Écija 0–3 Lebrijana: Result & Stats

Écija

0 – 3

Lebrijana

4/4/2020

Tercera División RFEF - Group 10 · Group 10 - 33Estadio Municipal San Pablo

Match Prediction

Statistical Prediction

Based on goals from last 18+ matches

Écija18%

×Draw23%

Lebrijana60%

✓ Correct in 50 of 100 matches — 6 more than always backing the home side

Model

49.7%

Always home

44.3%

The model picks a winner (home or away) for each finished match using only pre-kickoff data, then checks it against the real result: 49.7% correct across 106,786 matches, vs 44.3% for always backing the home side.

Home picks 50.7% correct · Away picks 47.3% correct

Football matches only. Past performance is not indicative of future results.

ÉcijaExpected goals in this matchLebrijana

Expected goals in this match

What is xG?

Every shot is scored 0–1 by how likely it is to be a goal from that spot — a chance in the middle of the box ≈ 0.4, a long shot from a tight angle ≈ 0.03, a penalty ≈ 0.76. Add them up over a match and that is the xG.

The scoreline can lie: you can win 1-0 on a fluke while creating half the chances. xG shows who was really closer to scoring — and over a season it predicts results better than goals alone.

0.86

1.80

Écija

0.86

Lebrijana

1.80

Lebrijana creates 109% more chances

Season form · 18 home / 30 away

0.00

creates per match

0.60

3.00

allows per match

1.73

creates per match

Écija

0.00

Lebrijana

0.60

allows per match

Écija

3.00

Lebrijana

1.73

+0.00on par

finishing

+0.00on par

finishing

Écija+0.00on par

Lebrijana+0.00on par

Total goals

Under50
Over50

Close call

Both teams score

No52
Yes48

Close call

Score probability

Probability of each scoreline, %

Écija ↓

Lebrijana →

0–07%

0–113%

0–211%

0–37%

0–43%

1–06%

1–111%

1–210%

1–36%

1–43%

2–03%

2–15%

2–24%

2–33%

2–41%

3–01%

3–11%

3–21%

3–31%

3–40%

4–00%

4–10%

4–20%

4–30%

4–40%

Most likely 0–1 (13%) · grid covers 96% of scorelines

More markets

Total goals

OverUnder0.5

93%7%1.5

74%26%2.5

50%50%3.5

28%72%4.5

13%87%

Double chance

Écija or draw

40%

Écija or Lebrijana

77%

Draw or Lebrijana

82%

Winning margin

Écija wins by 2+

Lebrijana wins by 2+

34%

Team goals

Écija 1+ goals

58%

Écija 2+ goals

21%

Écija 3+ goals

Lebrijana 1+ goals

83%

Lebrijana 2+ goals

54%

Lebrijana 3+ goals

27%

Draw no bet

Écija (draw refunded)

23%

Lebrijana (draw refunded)

77%

Combos

Both score & 3+ goals

37%

Both score & under 3

11%

Model probabilities, not odds. For information only.

How is this calculated?

Every number below comes from this match — nothing is made up.

Recent form of each side

Écija at home — creates 0.00, concedes 3.00 · 18 matches

Lebrijana away — creates 0.60, concedes 1.73 · 30 matches

⚑ Home and away form are counted separately — the home-field edge is already baked into these numbers.

Expected goals for this match

Écija attack 0.00 + Lebrijana defence 1.73 → ÷2 → 0.86

Lebrijana attack 0.60 + Écija defence 3.00 → ÷2 → 1.80

Each side's attack is blended with the other's defence, then averaged.

Chance of every scoreline

From those two numbers a Poisson distribution gives the probability of each exact score — the grid shown above.

The answer to "why 60%?"

Écija scores more

18%

level

23%

Lebrijana scores more

60%

Lebrijana at 60% is simply the biggest of the three — that is the pick.

What the model can't see

It reads only the stats of recent matches. It knows nothing about:

injuries & suspensions
the matchday lineup
motivation — cup, relegation, a title race
weather & pitch condition
in-game coaching decisions

So 60% does not mean "Lebrijana will win" — it means "on the available stats, this is the most likely result."

Statistical model based on expected goals (xG). For informational purposes only.

Probable lineups not yet announced

Starting lineups are usually confirmed ~1 hour before kickoff