EC São Bernardo vs Marília — League #605 2026
Match Prediction
Statistical Prediction
Based on goals from last 24+ matches
EC São Bernardo42%
Marília28%✓ Correct in 49 of 100 matches — 5 more than always backing the home side
The model picks a winner (home or away) for each finished match using only pre-kickoff data, then checks it against the real result: 48.6% correct across 15,072 matches, vs 43.8% for always backing the home side.
Home picks 50.1% correct · Away picks 45.3% correct
Football matches only. Past performance is not indicative of future results.
Expected goals in this match
What is xG?
Every shot is scored 0–1 by how likely it is to be a goal from that spot — a chance in the middle of the box ≈ 0.4, a long shot from a tight angle ≈ 0.03, a penalty ≈ 0.76. Add them up over a match and that is the xG.
The scoreline can lie: you can win 1-0 on a fluke while creating half the chances. xG shows who was really closer to scoring — and over a season it predicts results better than goals alone.
EC São Bernardo creates 32% more chances
Season form · 25 home / 24 away
creates per match
allows per match
finishing
Total goals
- Under67
- Over33
Fewer than 3 goals likely
Both teams score
- No60
- Yes40
One side may not score
Score probability
Probability of each scoreline, %
EC São Bernardo ↓
Most likely 1–0 (15%) · grid covers 99% of scorelines
More markets
Total goals
Double chance
Winning margin
Team goals
Draw no bet
Combos
Model probabilities, not odds. For information only.
How is this calculated?
Every number below comes from this match — nothing is made up.
Recent form of each side
EC São Bernardo at home — creates 1.28, concedes 0.76 · 25 matches
Marília away — creates 1.00, concedes 1.04 · 24 matches
⚑ Home and away form are counted separately — the home-field edge is already baked into these numbers.
Expected goals for this match
EC São Bernardo attack 1.28 + Marília defence 1.04 → ÷2 → 1.16
Marília attack 1.00 + EC São Bernardo defence 0.76 → ÷2 → 0.88
Each side's attack is blended with the other's defence, then averaged.
Chance of every scoreline
From those two numbers a Poisson distribution gives the probability of each exact score — the grid shown above.
The answer to "why 42%?"
EC São Bernardo at 42% is simply the biggest of the three — that is the pick.
What the model can't see
It reads only the stats of recent matches. It knows nothing about:
- injuries & suspensions
- the matchday lineup
- motivation — cup, relegation, a title race
- weather & pitch condition
- in-game coaching decisions
So 42% does not mean "EC São Bernardo will win" — it means "on the available stats, this is the most likely result."
Statistical model based on expected goals (xG). For informational purposes only.
Match Events
If points are equal: 1. Goal difference 2. Goals scored 3. Head-to-head
P = Played · W = Won · D = Drawn · L = Lost · GF = Goals for · GA = Goals against · GD = Goal difference · Pts = Points
EC São Bernardo host Marília on Friday, 8 March 2024 at 18:00. The match is part of the League #605 2026/2027 season.
EC São Bernardo 2 – 2 Marília
EC São Bernardo and Marília drew 2-2 in League #605 on March 8, 2024.
Goals: Douglas (33'), Gustavo Santana (40'), Raphael Macena (43', 45+1').
The match was played at Estádio Municipal de Santana do Parnaíba in Santana de Parnaíba, São Paulo.