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Écija vs Ceuta — Tercera División RFEF - Group 10 2019

Écija
Écija
FT
0 – 3
Ceuta
Ceuta
12/14/2019Tercera División RFEF - Group 10Tercera División RFEF - Group 10 · Group 10 - 17Estadio Municipal San Pablo

Match Prediction

Statistical Prediction

Based on goals from last 15+ matches

Écija4%
×Draw16%
Ceuta79%
✓ Correct in 50 of 100 matches — 6 more than always backing the home side
Model
49.7%
Always home
44.3%

The model picks a winner (home or away) for each finished match using only pre-kickoff data, then checks it against the real result: 49.7% correct across 106,786 matches, vs 44.3% for always backing the home side.

Home picks 50.7% correct · Away picks 47.3% correct

Football matches only. Past performance is not indicative of future results.

Expected goals in this match

What is xG?

Every shot is scored 0–1 by how likely it is to be a goal from that spot — a chance in the middle of the box ≈ 0.4, a long shot from a tight angle ≈ 0.03, a penalty ≈ 0.76. Add them up over a match and that is the xG.

The scoreline can lie: you can win 1-0 on a fluke while creating half the chances. xG shows who was really closer to scoring — and over a season it predicts results better than goals alone.

Écija
0.30
Ceuta
2.06

Ceuta creates 587% more chances

Season form · 18 home / 15 away

creates per match

Écija
0.00
Ceuta
1.13

allows per match

Écija
3.00
Ceuta
0.60

finishing

Écija+0.00on par
Ceuta+0.00on par

Total goals

58%Under
  • Under58
  • Over42

Fewer than 3 goals likely

Both teams score

77%No
  • No77
  • Yes23

One side may not score

Score probability

Probability of each scoreline, %

Écija ↓

Ceuta →
0
1
2
3
4
0
0–09%
0–120%
0–220%
0–314%
0–47%
1
1–03%
1–16%
1–26%
1–34%
1–42%
2
2–00%
2–11%
2–21%
2–31%
2–40%
3
3–00%
3–10%
3–20%
3–30%
3–40%
4
4–00%
4–10%
4–20%
4–30%
4–40%

Most likely 0–1 (20%) · grid covers 95% of scorelines

More markets

Total goals

OverUnder0.5
91%9%1.5
68%32%2.5
42%58%3.5
21%79%4.5
9%91%

Double chance

Écija or draw
21%
Écija or Ceuta
84%
Draw or Ceuta
96%

Winning margin

Écija wins by 2+
1%
Ceuta wins by 2+
53%

Team goals

Écija 1+ goals
26%
Écija 2+ goals
4%
Écija 3+ goals
0%
Ceuta 1+ goals
87%
Ceuta 2+ goals
61%
Ceuta 3+ goals
34%

Draw no bet

Écija (draw refunded)
5%
Ceuta (draw refunded)
95%

Combos

Both score & 3+ goals
17%
Both score & under 3
6%

Model probabilities, not odds. For information only.

How is this calculated?

Every number below comes from this match — nothing is made up.

1

Recent form of each side

Écija at home — creates 0.00, concedes 3.00 · 18 matches

Ceuta away — creates 1.13, concedes 0.60 · 15 matches

⚑ Home and away form are counted separately — the home-field edge is already baked into these numbers.

2

Expected goals for this match

Écija attack 0.00 + Ceuta defence 0.60 → ÷2 → 0.30

Ceuta attack 1.13 + Écija defence 3.00 → ÷2 → 2.06

Each side's attack is blended with the other's defence, then averaged.

3

Chance of every scoreline

From those two numbers a Poisson distribution gives the probability of each exact score — the grid shown above.

4

The answer to "why 79%?"

Écija scores more
4%
level
16%
Ceuta scores more
79%

Ceuta at 79% is simply the biggest of the three — that is the pick.

What the model can't see

It reads only the stats of recent matches. It knows nothing about:

  • injuries & suspensions
  • the matchday lineup
  • motivation — cup, relegation, a title race
  • weather & pitch condition
  • in-game coaching decisions

So 79% does not mean "Ceuta will win" — it means "on the available stats, this is the most likely result."

Statistical model based on expected goals (xG). For informational purposes only.

Probable lineups not yet announced

Starting lineups are usually confirmed ~1 hour before kickoff

Tercera División RFEF - Group 10: Écija 0–3 Ceuta

Ceuta beat Écija 3-0 in Tercera División RFEF - Group 10 on December 14, 2019.

The match was played at Estadio Municipal San Pablo in Écija.