Scoreo
FootballHockeyTennisBasketballVolleyballHandballBaseballRugbyMMAFormula 1

ECU Joondalup vs Gwelup Croatia — Western Australia NPL 2019

ECU Joondalup
ECU Joondalup
AET
1 – 1
HT: 1 – 1
Gwelup Croatia
Gwelup Croatiaadvanced
10/7/2020Western Australia NPLWestern Australia NPL · Major Semi-finalsPercy Doyle Reserve A

Match Prediction

Statistical Prediction

Based on goals from last 30+ matches

ECU Joondalup47%
×Draw22%
Gwelup Croatia31%
✓ Correct in 50 of 100 matches — 6 more than always backing the home side
Model
49.7%
Always home
44.3%

The model picks a winner (home or away) for each finished match using only pre-kickoff data, then checks it against the real result: 49.7% correct across 106,786 matches, vs 44.3% for always backing the home side.

Home picks 50.7% correct · Away picks 47.3% correct

Football matches only. Past performance is not indicative of future results.

Expected goals in this match

What is xG?

Every shot is scored 0–1 by how likely it is to be a goal from that spot — a chance in the middle of the box ≈ 0.4, a long shot from a tight angle ≈ 0.03, a penalty ≈ 0.76. Add them up over a match and that is the xG.

The scoreline can lie: you can win 1-0 on a fluke while creating half the chances. xG shows who was really closer to scoring — and over a season it predicts results better than goals alone.

ECU Joondalup
1.92
Gwelup Croatia
1.52

ECU Joondalup creates 26% more chances

Season form · 31 home / 30 away

creates per match

ECU Joondalup
1.94
Gwelup Croatia
1.57

allows per match

ECU Joondalup
1.48
Gwelup Croatia
1.90

finishing

ECU Joondalup+0.00on par
Gwelup Croatia+0.00on par

Total goals

67%Over
  • Over67
  • Under33

3+ goals likely

Both teams score

67%Yes
  • Yes67
  • No33

Both teams likely to score

Score probability

Probability of each scoreline, %

ECU Joondalup ↓

Gwelup Croatia →
0
1
2
3
4
0
0–03%
0–15%
0–24%
0–32%
0–41%
1
1–06%
1–19%
1–27%
1–34%
1–41%
2
2–06%
2–19%
2–27%
2–33%
2–41%
3
3–04%
3–16%
3–24%
3–32%
3–41%
4
4–02%
4–13%
4–22%
4–31%
4–40%

Most likely 1–1 (9%) · grid covers 94% of scorelines

More markets

Total goals

OverUnder0.5
97%3%1.5
86%14%2.5
67%33%3.5
45%55%4.5
26%74%

Double chance

ECU Joondalup or draw
69%
ECU Joondalup or Gwelup Croatia
78%
Draw or Gwelup Croatia
53%

Winning margin

ECU Joondalup wins by 2+
26%
Gwelup Croatia wins by 2+
14%

Team goals

ECU Joondalup 1+ goals
85%
ECU Joondalup 2+ goals
57%
ECU Joondalup 3+ goals
30%
Gwelup Croatia 1+ goals
78%
Gwelup Croatia 2+ goals
45%
Gwelup Croatia 3+ goals
20%

Draw no bet

ECU Joondalup (draw refunded)
60%
Gwelup Croatia (draw refunded)
40%

Combos

Both score & 3+ goals
57%
Both score & under 3
9%

Model probabilities, not odds. For information only.

How is this calculated?

Every number below comes from this match — nothing is made up.

1

Recent form of each side

ECU Joondalup at home — creates 1.94, concedes 1.48 · 31 matches

Gwelup Croatia away — creates 1.57, concedes 1.90 · 30 matches

⚑ Home and away form are counted separately — the home-field edge is already baked into these numbers.

2

Expected goals for this match

ECU Joondalup attack 1.94 + Gwelup Croatia defence 1.90 → ÷2 → 1.92

Gwelup Croatia attack 1.57 + ECU Joondalup defence 1.48 → ÷2 → 1.52

Each side's attack is blended with the other's defence, then averaged.

3

Chance of every scoreline

From those two numbers a Poisson distribution gives the probability of each exact score — the grid shown above.

4

The answer to "why 47%?"

ECU Joondalup scores more
47%
level
22%
Gwelup Croatia scores more
31%

ECU Joondalup at 47% is simply the biggest of the three — that is the pick.

What the model can't see

It reads only the stats of recent matches. It knows nothing about:

  • injuries & suspensions
  • the matchday lineup
  • motivation — cup, relegation, a title race
  • weather & pitch condition
  • in-game coaching decisions

So 47% does not mean "ECU Joondalup will win" — it means "on the available stats, this is the most likely result."

Statistical model based on expected goals (xG). For informational purposes only.

Probable lineups not yet announced

Starting lineups are usually confirmed ~1 hour before kickoff

Match Recap: ECU Joondalup vs Gwelup Croatia

ECU Joondalup and Gwelup Croatia drew 1-1 in Western Australia NPL on October 7, 2020.

The match was played at Percy Doyle Reserve A in Perth.