Ecuador 2–0 Guatemala: Result & Stats | Friendlies

Ecuador

FT

2 – 0

HT: 0 – 0

Guatemala

9/12/2018

Friendlies · Friendlies 1Toyota Park (Bridgeview, Illinois)

Match Prediction

Statistical Prediction

Based on goals from last 17+ matches

Ecuador65%

×Draw22%

Guatemala13%

✓ Correct in 50 of 100 matches — 5 more than always backing the home side

Model

50.3%

Always home

44.5%

The model picks a winner (home or away) for each finished match using only pre-kickoff data, then checks it against the real result: 50.3% correct across 582,450 matches, vs 44.5% for always backing the home side.

Home picks 50.5% correct · Away picks 49.5% correct

Football matches only. Past performance is not indicative of future results.

EcuadorExpected goals in this matchGuatemala

Expected goals in this match

What is xG?

Every shot is scored 0–1 by how likely it is to be a goal from that spot — a chance in the middle of the box ≈ 0.4, a long shot from a tight angle ≈ 0.03, a penalty ≈ 0.76. Add them up over a match and that is the xG.

The scoreline can lie: you can win 1-0 on a fluke while creating half the chances. xG shows who was really closer to scoring — and over a season it predicts results better than goals alone.

1.83

0.67

Ecuador

1.83

Guatemala

0.67

Ecuador creates 173% more chances

Season form · 17 home / 28 away

1.71

creates per match

0.57

0.76

allows per match

1.96

creates per match

Ecuador

1.71

Guatemala

0.57

allows per match

Ecuador

0.76

Guatemala

1.96

+0.00on par

finishing

+0.00on par

finishing

Ecuador+0.00on par

Guatemala+0.00on par

Total goals

Under55
Over45

Fewer than 3 goals likely

Both teams score

No59
Yes41

One side may not score

Score probability

Probability of each scoreline, %

Ecuador ↓

Guatemala →

0

1

2

3

4

0

0–08%

0–16%

0–22%

0–30%

0–40%

1

1–015%

1–110%

1–23%

1–31%

1–40%

2

2–014%

2–19%

2–23%

2–31%

2–40%

3

3–08%

3–16%

3–22%

3–30%

3–40%

4

4–04%

4–13%

4–21%

4–30%

4–40%

Most likely 1–0 (15%) · grid covers 96% of scorelines

More markets

Total goals

OverUnder0.5

92%8%1.5

71%29%2.5

45%55%3.5

24%76%4.5

11%89%

Double chance

Ecuador or draw

87%

Ecuador or Guatemala

78%

Draw or Guatemala

35%

Winning margin

Ecuador wins by 2+

39%

Guatemala wins by 2+

3%

Team goals

Ecuador 1+ goals

84%

Ecuador 2+ goals

54%

Ecuador 3+ goals

28%

Guatemala 1+ goals

49%

Guatemala 2+ goals

15%

Guatemala 3+ goals

3%

Draw no bet

Ecuador (draw refunded)

83%

Guatemala (draw refunded)

17%

Combos

Both score & 3+ goals

31%

Both score & under 3

10%

Model probabilities, not odds. For information only.

How is this calculated?

Every number below comes from this match — nothing is made up.

1

Recent form of each side

Ecuador at home — creates 1.71, concedes 0.76 · 17 matches

Guatemala away — creates 0.57, concedes 1.96 · 28 matches

⚑ Home and away form are counted separately — the home-field edge is already baked into these numbers.

2

Expected goals for this match

Ecuador attack 1.71 + Guatemala defence 1.96 → ÷2 → 1.83

Guatemala attack 0.57 + Ecuador defence 0.76 → ÷2 → 0.67

Each side's attack is blended with the other's defence, then averaged.

3

Chance of every scoreline

From those two numbers a Poisson distribution gives the probability of each exact score — the grid shown above.

4

The answer to "why 65%?"

Ecuador scores more

65%

level

22%

Guatemala scores more

13%

Ecuador at 65% is simply the biggest of the three — that is the pick.

What the model can't see

It reads only the stats of recent matches. It knows nothing about:

injuries & suspensions
the matchday lineup
motivation — cup, relegation, a title race
weather & pitch condition
in-game coaching decisions

So 65% does not mean "Ecuador will win" — it means "on the available stats, this is the most likely result."

Statistical model based on expected goals (xG). For informational purposes only.

Probable lineups not yet announced

Starting lineups are usually confirmed ~1 hour before kickoff