Écija 0–3 San Roque Lepe: Result & Stats

Écija

0 – 3

San Roque Lepe

3/7/2020

Tercera División RFEF - Group 10 · Group 10 - 29Estadio Municipal San Pablo

Match Prediction

Statistical Prediction

Based on goals from last 18+ matches

Écija11%

×Draw20%

San Roque Lepe69%

✓ Correct in 50 of 100 matches — 6 more than always backing the home side

Model

49.7%

Always home

44.3%

The model picks a winner (home or away) for each finished match using only pre-kickoff data, then checks it against the real result: 49.7% correct across 106,786 matches, vs 44.3% for always backing the home side.

Home picks 50.7% correct · Away picks 47.3% correct

Football matches only. Past performance is not indicative of future results.

ÉcijaExpected goals in this matchSan Roque Lepe

Expected goals in this match

What is xG?

Every shot is scored 0–1 by how likely it is to be a goal from that spot — a chance in the middle of the box ≈ 0.4, a long shot from a tight angle ≈ 0.03, a penalty ≈ 0.76. Add them up over a match and that is the xG.

The scoreline can lie: you can win 1-0 on a fluke while creating half the chances. xG shows who was really closer to scoring — and over a season it predicts results better than goals alone.

0.64

1.98

Écija

0.64

San Roque Lepe

1.98

San Roque Lepe creates 209% more chances

Season form · 18 home / 61 away

0.00

creates per match

0.97

3.00

allows per match

1.28

creates per match

Écija

0.00

San Roque Lepe

0.97

allows per match

Écija

3.00

San Roque Lepe

1.28

+0.00on par

finishing

+0.00on par

finishing

Écija+0.00on par

San Roque Lepe+0.00on par

Total goals

Under52
Over48

Close call

Both teams score

No59
Yes41

One side may not score

Score probability

Probability of each scoreline, %

Écija ↓

San Roque Lepe →

0–07%

0–114%

0–214%

0–39%

0–45%

1–05%

1–19%

1–29%

1–36%

1–43%

2–01%

2–13%

2–23%

2–32%

2–41%

3–00%

3–11%

3–21%

3–30%

3–40%

4–00%

4–10%

4–20%

4–30%

4–40%

Most likely 0–1 (14%) · grid covers 95% of scorelines

More markets

Total goals

OverUnder0.5

93%7%1.5

74%26%2.5

48%52%3.5

27%73%4.5

12%88%

Double chance

Écija or draw

31%

Écija or San Roque Lepe

80%

Draw or San Roque Lepe

89%

Winning margin

Écija wins by 2+

San Roque Lepe wins by 2+

43%

Team goals

Écija 1+ goals

47%

Écija 2+ goals

14%

Écija 3+ goals

San Roque Lepe 1+ goals

86%

San Roque Lepe 2+ goals

59%

San Roque Lepe 3+ goals

31%

Draw no bet

Écija (draw refunded)

14%

San Roque Lepe (draw refunded)

86%

Combos

Both score & 3+ goals

31%

Both score & under 3

Model probabilities, not odds. For information only.

How is this calculated?

Every number below comes from this match — nothing is made up.

Recent form of each side

Écija at home — creates 0.00, concedes 3.00 · 18 matches

San Roque Lepe away — creates 0.97, concedes 1.28 · 61 matches

⚑ Home and away form are counted separately — the home-field edge is already baked into these numbers.

Expected goals for this match

Écija attack 0.00 + San Roque Lepe defence 1.28 → ÷2 → 0.64

San Roque Lepe attack 0.97 + Écija defence 3.00 → ÷2 → 1.98

Each side's attack is blended with the other's defence, then averaged.

Chance of every scoreline

From those two numbers a Poisson distribution gives the probability of each exact score — the grid shown above.

The answer to "why 69%?"

Écija scores more

11%

level

20%

San Roque Lepe scores more

69%

San Roque Lepe at 69% is simply the biggest of the three — that is the pick.

What the model can't see

It reads only the stats of recent matches. It knows nothing about:

injuries & suspensions
the matchday lineup
motivation — cup, relegation, a title race
weather & pitch condition
in-game coaching decisions

So 69% does not mean "San Roque Lepe will win" — it means "on the available stats, this is the most likely result."

Statistical model based on expected goals (xG). For informational purposes only.

Probable lineups not yet announced

Starting lineups are usually confirmed ~1 hour before kickoff