ECU Joondalup 3–1 Cockburn City: Result & Stats

ECU Joondalup

FT

3 – 1

HT: 0 – 1

Cockburn City

5/18/2024

Western Australia State League 1 · Round 7Pentanet Stadium

Match Prediction

Statistical Prediction

Based on goals from last 11+ matches

ECU Joondalup56%

×Draw19%

Cockburn City25%

✓ Correct in 50 of 100 matches — 6 more than always backing the home side

Model

49.7%

Always home

44.3%

The model picks a winner (home or away) for each finished match using only pre-kickoff data, then checks it against the real result: 49.7% correct across 106,786 matches, vs 44.3% for always backing the home side.

Home picks 50.7% correct · Away picks 47.3% correct

Football matches only. Past performance is not indicative of future results.

ECU JoondalupExpected goals in this matchCockburn City

Expected goals in this match

What is xG?

Every shot is scored 0–1 by how likely it is to be a goal from that spot — a chance in the middle of the box ≈ 0.4, a long shot from a tight angle ≈ 0.03, a penalty ≈ 0.76. Add them up over a match and that is the xG.

The scoreline can lie: you can win 1-0 on a fluke while creating half the chances. xG shows who was really closer to scoring — and over a season it predicts results better than goals alone.

2.65

1.75

ECU Joondalup

2.65

Cockburn City

1.75

ECU Joondalup creates 51% more chances

Season form · 11 home / 17 away

2.64

creates per match

1.59

1.91

allows per match

2.65

creates per match

ECU Joondalup

2.64

Cockburn City

1.59

allows per match

ECU Joondalup

1.91

Cockburn City

2.65

+0.00on par

finishing

+0.00on par

finishing

ECU Joondalup+0.00on par

Cockburn City+0.00on par

Total goals

Over81
Under19

3+ goals likely

Both teams score

Yes77
No23

Both teams likely to score

Score probability

Probability of each scoreline, %

ECU Joondalup ↓

Cockburn City →

0

1

2

3

4

0

0–01%

0–12%

0–22%

0–31%

0–40%

1

1–03%

1–16%

1–25%

1–33%

1–41%

2

2–04%

2–18%

2–27%

2–34%

2–42%

3

3–04%

3–17%

3–26%

3–33%

3–42%

4

4–03%

4–15%

4–24%

4–32%

4–41%

Most likely 2–1 (8%) · grid covers 86% of scorelines

More markets

Total goals

OverUnder0.5

99%1%1.5

93%7%2.5

81%19%3.5

63%37%4.5

44%56%

Double chance

ECU Joondalup or draw

75%

ECU Joondalup or Cockburn City

81%

Draw or Cockburn City

44%

Winning margin

ECU Joondalup wins by 2+

37%

Cockburn City wins by 2+

12%

Team goals

ECU Joondalup 1+ goals

93%

ECU Joondalup 2+ goals

74%

ECU Joondalup 3+ goals

48%

Cockburn City 1+ goals

83%

Cockburn City 2+ goals

52%

Cockburn City 3+ goals

25%

Draw no bet

ECU Joondalup (draw refunded)

69%

Cockburn City (draw refunded)

31%

Combos

Both score & 3+ goals

71%

Both score & under 3

6%

Model probabilities, not odds. For information only.

How is this calculated?

Every number below comes from this match — nothing is made up.

1

Recent form of each side

ECU Joondalup at home — creates 2.64, concedes 1.91 · 11 matches

Cockburn City away — creates 1.59, concedes 2.65 · 17 matches

⚑ Home and away form are counted separately — the home-field edge is already baked into these numbers.

2

Expected goals for this match

ECU Joondalup attack 2.64 + Cockburn City defence 2.65 → ÷2 → 2.65

Cockburn City attack 1.59 + ECU Joondalup defence 1.91 → ÷2 → 1.75

Each side's attack is blended with the other's defence, then averaged.

3

Chance of every scoreline

From those two numbers a Poisson distribution gives the probability of each exact score — the grid shown above.

4

The answer to "why 56%?"

ECU Joondalup scores more

56%

level

19%

Cockburn City scores more

25%

ECU Joondalup at 56% is simply the biggest of the three — that is the pick.

What the model can't see

It reads only the stats of recent matches. It knows nothing about:

injuries & suspensions
the matchday lineup
motivation — cup, relegation, a title race
weather & pitch condition
in-game coaching decisions

So 56% does not mean "ECU Joondalup will win" — it means "on the available stats, this is the most likely result."

Statistical model based on expected goals (xG). For informational purposes only.

Probable lineups not yet announced

Starting lineups are usually confirmed ~1 hour before kickoff