Echallens 2–0 Thun II: Result & Stats

Echallens

FT

2 – 0

Thun II

10/2/2021

1. Liga Classic - Group 1 · Group 1 - 7Stade des 3 Sapins

Match Prediction

Statistical Prediction

Based on goals from last 13+ matches

Echallens47%

×Draw22%

Thun II31%

✓ Correct in 50 of 100 matches — 5 more than always backing the home side

Model

50%

Always home

44.6%

The model picks a winner (home or away) for each finished match using only pre-kickoff data, then checks it against the real result: 50% correct across 579,794 matches, vs 44.6% for always backing the home side.

Home picks 50.2% correct · Away picks 49.2% correct

Football matches only. Past performance is not indicative of future results.

EchallensExpected goals in this matchThun II

Expected goals in this match

What is xG?

Every shot is scored 0–1 by how likely it is to be a goal from that spot — a chance in the middle of the box ≈ 0.4, a long shot from a tight angle ≈ 0.03, a penalty ≈ 0.76. Add them up over a match and that is the xG.

The scoreline can lie: you can win 1-0 on a fluke while creating half the chances. xG shows who was really closer to scoring — and over a season it predicts results better than goals alone.

1.89

1.51

Echallens

1.89

Thun II

1.51

Echallens creates 25% more chances

Season form · 88 home / 13 away

2.01

creates per match

1.54

1.48

allows per match

1.77

creates per match

Echallens

2.01

Thun II

1.54

allows per match

Echallens

1.48

Thun II

1.77

+0.00on par

finishing

+0.00on par

finishing

Echallens+0.00on par

Thun II+0.00on par

Total goals

Over66
Under34

3+ goals likely

Both teams score

Yes66
No34

Both teams likely to score

Score probability

Probability of each scoreline, %

Echallens ↓

Thun II →

0

1

2

3

4

0

0–03%

0–15%

0–24%

0–32%

0–41%

1

1–06%

1–110%

1–27%

1–34%

1–41%

2

2–06%

2–19%

2–27%

2–33%

2–41%

3

3–04%

3–16%

3–24%

3–32%

3–41%

4

4–02%

4–13%

4–22%

4–31%

4–40%

Most likely 1–1 (10%) · grid covers 94% of scorelines

More markets

Total goals

OverUnder0.5

97%3%1.5

85%15%2.5

66%34%3.5

44%56%4.5

25%75%

Double chance

Echallens or draw

69%

Echallens or Thun II

78%

Draw or Thun II

53%

Winning margin

Echallens wins by 2+

26%

Thun II wins by 2+

14%

Team goals

Echallens 1+ goals

85%

Echallens 2+ goals

56%

Echallens 3+ goals

29%

Thun II 1+ goals

78%

Thun II 2+ goals

44%

Thun II 3+ goals

19%

Draw no bet

Echallens (draw refunded)

60%

Thun II (draw refunded)

40%

Combos

Both score & 3+ goals

57%

Both score & under 3

10%

Model probabilities, not odds. For information only.

How is this calculated?

Every number below comes from this match — nothing is made up.

1

Recent form of each side

Echallens at home — creates 2.01, concedes 1.48 · 88 matches

Thun II away — creates 1.54, concedes 1.77 · 13 matches

⚑ Home and away form are counted separately — the home-field edge is already baked into these numbers.

2

Expected goals for this match

Echallens attack 2.01 + Thun II defence 1.77 → ÷2 → 1.89

Thun II attack 1.54 + Echallens defence 1.48 → ÷2 → 1.51

Each side's attack is blended with the other's defence, then averaged.

3

Chance of every scoreline

From those two numbers a Poisson distribution gives the probability of each exact score — the grid shown above.

4

The answer to "why 47%?"

Echallens scores more

47%

level

22%

Thun II scores more

31%

Echallens at 47% is simply the biggest of the three — that is the pick.

What the model can't see

It reads only the stats of recent matches. It knows nothing about:

injuries & suspensions
the matchday lineup
motivation — cup, relegation, a title race
weather & pitch condition
in-game coaching decisions

So 47% does not mean "Echallens will win" — it means "on the available stats, this is the most likely result."

Statistical model based on expected goals (xG). For informational purposes only.

Probable lineups not yet announced

Starting lineups are usually confirmed ~1 hour before kickoff