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Écija vs Coria CF — Tercera División RFEF - Group 10 2019

Écija
Écija
FT
0 – 3
Coria CF
Coria CF
9/1/2019Tercera División RFEF - Group 10Tercera División RFEF - Group 10 · Group 10 - 2Estadio Municipal San Pablo

Match Prediction

Statistical Prediction

Based on goals from last 18+ matches

Écija15%
×Draw21%
Coria CF64%
✓ Correct in 50 of 100 matches — 6 more than always backing the home side
Model
49.7%
Always home
44.3%

The model picks a winner (home or away) for each finished match using only pre-kickoff data, then checks it against the real result: 49.7% correct across 106,786 matches, vs 44.3% for always backing the home side.

Home picks 50.7% correct · Away picks 47.3% correct

Football matches only. Past performance is not indicative of future results.

Expected goals in this match

What is xG?

Every shot is scored 0–1 by how likely it is to be a goal from that spot — a chance in the middle of the box ≈ 0.4, a long shot from a tight angle ≈ 0.03, a penalty ≈ 0.76. Add them up over a match and that is the xG.

The scoreline can lie: you can win 1-0 on a fluke while creating half the chances. xG shows who was really closer to scoring — and over a season it predicts results better than goals alone.

Écija
0.83
Coria CF
1.98

Coria CF creates 139% more chances

Season form · 18 home / 95 away

creates per match

Écija
0.00
Coria CF
0.95

allows per match

Écija
3.00
Coria CF
1.67

finishing

Écija+0.00on par
Coria CF+0.00on par

Total goals

53%Over
  • Over53
  • Under47

3+ goals likely

Both teams score

51%No
  • No51
  • Yes49

Close call

Score probability

Probability of each scoreline, %

Écija ↓

Coria CF →
0
1
2
3
4
0
0–06%
0–112%
0–212%
0–38%
0–44%
1
1–05%
1–110%
1–210%
1–36%
1–43%
2
2–02%
2–14%
2–24%
2–33%
2–41%
3
3–01%
3–11%
3–21%
3–31%
3–40%
4
4–00%
4–10%
4–20%
4–30%
4–40%

Most likely 0–1 (12%) · grid covers 95% of scorelines

More markets

Total goals

OverUnder0.5
94%6%1.5
77%23%2.5
53%47%3.5
31%69%4.5
15%85%

Double chance

Écija or draw
36%
Écija or Coria CF
79%
Draw or Coria CF
85%

Winning margin

Écija wins by 2+
5%
Coria CF wins by 2+
39%

Team goals

Écija 1+ goals
56%
Écija 2+ goals
20%
Écija 3+ goals
5%
Coria CF 1+ goals
86%
Coria CF 2+ goals
59%
Coria CF 3+ goals
31%

Draw no bet

Écija (draw refunded)
19%
Coria CF (draw refunded)
81%

Combos

Both score & 3+ goals
39%
Both score & under 3
10%

Model probabilities, not odds. For information only.

How is this calculated?

Every number below comes from this match — nothing is made up.

1

Recent form of each side

Écija at home — creates 0.00, concedes 3.00 · 18 matches

Coria CF away — creates 0.95, concedes 1.67 · 95 matches

⚑ Home and away form are counted separately — the home-field edge is already baked into these numbers.

2

Expected goals for this match

Écija attack 0.00 + Coria CF defence 1.67 → ÷2 → 0.83

Coria CF attack 0.95 + Écija defence 3.00 → ÷2 → 1.98

Each side's attack is blended with the other's defence, then averaged.

3

Chance of every scoreline

From those two numbers a Poisson distribution gives the probability of each exact score — the grid shown above.

4

The answer to "why 64%?"

Écija scores more
15%
level
21%
Coria CF scores more
64%

Coria CF at 64% is simply the biggest of the three — that is the pick.

What the model can't see

It reads only the stats of recent matches. It knows nothing about:

  • injuries & suspensions
  • the matchday lineup
  • motivation — cup, relegation, a title race
  • weather & pitch condition
  • in-game coaching decisions

So 64% does not mean "Coria CF will win" — it means "on the available stats, this is the most likely result."

Statistical model based on expected goals (xG). For informational purposes only.

Probable lineups not yet announced

Starting lineups are usually confirmed ~1 hour before kickoff

Écija 0 – 3 Coria CF

Coria CF beat Écija 3-0 in Tercera División RFEF - Group 10 on September 1, 2019.

The match was played at Estadio Municipal San Pablo in Écija.