EC São Bernardo U20 3–1 União Suzano U20

EC São Bernardo U20

FT

3 – 1

HT: 2 – 0

União Suzano U20

Unknown 66', 36', 17'

Unknown 89'

9/26/2025

Paulista - U20 · Round of 16Estádio Bruno José Daniel

Match Prediction

Statistical Prediction

Based on goals from last 18+ matches

EC São Bernardo U2051%

×Draw25%

União Suzano U2024%

✓ Correct in 50 of 100 matches — 5 more than always backing the home side

Model

50.2%

Always home

44.5%

The model picks a winner (home or away) for each finished match using only pre-kickoff data, then checks it against the real result: 50.2% correct across 585,598 matches, vs 44.5% for always backing the home side.

Home picks 50.5% correct · Away picks 49.3% correct

Football matches only. Past performance is not indicative of future results.

EC São Bernardo U20Expected goals in this matchUnião Suzano U20

Expected goals in this match

What is xG?

Every shot is scored 0–1 by how likely it is to be a goal from that spot — a chance in the middle of the box ≈ 0.4, a long shot from a tight angle ≈ 0.03, a penalty ≈ 0.76. Add them up over a match and that is the xG.

The scoreline can lie: you can win 1-0 on a fluke while creating half the chances. xG shows who was really closer to scoring — and over a season it predicts results better than goals alone.

1.60

1.00

EC São Bernardo U20

1.60

União Suzano U20

1.00

EC São Bernardo U20 creates 60% more chances

Season form · 18 home / 22 away

1.61

creates per match

0.95

1.06

allows per match

1.59

creates per match

EC São Bernardo U20

1.61

União Suzano U20

0.95

allows per match

EC São Bernardo U20

1.06

União Suzano U20

1.59

+0.00on par

finishing

+0.00on par

finishing

EC São Bernardo U20+0.00on par

União Suzano U20+0.00on par

Total goals

Under52
Over48

Close call

Both teams score

No50
Yes50

Close call

Score probability

Probability of each scoreline, %

EC São Bernardo U20 ↓

União Suzano U20 →

0

1

2

3

4

0

0–07%

0–17%

0–24%

0–31%

0–40%

1

1–012%

1–112%

1–26%

1–32%

1–40%

2

2–010%

2–110%

2–25%

2–32%

2–40%

3

3–05%

3–15%

3–23%

3–31%

3–40%

4

4–02%

4–12%

4–21%

4–30%

4–40%

Most likely 1–0 (12%) · grid covers 97% of scorelines

More markets

Total goals

OverUnder0.5

93%7%1.5

73%27%2.5

48%52%3.5

26%74%4.5

12%88%

Double chance

EC São Bernardo U20 or draw

76%

EC São Bernardo U20 or União Suzano U20

75%

Draw or União Suzano U20

49%

Winning margin

EC São Bernardo U20 wins by 2+

27%

União Suzano U20 wins by 2+

8%

Team goals

EC São Bernardo U20 1+ goals

80%

EC São Bernardo U20 2+ goals

47%

EC São Bernardo U20 3+ goals

22%

União Suzano U20 1+ goals

63%

União Suzano U20 2+ goals

26%

União Suzano U20 3+ goals

8%

Draw no bet

EC São Bernardo U20 (draw refunded)

68%

União Suzano U20 (draw refunded)

32%

Combos

Both score & 3+ goals

39%

Both score & under 3

12%

Model probabilities, not odds. For information only.

How is this calculated?

Every number below comes from this match — nothing is made up.

1

Recent form of each side

EC São Bernardo U20 at home — creates 1.61, concedes 1.06 · 18 matches

União Suzano U20 away — creates 0.95, concedes 1.59 · 22 matches

⚑ Home and away form are counted separately — the home-field edge is already baked into these numbers.

2

Expected goals for this match

EC São Bernardo U20 attack 1.61 + União Suzano U20 defence 1.59 → ÷2 → 1.60

União Suzano U20 attack 0.95 + EC São Bernardo U20 defence 1.06 → ÷2 → 1.00

Each side's attack is blended with the other's defence, then averaged.

3

Chance of every scoreline

From those two numbers a Poisson distribution gives the probability of each exact score — the grid shown above.

4

The answer to "why 51%?"

EC São Bernardo U20 scores more

51%

level

25%

União Suzano U20 scores more

24%

EC São Bernardo U20 at 51% is simply the biggest of the three — that is the pick.

What the model can't see

It reads only the stats of recent matches. It knows nothing about:

injuries & suspensions
the matchday lineup
motivation — cup, relegation, a title race
weather & pitch condition
in-game coaching decisions

So 51% does not mean "EC São Bernardo U20 will win" — it means "on the available stats, this is the most likely result."

Statistical model based on expected goals (xG). For informational purposes only.

Match Events

17'

36'

66'

89'

Probable lineups not yet announced

Starting lineups are usually confirmed ~1 hour before kickoff