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ECU Joondalup vs Stirling Lions — Western Australia NPL 2019

ECU Joondalup
ECU Joondalup
FT
1 – 1
Stirling Lions
Stirling Lions
7/6/2019Western Australia NPLWestern Australia NPL · Round 15ECU Joondalup A (Perth)

Match Prediction

Statistical Prediction

Based on goals from last 31+ matches

ECU Joondalup41%
×Draw23%
Stirling Lions36%
✓ Correct in 50 of 100 matches — 6 more than always backing the home side
Model
49.7%
Always home
44.3%

The model picks a winner (home or away) for each finished match using only pre-kickoff data, then checks it against the real result: 49.7% correct across 106,786 matches, vs 44.3% for always backing the home side.

Home picks 50.7% correct · Away picks 47.3% correct

Football matches only. Past performance is not indicative of future results.

Expected goals in this match

What is xG?

Every shot is scored 0–1 by how likely it is to be a goal from that spot — a chance in the middle of the box ≈ 0.4, a long shot from a tight angle ≈ 0.03, a penalty ≈ 0.76. Add them up over a match and that is the xG.

The scoreline can lie: you can win 1-0 on a fluke while creating half the chances. xG shows who was really closer to scoring — and over a season it predicts results better than goals alone.

ECU Joondalup
1.74
Stirling Lions
1.60

Both teams create about equally

Season form · 31 home / 67 away

creates per match

ECU Joondalup
1.94
Stirling Lions
1.72

allows per match

ECU Joondalup
1.48
Stirling Lions
1.54

finishing

ECU Joondalup+0.00on par
Stirling Lions+0.00on par

Total goals

65%Over
  • Over65
  • Under35

3+ goals likely

Both teams score

66%Yes
  • Yes66
  • No34

Both teams likely to score

Score probability

Probability of each scoreline, %

ECU Joondalup ↓

Stirling Lions →
0
1
2
3
4
0
0–04%
0–16%
0–25%
0–32%
0–41%
1
1–06%
1–110%
1–28%
1–34%
1–42%
2
2–05%
2–19%
2–27%
2–34%
2–41%
3
3–03%
3–15%
3–24%
3–32%
3–41%
4
4–01%
4–12%
4–22%
4–31%
4–40%

Most likely 1–1 (10%) · grid covers 95% of scorelines

More markets

Total goals

OverUnder0.5
96%4%1.5
85%15%2.5
65%35%3.5
43%57%4.5
24%76%

Double chance

ECU Joondalup or draw
64%
ECU Joondalup or Stirling Lions
77%
Draw or Stirling Lions
59%

Winning margin

ECU Joondalup wins by 2+
22%
Stirling Lions wins by 2+
17%

Team goals

ECU Joondalup 1+ goals
82%
ECU Joondalup 2+ goals
52%
ECU Joondalup 3+ goals
25%
Stirling Lions 1+ goals
80%
Stirling Lions 2+ goals
47%
Stirling Lions 3+ goals
22%

Draw no bet

ECU Joondalup (draw refunded)
54%
Stirling Lions (draw refunded)
46%

Combos

Both score & 3+ goals
56%
Both score & under 3
10%

Model probabilities, not odds. For information only.

How is this calculated?

Every number below comes from this match — nothing is made up.

1

Recent form of each side

ECU Joondalup at home — creates 1.94, concedes 1.48 · 31 matches

Stirling Lions away — creates 1.72, concedes 1.54 · 67 matches

⚑ Home and away form are counted separately — the home-field edge is already baked into these numbers.

2

Expected goals for this match

ECU Joondalup attack 1.94 + Stirling Lions defence 1.54 → ÷2 → 1.74

Stirling Lions attack 1.72 + ECU Joondalup defence 1.48 → ÷2 → 1.60

Each side's attack is blended with the other's defence, then averaged.

3

Chance of every scoreline

From those two numbers a Poisson distribution gives the probability of each exact score — the grid shown above.

4

The answer to "why 41%?"

ECU Joondalup scores more
41%
level
23%
Stirling Lions scores more
36%

ECU Joondalup at 41% is simply the biggest of the three — that is the pick.

What the model can't see

It reads only the stats of recent matches. It knows nothing about:

  • injuries & suspensions
  • the matchday lineup
  • motivation — cup, relegation, a title race
  • weather & pitch condition
  • in-game coaching decisions

So 41% does not mean "ECU Joondalup will win" — it means "on the available stats, this is the most likely result."

Statistical model based on expected goals (xG). For informational purposes only.

Probable lineups not yet announced

Starting lineups are usually confirmed ~1 hour before kickoff

Match Recap: ECU Joondalup vs Stirling Lions

ECU Joondalup and Stirling Lions drew 1-1 in Western Australia NPL on July 6, 2019.

The match was played at ECU Joondalup A (Perth).