Écija vs Conil: Preview & Prediction

Écija

CANC

00:00

Conil

5/9/2020

Tercera División RFEF - Group 10 · Group 10 - 37Estadio Municipal San Pablo

Match Prediction

Statistical Prediction

Based on goals from last 18+ matches

Écija15%

×Draw22%

Conil63%

✓ Correct in 50 of 100 matches — 6 more than always backing the home side

Model

49.7%

Always home

44.3%

The model picks a winner (home or away) for each finished match using only pre-kickoff data, then checks it against the real result: 49.7% correct across 106,786 matches, vs 44.3% for always backing the home side.

Home picks 50.7% correct · Away picks 47.3% correct

Football matches only. Past performance is not indicative of future results.

ÉcijaExpected goals in this matchConil

Expected goals in this match

What is xG?

Every shot is scored 0–1 by how likely it is to be a goal from that spot — a chance in the middle of the box ≈ 0.4, a long shot from a tight angle ≈ 0.03, a penalty ≈ 0.76. Add them up over a match and that is the xG.

The scoreline can lie: you can win 1-0 on a fluke while creating half the chances. xG shows who was really closer to scoring — and over a season it predicts results better than goals alone.

0.80

1.91

Écija

0.80

Conil

1.91

Conil creates 139% more chances

Season form · 18 home / 111 away

0.00

creates per match

0.81

3.00

allows per match

1.60

creates per match

Écija

0.00

Conil

0.81

allows per match

Écija

3.00

Conil

1.60

+0.00on par

finishing

+0.00on par

finishing

Écija+0.00on par

Conil+0.00on par

Total goals

Over51
Under49

Close call

Both teams score

No53
Yes47

One side may not score

Score probability

Probability of each scoreline, %

Écija ↓

Conil →

0–07%

0–113%

0–212%

0–38%

0–44%

1–05%

1–110%

1–210%

1–36%

1–43%

2–02%

2–14%

2–24%

2–32%

2–41%

3–01%

3–11%

3–21%

3–31%

3–40%

4–00%

4–10%

4–20%

4–30%

4–40%

Most likely 0–1 (13%) · grid covers 96% of scorelines

More markets

Total goals

OverUnder0.5

93%7%1.5

75%25%2.5

51%49%3.5

29%71%4.5

14%86%

Double chance

Écija or draw

37%

Écija or Conil

78%

Draw or Conil

85%

Winning margin

Écija wins by 2+

Conil wins by 2+

38%

Team goals

Écija 1+ goals

55%

Écija 2+ goals

19%

Écija 3+ goals

Conil 1+ goals

85%

Conil 2+ goals

57%

Conil 3+ goals

30%

Draw no bet

Écija (draw refunded)

19%

Conil (draw refunded)

81%

Combos

Both score & 3+ goals

37%

Both score & under 3

10%

Model probabilities, not odds. For information only.

How is this calculated?

Every number below comes from this match — nothing is made up.

Recent form of each side

Écija at home — creates 0.00, concedes 3.00 · 18 matches

Conil away — creates 0.81, concedes 1.60 · 111 matches

⚑ Home and away form are counted separately — the home-field edge is already baked into these numbers.

Expected goals for this match

Écija attack 0.00 + Conil defence 1.60 → ÷2 → 0.80

Conil attack 0.81 + Écija defence 3.00 → ÷2 → 1.91

Each side's attack is blended with the other's defence, then averaged.

Chance of every scoreline

From those two numbers a Poisson distribution gives the probability of each exact score — the grid shown above.

The answer to "why 63%?"

Écija scores more

15%

level

22%

Conil scores more

63%

Conil at 63% is simply the biggest of the three — that is the pick.

What the model can't see

It reads only the stats of recent matches. It knows nothing about:

injuries & suspensions
the matchday lineup
motivation — cup, relegation, a title race
weather & pitch condition
in-game coaching decisions

So 63% does not mean "Conil will win" — it means "on the available stats, this is the most likely result."

Statistical model based on expected goals (xG). For informational purposes only.

Probable lineups not yet announced

Starting lineups are usually confirmed ~1 hour before kickoff

Écija vs Conil — Match Preview

Écija face Conil on May 9, 2020 in this Tercera División RFEF - Group 10 fixture. Get live scores, lineups, and real-time match statistics here when the game starts.

Écija host Conil at Estadio Municipal San Pablo.

Submit your prediction below — exact score, 1X2, total goals, and both teams to score. Earn XP for correct picks.

Écija vs Conil — Tercera División RFEF - Group 10 2019

Match Prediction

Statistical Prediction

Total goals

Both teams score

Head to Head

Écija vs Conil — Match Preview