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Echallens vs Pully Football — 1. Liga Classic - Group 1 2019

Echallens
Echallens
FT
4 – 2
HT: 1 – 2
Pully Football
Pully Football
8/12/20231. Liga Classic - Group 11. Liga Classic - Group 1 · Group 1 - 2Stade des 3 Sapins

Match Prediction

Statistical Prediction

Based on goals from last 15+ matches

Echallens58%
×Draw20%
Pully Football22%
✓ Correct in 50 of 100 matches — 5 more than always backing the home side
Model
50.3%
Always home
44.5%

The model picks a winner (home or away) for each finished match using only pre-kickoff data, then checks it against the real result: 50.3% correct across 582,450 matches, vs 44.5% for always backing the home side.

Home picks 50.5% correct · Away picks 49.5% correct

Football matches only. Past performance is not indicative of future results.

Expected goals in this match

What is xG?

Every shot is scored 0–1 by how likely it is to be a goal from that spot — a chance in the middle of the box ≈ 0.4, a long shot from a tight angle ≈ 0.03, a penalty ≈ 0.76. Add them up over a match and that is the xG.

The scoreline can lie: you can win 1-0 on a fluke while creating half the chances. xG shows who was really closer to scoring — and over a season it predicts results better than goals alone.

Echallens
2.21
Pully Football
1.30

Echallens creates 70% more chances

Season form · 88 home / 15 away

creates per match

Echallens
2.01
Pully Football
1.13

allows per match

Echallens
1.48
Pully Football
2.40

finishing

Echallens+0.00on par
Pully Football+0.00on par

Total goals

68%Over
  • Over68
  • Under32

3+ goals likely

Both teams score

65%Yes
  • Yes65
  • No35

Both teams likely to score

Score probability

Probability of each scoreline, %

Echallens ↓

Pully Football →
0
1
2
3
4
0
0–03%
0–14%
0–23%
0–31%
0–40%
1
1–07%
1–19%
1–26%
1–32%
1–41%
2
2–07%
2–110%
2–26%
2–33%
2–41%
3
3–05%
3–17%
3–25%
3–32%
3–41%
4
4–03%
4–14%
4–23%
4–31%
4–40%

Most likely 2–1 (10%) · grid covers 92% of scorelines

More markets

Total goals

OverUnder0.5
97%3%1.5
86%14%2.5
68%32%3.5
46%54%4.5
27%73%

Double chance

Echallens or draw
78%
Echallens or Pully Football
80%
Draw or Pully Football
42%

Winning margin

Echallens wins by 2+
36%
Pully Football wins by 2+
9%

Team goals

Echallens 1+ goals
89%
Echallens 2+ goals
65%
Echallens 3+ goals
38%
Pully Football 1+ goals
73%
Pully Football 2+ goals
37%
Pully Football 3+ goals
14%

Draw no bet

Echallens (draw refunded)
72%
Pully Football (draw refunded)
28%

Combos

Both score & 3+ goals
56%
Both score & under 3
9%

Model probabilities, not odds. For information only.

How is this calculated?

Every number below comes from this match — nothing is made up.

1

Recent form of each side

Echallens at home — creates 2.01, concedes 1.48 · 88 matches

Pully Football away — creates 1.13, concedes 2.40 · 15 matches

⚑ Home and away form are counted separately — the home-field edge is already baked into these numbers.

2

Expected goals for this match

Echallens attack 2.01 + Pully Football defence 2.40 → ÷2 → 2.21

Pully Football attack 1.13 + Echallens defence 1.48 → ÷2 → 1.30

Each side's attack is blended with the other's defence, then averaged.

3

Chance of every scoreline

From those two numbers a Poisson distribution gives the probability of each exact score — the grid shown above.

4

The answer to "why 58%?"

Echallens scores more
58%
level
20%
Pully Football scores more
22%

Echallens at 58% is simply the biggest of the three — that is the pick.

What the model can't see

It reads only the stats of recent matches. It knows nothing about:

  • injuries & suspensions
  • the matchday lineup
  • motivation — cup, relegation, a title race
  • weather & pitch condition
  • in-game coaching decisions

So 58% does not mean "Echallens will win" — it means "on the available stats, this is the most likely result."

Statistical model based on expected goals (xG). For informational purposes only.

Probable lineups not yet announced

Starting lineups are usually confirmed ~1 hour before kickoff

Match Recap: Echallens vs Pully Football

Echallens beat Pully Football 4-2 in 1. Liga Classic - Group 1 on August 12, 2023.

The match was played at Stade des 3 Sapins in Echallens.