Écija 0–3 Puente Genil: Result & Stats

Écija

0 – 3

Puente Genil

10/19/2019

Tercera División RFEF - Group 10 · Group 10 - 9Estadio Municipal San Pablo

Match Prediction

Statistical Prediction

Based on goals from last 18+ matches

Écija9%

×Draw18%

Puente Genil73%

✓ Correct in 50 of 100 matches — 6 more than always backing the home side

Model

49.7%

Always home

44.3%

The model picks a winner (home or away) for each finished match using only pre-kickoff data, then checks it against the real result: 49.7% correct across 106,786 matches, vs 44.3% for always backing the home side.

Home picks 50.7% correct · Away picks 47.3% correct

Football matches only. Past performance is not indicative of future results.

ÉcijaExpected goals in this matchPuente Genil

Expected goals in this match

What is xG?

Every shot is scored 0–1 by how likely it is to be a goal from that spot — a chance in the middle of the box ≈ 0.4, a long shot from a tight angle ≈ 0.03, a penalty ≈ 0.76. Add them up over a match and that is the xG.

The scoreline can lie: you can win 1-0 on a fluke while creating half the chances. xG shows who was really closer to scoring — and over a season it predicts results better than goals alone.

0.61

2.17

Écija

0.61

Puente Genil

2.17

Puente Genil creates 256% more chances

Season form · 18 home / 92 away

0.00

creates per match

1.33

3.00

allows per match

1.23

creates per match

Écija

0.00

Puente Genil

1.33

allows per match

Écija

3.00

Puente Genil

1.23

+0.00on par

finishing

+0.00on par

finishing

Écija+0.00on par

Puente Genil+0.00on par

Total goals

Over52
Under48

Close call

Both teams score

No60
Yes40

One side may not score

Score probability

Probability of each scoreline, %

Écija ↓

Puente Genil →

0–06%

0–114%

0–215%

0–311%

0–46%

1–04%

1–18%

1–29%

1–36%

1–44%

2–01%

2–13%

2–23%

2–32%

2–41%

3–00%

3–11%

3–21%

3–30%

3–40%

4–00%

4–10%

4–20%

4–30%

4–40%

Most likely 0–2 (15%) · grid covers 94% of scorelines

More markets

Total goals

OverUnder0.5

94%6%1.5

76%24%2.5

52%48%3.5

30%70%4.5

14%86%

Double chance

Écija or draw

27%

Écija or Puente Genil

82%

Draw or Puente Genil

91%

Winning margin

Écija wins by 2+

Puente Genil wins by 2+

48%

Team goals

Écija 1+ goals

46%

Écija 2+ goals

13%

Écija 3+ goals

Puente Genil 1+ goals

89%

Puente Genil 2+ goals

64%

Puente Genil 3+ goals

36%

Draw no bet

Écija (draw refunded)

11%

Puente Genil (draw refunded)

89%

Combos

Both score & 3+ goals

32%

Both score & under 3

Model probabilities, not odds. For information only.

How is this calculated?

Every number below comes from this match — nothing is made up.

Recent form of each side

Écija at home — creates 0.00, concedes 3.00 · 18 matches

Puente Genil away — creates 1.33, concedes 1.23 · 92 matches

⚑ Home and away form are counted separately — the home-field edge is already baked into these numbers.

Expected goals for this match

Écija attack 0.00 + Puente Genil defence 1.23 → ÷2 → 0.61

Puente Genil attack 1.33 + Écija defence 3.00 → ÷2 → 2.17

Each side's attack is blended with the other's defence, then averaged.

Chance of every scoreline

From those two numbers a Poisson distribution gives the probability of each exact score — the grid shown above.

The answer to "why 73%?"

Écija scores more

level

18%

Puente Genil scores more

73%

Puente Genil at 73% is simply the biggest of the three — that is the pick.

What the model can't see

It reads only the stats of recent matches. It knows nothing about:

injuries & suspensions
the matchday lineup
motivation — cup, relegation, a title race
weather & pitch condition
in-game coaching decisions

So 73% does not mean "Puente Genil will win" — it means "on the available stats, this is the most likely result."

Statistical model based on expected goals (xG). For informational purposes only.

Probable lineups not yet announced

Starting lineups are usually confirmed ~1 hour before kickoff