Echallens 4–3 Lausanne Sport II: Result & Stats

Echallens

FT

4 – 3

HT: 2 – 0

Lausanne Sport II

5/25/2024

1. Liga Classic - Group 1 · Group 1 - 30Stade des 3 Sapins

Match Prediction

Statistical Prediction

Based on goals from last 58+ matches

Echallens41%

×Draw23%

Lausanne Sport II36%

✓ Correct in 50 of 100 matches — 5 more than always backing the home side

Model

50.3%

Always home

44.5%

The model picks a winner (home or away) for each finished match using only pre-kickoff data, then checks it against the real result: 50.3% correct across 582,450 matches, vs 44.5% for always backing the home side.

Home picks 50.5% correct · Away picks 49.5% correct

Football matches only. Past performance is not indicative of future results.

EchallensExpected goals in this matchLausanne Sport II

Expected goals in this match

What is xG?

Every shot is scored 0–1 by how likely it is to be a goal from that spot — a chance in the middle of the box ≈ 0.4, a long shot from a tight angle ≈ 0.03, a penalty ≈ 0.76. Add them up over a match and that is the xG.

The scoreline can lie: you can win 1-0 on a fluke while creating half the chances. xG shows who was really closer to scoring — and over a season it predicts results better than goals alone.

1.77

1.66

Echallens

1.77

Lausanne Sport II

1.66

Both teams create about equally

Season form · 88 home / 58 away

2.01

creates per match

1.83

1.48

allows per match

1.53

creates per match

Echallens

2.01

Lausanne Sport II

1.83

allows per match

Echallens

1.48

Lausanne Sport II

1.53

+0.00on par

finishing

+0.00on par

finishing

Echallens+0.00on par

Lausanne Sport II+0.00on par

Total goals

Over66
Under34

3+ goals likely

Both teams score

Yes67
No33

Both teams likely to score

Score probability

Probability of each scoreline, %

Echallens ↓

Lausanne Sport II →

0

1

2

3

4

0

0–03%

0–15%

0–24%

0–32%

0–41%

1

1–06%

1–110%

1–28%

1–34%

1–42%

2

2–05%

2–18%

2–27%

2–34%

2–42%

3

3–03%

3–15%

3–24%

3–32%

3–41%

4

4–01%

4–12%

4–22%

4–31%

4–40%

Most likely 1–1 (10%) · grid covers 94% of scorelines

More markets

Total goals

OverUnder0.5

97%3%1.5

86%14%2.5

66%34%3.5

45%55%4.5

26%74%

Double chance

Echallens or draw

64%

Echallens or Lausanne Sport II

77%

Draw or Lausanne Sport II

59%

Winning margin

Echallens wins by 2+

21%

Lausanne Sport II wins by 2+

18%

Team goals

Echallens 1+ goals

83%

Echallens 2+ goals

53%

Echallens 3+ goals

26%

Lausanne Sport II 1+ goals

81%

Lausanne Sport II 2+ goals

49%

Lausanne Sport II 3+ goals

23%

Draw no bet

Echallens (draw refunded)

53%

Lausanne Sport II (draw refunded)

47%

Combos

Both score & 3+ goals

58%

Both score & under 3

10%

Model probabilities, not odds. For information only.

How is this calculated?

Every number below comes from this match — nothing is made up.

1

Recent form of each side

Echallens at home — creates 2.01, concedes 1.48 · 88 matches

Lausanne Sport II away — creates 1.83, concedes 1.53 · 58 matches

⚑ Home and away form are counted separately — the home-field edge is already baked into these numbers.

2

Expected goals for this match

Echallens attack 2.01 + Lausanne Sport II defence 1.53 → ÷2 → 1.77

Lausanne Sport II attack 1.83 + Echallens defence 1.48 → ÷2 → 1.66

Each side's attack is blended with the other's defence, then averaged.

3

Chance of every scoreline

From those two numbers a Poisson distribution gives the probability of each exact score — the grid shown above.

4

The answer to "why 41%?"

Echallens scores more

41%

level

23%

Lausanne Sport II scores more

36%

Echallens at 41% is simply the biggest of the three — that is the pick.

What the model can't see

It reads only the stats of recent matches. It knows nothing about:

injuries & suspensions
the matchday lineup
motivation — cup, relegation, a title race
weather & pitch condition
in-game coaching decisions

So 41% does not mean "Echallens will win" — it means "on the available stats, this is the most likely result."

Statistical model based on expected goals (xG). For informational purposes only.

Probable lineups not yet announced

Starting lineups are usually confirmed ~1 hour before kickoff