Ecuador 1–1 Argentina: Result & Stats | League #34

Ecuador

FT

1 – 1

HT: 0 – 1

Argentina

E. Valencia 90+3'

J. Álvarez 24'

3/30/2022

League #34 · Group Stage - 18Estadio Monumental Banco Pichincha

Match Prediction

Statistical Prediction

Based on goals from last 5+ matches

Ecuador51%

×Draw27%

Argentina22%

✓ Correct in 51 of 100 matches — 6 more than always backing the home side

Model

50.5%

Always home

44.6%

The model picks a winner (home or away) for each finished match using only pre-kickoff data, then checks it against the real result: 50.5% correct across 581,483 matches, vs 44.6% for always backing the home side.

Home picks 50.7% correct · Away picks 49.7% correct

Football matches only. Past performance is not indicative of future results.

EcuadorExpected goals in this matchArgentina

Expected goals in this match

What is xG?

Every shot is scored 0–1 by how likely it is to be a goal from that spot — a chance in the middle of the box ≈ 0.4, a long shot from a tight angle ≈ 0.03, a penalty ≈ 0.76. Add them up over a match and that is the xG.

The scoreline can lie: you can win 1-0 on a fluke while creating half the chances. xG shows who was really closer to scoring — and over a season it predicts results better than goals alone.

1.47

0.86

Ecuador

1.47

Argentina

0.86

Ecuador creates 71% more chances

Season form · 5 home / 6 away

1.60

creates per match

1.33

0.40

allows per match

1.33

creates per match

Ecuador

1.60

Argentina

1.33

allows per match

Ecuador

0.40

Argentina

1.33

+0.00on par

finishing

+0.00on par

finishing

Ecuador+0.00on par

Argentina+0.00on par

Total goals

Under59
Over41

Fewer than 3 goals likely

Both teams score

No56
Yes44

One side may not score

Score probability

Probability of each scoreline, %

Ecuador ↓

Argentina →

0

1

2

3

4

0

0–010%

0–18%

0–24%

0–31%

0–40%

1

1–014%

1–112%

1–25%

1–32%

1–40%

2

2–011%

2–19%

2–24%

2–31%

2–40%

3

3–05%

3–14%

3–22%

3–31%

3–40%

4

4–02%

4–12%

4–21%

4–30%

4–40%

Most likely 1–0 (14%) · grid covers 98% of scorelines

More markets

Total goals

OverUnder0.5

90%10%1.5

68%32%2.5

41%59%3.5

21%79%4.5

9%91%

Double chance

Ecuador or draw

78%

Ecuador or Argentina

73%

Draw or Argentina

49%

Winning margin

Ecuador wins by 2+

26%

Argentina wins by 2+

7%

Team goals

Ecuador 1+ goals

77%

Ecuador 2+ goals

43%

Ecuador 3+ goals

18%

Argentina 1+ goals

58%

Argentina 2+ goals

21%

Argentina 3+ goals

6%

Draw no bet

Ecuador (draw refunded)

70%

Argentina (draw refunded)

30%

Combos

Both score & 3+ goals

32%

Both score & under 3

12%

Model probabilities, not odds. For information only.

How is this calculated?

Every number below comes from this match — nothing is made up.

1

Recent form of each side

Ecuador at home — creates 1.60, concedes 0.40 · 5 matches

Argentina away — creates 1.33, concedes 1.33 · 6 matches

⚑ Home and away form are counted separately — the home-field edge is already baked into these numbers.

2

Expected goals for this match

Ecuador attack 1.60 + Argentina defence 1.33 → ÷2 → 1.47

Argentina attack 1.33 + Ecuador defence 0.40 → ÷2 → 0.86

Each side's attack is blended with the other's defence, then averaged.

3

Chance of every scoreline

From those two numbers a Poisson distribution gives the probability of each exact score — the grid shown above.

4

The answer to "why 51%?"

Ecuador scores more

51%

level

27%

Argentina scores more

22%

Ecuador at 51% is simply the biggest of the three — that is the pick.

What the model can't see

It reads only the stats of recent matches. It knows nothing about:

injuries & suspensions
the matchday lineup
motivation — cup, relegation, a title race
weather & pitch condition
in-game coaching decisions

So 51% does not mean "Ecuador will win" — it means "on the available stats, this is the most likely result."

Statistical model based on expected goals (xG). For informational purposes only.

Player of the match

23

G. Rulli

Argentina · G

7.3

Match Events

18'

24'

37'

49'

56'

59'

E. Valencia← A. Franco

59'

E. Palacios← A. Mac Allister

60'

Á. Mena← R. Ibarra

68'

Michael Estrada

68'

Nicolás Otamendi

72'

Á. Correa← J. Álvarez

73'

J. Sarmiento← C. Gruezo

78'

G. Rodríguez← L. Paredes

78'

L. Ocampos← N. González

78'

J. Foyth← G. Montiel

80'

Piero Hincapié

82'

Á. Preciado← B. Castillo

82'

J. Caicedo← M. Estrada

89'

Piero HincapiéPenalty awarded

90+1'

Nicolás Tagliafico

90+3'

E. Valencia

Possession

Shots

Pass accuracy

Statistics

EcuadorArgentina

Overview

47%Possession53%

10Total Shots6

6Corners2

21Fouls8

Shots

10Total Shots6

3On Target2

3Off Target2

4Blocked2

6Inside Box5

4Outside Box1

Passing

47%Possession53%

371Total Passes442

312Accurate Passes376

84%Pass Accuracy85%

Goalkeeping

1Saves2

Discipline

21Fouls8

5Yellow Cards3

1Offsides0

Match Recap: Ecuador vs Argentina

Ecuador and Argentina drew 1-1 in League #34 on March 30, 2022.

Goals: J. Álvarez (24'), E. Valencia (90+3').

Argentina controlled possession (53%) and registered 6 shots to 10.

The match was played at Estadio Monumental Banco Pichincha in Guayaquil.

Ecuador vs Argentina — League #34 2026

Match Prediction

Statistical Prediction

Total goals

Both teams score

Player of the match

Match Events

Head to Head

Possession

Shots

Pass accuracy

Statistics

Match Recap: Ecuador vs Argentina