ECU Joondalup 4–3 Rockingham City: Result & Stats

ECU Joondalup

FT

4 – 3

Rockingham City

4/27/2019

Western Australia NPL · Round 7ECU Joondalup A (Perth)

Match Prediction

Statistical Prediction

Based on goals from last 31+ matches

ECU Joondalup64%

×Draw18%

Rockingham City18%

✓ Correct in 50 of 100 matches — 6 more than always backing the home side

Model

49.7%

Always home

44.3%

The model picks a winner (home or away) for each finished match using only pre-kickoff data, then checks it against the real result: 49.7% correct across 106,786 matches, vs 44.3% for always backing the home side.

Home picks 50.7% correct · Away picks 47.3% correct

Football matches only. Past performance is not indicative of future results.

ECU JoondalupExpected goals in this matchRockingham City

Expected goals in this match

What is xG?

Every shot is scored 0–1 by how likely it is to be a goal from that spot — a chance in the middle of the box ≈ 0.4, a long shot from a tight angle ≈ 0.03, a penalty ≈ 0.76. Add them up over a match and that is the xG.

The scoreline can lie: you can win 1-0 on a fluke while creating half the chances. xG shows who was really closer to scoring — and over a season it predicts results better than goals alone.

2.47

1.25

ECU Joondalup

2.47

Rockingham City

1.25

ECU Joondalup creates 98% more chances

Season form · 31 home / 31 away

1.94

creates per match

1.03

1.48

allows per match

3.00

creates per match

ECU Joondalup

1.94

Rockingham City

1.03

allows per match

ECU Joondalup

1.48

Rockingham City

3.00

+0.00on par

finishing

+0.00on par

finishing

ECU Joondalup+0.00on par

Rockingham City+0.00on par

Total goals

Over71
Under29

3+ goals likely

Both teams score

Yes65
No35

Both teams likely to score

Score probability

Probability of each scoreline, %

ECU Joondalup ↓

Rockingham City →

0

1

2

3

4

0

0–02%

0–13%

0–22%

0–31%

0–40%

1

1–06%

1–18%

1–25%

1–32%

1–41%

2

2–07%

2–19%

2–26%

2–32%

2–41%

3

3–06%

3–18%

3–25%

3–32%

3–41%

4

4–04%

4–15%

4–23%

4–31%

4–40%

Most likely 2–1 (9%) · grid covers 90% of scorelines

More markets

Total goals

OverUnder0.5

98%2%1.5

88%12%2.5

71%29%3.5

50%50%4.5

31%69%

Double chance

ECU Joondalup or draw

82%

ECU Joondalup or Rockingham City

82%

Draw or Rockingham City

36%

Winning margin

ECU Joondalup wins by 2+

42%

Rockingham City wins by 2+

7%

Team goals

ECU Joondalup 1+ goals

91%

ECU Joondalup 2+ goals

70%

ECU Joondalup 3+ goals

44%

Rockingham City 1+ goals

71%

Rockingham City 2+ goals

36%

Rockingham City 3+ goals

13%

Draw no bet

ECU Joondalup (draw refunded)

78%

Rockingham City (draw refunded)

22%

Combos

Both score & 3+ goals

58%

Both score & under 3

8%

Model probabilities, not odds. For information only.

How is this calculated?

Every number below comes from this match — nothing is made up.

1

Recent form of each side

ECU Joondalup at home — creates 1.94, concedes 1.48 · 31 matches

Rockingham City away — creates 1.03, concedes 3.00 · 31 matches

⚑ Home and away form are counted separately — the home-field edge is already baked into these numbers.

2

Expected goals for this match

ECU Joondalup attack 1.94 + Rockingham City defence 3.00 → ÷2 → 2.47

Rockingham City attack 1.03 + ECU Joondalup defence 1.48 → ÷2 → 1.25

Each side's attack is blended with the other's defence, then averaged.

3

Chance of every scoreline

From those two numbers a Poisson distribution gives the probability of each exact score — the grid shown above.

4

The answer to "why 64%?"

ECU Joondalup scores more

64%

level

18%

Rockingham City scores more

18%

ECU Joondalup at 64% is simply the biggest of the three — that is the pick.

What the model can't see

It reads only the stats of recent matches. It knows nothing about:

injuries & suspensions
the matchday lineup
motivation — cup, relegation, a title race
weather & pitch condition
in-game coaching decisions

So 64% does not mean "ECU Joondalup will win" — it means "on the available stats, this is the most likely result."

Statistical model based on expected goals (xG). For informational purposes only.

Probable lineups not yet announced

Starting lineups are usually confirmed ~1 hour before kickoff