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EC São Bernardo U20 vs Ponte Preta U20 — Paulista - U20 2026

EC São Bernardo U20
EC São Bernardo U20
FT
0 – 1
HT: 0 – 0
Ponte Preta U20
Ponte Preta U20
Ghabriel Hiago 88'
4/26/2025Paulista - U20Paulista - U20 · 1st Phase - 1Ibrachina Arena

Match Prediction

Statistical Prediction

Based on goals from last 18+ matches

EC São Bernardo U2043%
×Draw26%
Ponte Preta U2031%
✓ Correct in 50 of 100 matches — 5 more than always backing the home side
Model
50.2%
Always home
44.5%

The model picks a winner (home or away) for each finished match using only pre-kickoff data, then checks it against the real result: 50.2% correct across 585,598 matches, vs 44.5% for always backing the home side.

Home picks 50.5% correct · Away picks 49.3% correct

Football matches only. Past performance is not indicative of future results.

Expected goals in this match

What is xG?

Every shot is scored 0–1 by how likely it is to be a goal from that spot — a chance in the middle of the box ≈ 0.4, a long shot from a tight angle ≈ 0.03, a penalty ≈ 0.76. Add them up over a match and that is the xG.

The scoreline can lie: you can win 1-0 on a fluke while creating half the chances. xG shows who was really closer to scoring — and over a season it predicts results better than goals alone.

EC São Bernardo U20
1.48
Ponte Preta U20
1.21

EC São Bernardo U20 creates 22% more chances

Season form · 18 home / 20 away

creates per match

EC São Bernardo U20
1.61
Ponte Preta U20
1.35

allows per match

EC São Bernardo U20
1.06
Ponte Preta U20
1.35

finishing

EC São Bernardo U20+0.00on par
Ponte Preta U20+0.00on par

Total goals

Under: 50Over: 5050%Under
  • Under50
  • Over50

Close call

Both teams score

Yes: 54No: 4654%Yes
  • Yes54
  • No46

Both teams likely to score

Score probability

Probability of each scoreline, %

EC São Bernardo U20 ↓

Ponte Preta U20 →
0
1
2
3
4
0
0–07%
0–18%
0–25%
0–32%
0–41%
1
1–010%
1–112%
1–27%
1–33%
1–41%
2
2–07%
2–19%
2–25%
2–32%
2–41%
3
3–04%
3–14%
3–23%
3–31%
3–40%
4
4–01%
4–12%
4–21%
4–30%
4–40%

Most likely 1–1 (12%) · grid covers 98% of scorelines

More markets

Total goals

OverUnder0.5
93%7%1.5
75%25%2.5
50%50%3.5
28%72%4.5
13%87%

Double chance

EC São Bernardo U20 or draw
69%
EC São Bernardo U20 or Ponte Preta U20
74%
Draw or Ponte Preta U20
57%

Winning margin

EC São Bernardo U20 wins by 2+
21%
Ponte Preta U20 wins by 2+
13%

Team goals

EC São Bernardo U20 1+ goals
77%
EC São Bernardo U20 2+ goals
43%
EC São Bernardo U20 3+ goals
19%
Ponte Preta U20 1+ goals
70%
Ponte Preta U20 2+ goals
34%
Ponte Preta U20 3+ goals
12%

Draw no bet

EC São Bernardo U20 (draw refunded)
58%
Ponte Preta U20 (draw refunded)
42%

Combos

Both score & 3+ goals
42%
Both score & under 3
12%

Model probabilities, not odds. For information only.

How is this calculated?

Every number below comes from this match — nothing is made up.

1

Recent form of each side

EC São Bernardo U20 at home — creates 1.61, concedes 1.06 · 18 matches

Ponte Preta U20 away — creates 1.35, concedes 1.35 · 20 matches

⚑ Home and away form are counted separately — the home-field edge is already baked into these numbers.

2

Expected goals for this match

EC São Bernardo U20 attack 1.61 + Ponte Preta U20 defence 1.35 → ÷2 → 1.48

Ponte Preta U20 attack 1.35 + EC São Bernardo U20 defence 1.06 → ÷2 → 1.21

Each side's attack is blended with the other's defence, then averaged.

3

Chance of every scoreline

From those two numbers a Poisson distribution gives the probability of each exact score — the grid shown above.

4

The answer to "why 43%?"

EC São Bernardo U20 scores more
43%
level
26%
Ponte Preta U20 scores more
31%

EC São Bernardo U20 at 43% is simply the biggest of the three — that is the pick.

What the model can't see

It reads only the stats of recent matches. It knows nothing about:

  • injuries & suspensions
  • the matchday lineup
  • motivation — cup, relegation, a title race
  • weather & pitch condition
  • in-game coaching decisions

So 43% does not mean "EC São Bernardo U20 will win" — it means "on the available stats, this is the most likely result."

Statistical model based on expected goals (xG). For informational purposes only.

Match Events

88'
Ghabriel Hiago

Probable lineups not yet announced

Starting lineups are usually confirmed ~1 hour before kickoff

Paulista - U20: EC São Bernardo U20 0–1 Ponte Preta U20

Ponte Preta U20 beat EC São Bernardo U20 1-0 in Paulista - U20 on April 26, 2025.

Goals: Ghabriel Hiago (88').

The match was played at Ibrachina Arena in São Paulo, São Paulo.