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Écija vs Xerez — Tercera División RFEF - Group 10 2019

Écija
Écija
FT
0 – 3
Xerez
Xerez
11/9/2019Tercera División RFEF - Group 10Tercera División RFEF - Group 10 · Group 10 - 13Estadio Municipal San Pablo

Match Prediction

Statistical Prediction

Based on goals from last 18+ matches

Écija9%
×Draw18%
Xerez73%
✓ Correct in 50 of 100 matches — 6 more than always backing the home side
Model
49.7%
Always home
44.3%

The model picks a winner (home or away) for each finished match using only pre-kickoff data, then checks it against the real result: 49.7% correct across 106,786 matches, vs 44.3% for always backing the home side.

Home picks 50.7% correct · Away picks 47.3% correct

Football matches only. Past performance is not indicative of future results.

Expected goals in this match

What is xG?

Every shot is scored 0–1 by how likely it is to be a goal from that spot — a chance in the middle of the box ≈ 0.4, a long shot from a tight angle ≈ 0.03, a penalty ≈ 0.76. Add them up over a match and that is the xG.

The scoreline can lie: you can win 1-0 on a fluke while creating half the chances. xG shows who was really closer to scoring — and over a season it predicts results better than goals alone.

Écija
0.58
Xerez
2.10

Xerez creates 262% more chances

Season form · 18 home / 75 away

creates per match

Écija
0.00
Xerez
1.20

allows per match

Écija
3.00
Xerez
1.17

finishing

Écija+0.00on par
Xerez+0.00on par

Total goals

50%Under
  • Under50
  • Over50

Close call

Both teams score

61%No
  • No61
  • Yes39

One side may not score

Score probability

Probability of each scoreline, %

Écija ↓

Xerez →
0
1
2
3
4
0
0–07%
0–114%
0–215%
0–311%
0–46%
1
1–04%
1–18%
1–29%
1–36%
1–43%
2
2–01%
2–12%
2–23%
2–32%
2–41%
3
3–00%
3–10%
3–20%
3–30%
3–40%
4
4–00%
4–10%
4–20%
4–30%
4–40%

Most likely 0–2 (15%) · grid covers 94% of scorelines

More markets

Total goals

OverUnder0.5
93%7%1.5
75%25%2.5
50%50%3.5
28%72%4.5
13%87%

Double chance

Écija or draw
27%
Écija or Xerez
82%
Draw or Xerez
91%

Winning margin

Écija wins by 2+
2%
Xerez wins by 2+
47%

Team goals

Écija 1+ goals
44%
Écija 2+ goals
12%
Écija 3+ goals
2%
Xerez 1+ goals
88%
Xerez 2+ goals
62%
Xerez 3+ goals
35%

Draw no bet

Écija (draw refunded)
11%
Xerez (draw refunded)
89%

Combos

Both score & 3+ goals
30%
Both score & under 3
8%

Model probabilities, not odds. For information only.

How is this calculated?

Every number below comes from this match — nothing is made up.

1

Recent form of each side

Écija at home — creates 0.00, concedes 3.00 · 18 matches

Xerez away — creates 1.20, concedes 1.17 · 75 matches

⚑ Home and away form are counted separately — the home-field edge is already baked into these numbers.

2

Expected goals for this match

Écija attack 0.00 + Xerez defence 1.17 → ÷2 → 0.58

Xerez attack 1.20 + Écija defence 3.00 → ÷2 → 2.10

Each side's attack is blended with the other's defence, then averaged.

3

Chance of every scoreline

From those two numbers a Poisson distribution gives the probability of each exact score — the grid shown above.

4

The answer to "why 73%?"

Écija scores more
9%
level
18%
Xerez scores more
73%

Xerez at 73% is simply the biggest of the three — that is the pick.

What the model can't see

It reads only the stats of recent matches. It knows nothing about:

  • injuries & suspensions
  • the matchday lineup
  • motivation — cup, relegation, a title race
  • weather & pitch condition
  • in-game coaching decisions

So 73% does not mean "Xerez will win" — it means "on the available stats, this is the most likely result."

Statistical model based on expected goals (xG). For informational purposes only.

Probable lineups not yet announced

Starting lineups are usually confirmed ~1 hour before kickoff

Match Recap: Écija vs Xerez

Xerez beat Écija 3-0 in Tercera División RFEF - Group 10 on November 9, 2019.

The match was played at Estadio Municipal San Pablo in Écija.