panama W scores more
30%

Ecuador W at 45% is simply the biggest of the three — that is the pick.

What the model can't see

It reads only the stats of recent matches. It knows nothing about:

  • injuries & suspensions
  • the matchday lineup
  • motivation — cup, relegation, a title race
  • weather & pitch condition
  • in-game coaching decisions

So 45% does not mean "Ecuador W will win" — it means "on the available stats, this is the most likely result."

Statistical model based on expected goals (xG). For informational purposes only.

Match Events

44'
46'
K. Castillo← K. Castillo
46'
E. Hernandez← E. Hernandez
46'
S. Aviles← S. Aviles
57'
T. Bermeo← T. Bermeo
64'
65'
A. Quintero← A. Quintero
69'
75'
A. Quintero
75'
G. Trujillo← G. Trujillo
75'
N. Riqueros← N. Riqueros
85'
S. Camarena← S. Camarena

Probable lineups not yet announced

Starting lineups are usually confirmed ~1 hour before kickoff

Match Recap: Ecuador W vs Panama W

Panama W beat Ecuador W 1-0 in Friendlies Women on October 8, 2022.

Goals: A. Quintero (75').

The match was played at Estadio Rodrigo Paz Delgado in Quito.