Echallens 2–5 Vevey Sports: Result & Stats

Echallens

FT

2 – 5

HT: 1 – 1

Vevey Sports

5/20/2023

1. Liga Classic - Group 1 · Group 1 - 29Stade des 3 Sapins

Match Prediction

Statistical Prediction

Based on goals from last 56+ matches

Echallens42%

×Draw23%

Vevey Sports35%

✓ Correct in 50 of 100 matches — 5 more than always backing the home side

Model

50.3%

Always home

44.5%

The model picks a winner (home or away) for each finished match using only pre-kickoff data, then checks it against the real result: 50.3% correct across 582,450 matches, vs 44.5% for always backing the home side.

Home picks 50.5% correct · Away picks 49.5% correct

Football matches only. Past performance is not indicative of future results.

EchallensExpected goals in this matchVevey Sports

Expected goals in this match

What is xG?

Every shot is scored 0–1 by how likely it is to be a goal from that spot — a chance in the middle of the box ≈ 0.4, a long shot from a tight angle ≈ 0.03, a penalty ≈ 0.76. Add them up over a match and that is the xG.

The scoreline can lie: you can win 1-0 on a fluke while creating half the chances. xG shows who was really closer to scoring — and over a season it predicts results better than goals alone.

1.73

1.55

Echallens

1.73

Vevey Sports

1.55

Echallens creates 12% more chances

Season form · 88 home / 56 away

2.01

creates per match

1.63

1.48

allows per match

1.46

creates per match

Echallens

2.01

Vevey Sports

1.63

allows per match

Echallens

1.48

Vevey Sports

1.46

+0.00on par

finishing

+0.00on par

finishing

Echallens+0.00on par

Vevey Sports+0.00on par

Total goals

Over64
Under36

3+ goals likely

Both teams score

Yes65
No35

Both teams likely to score

Score probability

Probability of each scoreline, %

Echallens ↓

Vevey Sports →

0

1

2

3

4

0

0–04%

0–16%

0–25%

0–32%

0–41%

1

1–07%

1–110%

1–28%

1–34%

1–42%

2

2–06%

2–19%

2–27%

2–34%

2–41%

3

3–03%

3–15%

3–24%

3–32%

3–41%

4

4–01%

4–12%

4–22%

4–31%

4–40%

Most likely 1–1 (10%) · grid covers 95% of scorelines

More markets

Total goals

OverUnder0.5

96%4%1.5

84%16%2.5

64%36%3.5

41%59%4.5

23%77%

Double chance

Echallens or draw

65%

Echallens or Vevey Sports

77%

Draw or Vevey Sports

58%

Winning margin

Echallens wins by 2+

22%

Vevey Sports wins by 2+

17%

Team goals

Echallens 1+ goals

82%

Echallens 2+ goals

52%

Echallens 3+ goals

25%

Vevey Sports 1+ goals

79%

Vevey Sports 2+ goals

46%

Vevey Sports 3+ goals

20%

Draw no bet

Echallens (draw refunded)

55%

Vevey Sports (draw refunded)

45%

Combos

Both score & 3+ goals

55%

Both score & under 3

10%

Model probabilities, not odds. For information only.

How is this calculated?

Every number below comes from this match — nothing is made up.

1

Recent form of each side

Echallens at home — creates 2.01, concedes 1.48 · 88 matches

Vevey Sports away — creates 1.63, concedes 1.46 · 56 matches

⚑ Home and away form are counted separately — the home-field edge is already baked into these numbers.

2

Expected goals for this match

Echallens attack 2.01 + Vevey Sports defence 1.46 → ÷2 → 1.73

Vevey Sports attack 1.63 + Echallens defence 1.48 → ÷2 → 1.55

Each side's attack is blended with the other's defence, then averaged.

3

Chance of every scoreline

From those two numbers a Poisson distribution gives the probability of each exact score — the grid shown above.

4

The answer to "why 42%?"

Echallens scores more

42%

level

23%

Vevey Sports scores more

35%

Echallens at 42% is simply the biggest of the three — that is the pick.

What the model can't see

It reads only the stats of recent matches. It knows nothing about:

injuries & suspensions
the matchday lineup
motivation — cup, relegation, a title race
weather & pitch condition
in-game coaching decisions

So 42% does not mean "Echallens will win" — it means "on the available stats, this is the most likely result."

Statistical model based on expected goals (xG). For informational purposes only.

Probable lineups not yet announced

Starting lineups are usually confirmed ~1 hour before kickoff