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Echallens vs Meyrin — 1. Liga Classic - Group 1 2019

Echallens
Echallens
FT
1 – 2
HT: 0 – 1
Meyrin
Meyrin
5/3/20251. Liga Classic - Group 11. Liga Classic - Group 1 · Group 1 - 27Stade des 3 Sapins

Match Prediction

Statistical Prediction

Based on goals from last 87+ matches

Echallens43%
×Draw22%
Meyrin34%
✓ Correct in 50 of 100 matches — 5 more than always backing the home side
Model
50.3%
Always home
44.5%

The model picks a winner (home or away) for each finished match using only pre-kickoff data, then checks it against the real result: 50.3% correct across 582,450 matches, vs 44.5% for always backing the home side.

Home picks 50.5% correct · Away picks 49.5% correct

Football matches only. Past performance is not indicative of future results.

Expected goals in this match

What is xG?

Every shot is scored 0–1 by how likely it is to be a goal from that spot — a chance in the middle of the box ≈ 0.4, a long shot from a tight angle ≈ 0.03, a penalty ≈ 0.76. Add them up over a match and that is the xG.

The scoreline can lie: you can win 1-0 on a fluke while creating half the chances. xG shows who was really closer to scoring — and over a season it predicts results better than goals alone.

Echallens
1.84
Meyrin
1.61

Echallens creates 14% more chances

Season form · 88 home / 87 away

creates per match

Echallens
2.01
Meyrin
1.74

allows per match

Echallens
1.48
Meyrin
1.68

finishing

Echallens+0.00on par
Meyrin+0.00on par

Total goals

67%Over
  • Over67
  • Under33

3+ goals likely

Both teams score

67%Yes
  • Yes67
  • No33

Both teams likely to score

Score probability

Probability of each scoreline, %

Echallens ↓

Meyrin →
0
1
2
3
4
0
0–03%
0–15%
0–24%
0–32%
0–41%
1
1–06%
1–19%
1–28%
1–34%
1–42%
2
2–05%
2–19%
2–27%
2–34%
2–42%
3
3–03%
3–15%
3–24%
3–32%
3–41%
4
4–02%
4–12%
4–22%
4–31%
4–40%

Most likely 1–1 (9%) · grid covers 94% of scorelines

More markets

Total goals

OverUnder0.5
97%3%1.5
86%14%2.5
67%33%3.5
45%55%4.5
26%74%

Double chance

Echallens or draw
66%
Echallens or Meyrin
78%
Draw or Meyrin
57%

Winning margin

Echallens wins by 2+
23%
Meyrin wins by 2+
17%

Team goals

Echallens 1+ goals
84%
Echallens 2+ goals
55%
Echallens 3+ goals
28%
Meyrin 1+ goals
80%
Meyrin 2+ goals
48%
Meyrin 3+ goals
22%

Draw no bet

Echallens (draw refunded)
56%
Meyrin (draw refunded)
44%

Combos

Both score & 3+ goals
58%
Both score & under 3
9%

Model probabilities, not odds. For information only.

How is this calculated?

Every number below comes from this match — nothing is made up.

1

Recent form of each side

Echallens at home — creates 2.01, concedes 1.48 · 88 matches

Meyrin away — creates 1.74, concedes 1.68 · 87 matches

⚑ Home and away form are counted separately — the home-field edge is already baked into these numbers.

2

Expected goals for this match

Echallens attack 2.01 + Meyrin defence 1.68 → ÷2 → 1.84

Meyrin attack 1.74 + Echallens defence 1.48 → ÷2 → 1.61

Each side's attack is blended with the other's defence, then averaged.

3

Chance of every scoreline

From those two numbers a Poisson distribution gives the probability of each exact score — the grid shown above.

4

The answer to "why 43%?"

Echallens scores more
43%
level
22%
Meyrin scores more
34%

Echallens at 43% is simply the biggest of the three — that is the pick.

What the model can't see

It reads only the stats of recent matches. It knows nothing about:

  • injuries & suspensions
  • the matchday lineup
  • motivation — cup, relegation, a title race
  • weather & pitch condition
  • in-game coaching decisions

So 43% does not mean "Echallens will win" — it means "on the available stats, this is the most likely result."

Statistical model based on expected goals (xG). For informational purposes only.

Probable lineups not yet announced

Starting lineups are usually confirmed ~1 hour before kickoff

Match Recap: Echallens vs Meyrin

Meyrin beat Echallens 2-1 in 1. Liga Classic - Group 1 on May 3, 2025.

The match was played at Stade des 3 Sapins in Echallens.