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EC São Bernardo U20 vs Itapirense U20 — Paulista - U20 2026

EC São Bernardo U20
EC São Bernardo U20
FT
5 – 1
HT: 2 – 0
Itapirense U20
Itapirense U20
B. Ferreira 90+3'
Thiago Campos 72'
G. Mendes 70'
M. Miranda 30', 15'
Unknown 90'
7/25/2025Paulista - U20Paulista - U20 · 1st Phase - 13Estádio Bruno José Daniel

Match Prediction

Statistical Prediction

Based on goals from last 17+ matches

EC São Bernardo U2059%
×Draw21%
Itapirense U2020%
✓ Correct in 50 of 100 matches — 5 more than always backing the home side
Model
50.2%
Always home
44.5%

The model picks a winner (home or away) for each finished match using only pre-kickoff data, then checks it against the real result: 50.2% correct across 585,598 matches, vs 44.5% for always backing the home side.

Home picks 50.5% correct · Away picks 49.3% correct

Football matches only. Past performance is not indicative of future results.

Expected goals in this match

What is xG?

Every shot is scored 0–1 by how likely it is to be a goal from that spot — a chance in the middle of the box ≈ 0.4, a long shot from a tight angle ≈ 0.03, a penalty ≈ 0.76. Add them up over a match and that is the xG.

The scoreline can lie: you can win 1-0 on a fluke while creating half the chances. xG shows who was really closer to scoring — and over a season it predicts results better than goals alone.

EC São Bernardo U20
2.04
Itapirense U20
1.09

EC São Bernardo U20 creates 87% more chances

Season form · 18 home / 17 away

creates per match

EC São Bernardo U20
1.61
Itapirense U20
1.12

allows per match

EC São Bernardo U20
1.06
Itapirense U20
2.47

finishing

EC São Bernardo U20+0.00on par
Itapirense U20+0.00on par

Total goals

Over: 60Under: 4060%Over
  • Over60
  • Under40

3+ goals likely

Both teams score

Yes: 58No: 4258%Yes
  • Yes58
  • No42

Both teams likely to score

Score probability

Probability of each scoreline, %

EC São Bernardo U20 ↓

Itapirense U20 →
0
1
2
3
4
0
0–04%
0–15%
0–23%
0–31%
0–40%
1
1–09%
1–110%
1–25%
1–32%
1–41%
2
2–09%
2–110%
2–25%
2–32%
2–41%
3
3–06%
3–17%
3–24%
3–31%
3–40%
4
4–03%
4–13%
4–22%
4–31%
4–40%

Most likely 1–1 (10%) · grid covers 94% of scorelines

More markets

Total goals

OverUnder0.5
96%4%1.5
82%18%2.5
60%40%3.5
38%62%4.5
20%80%

Double chance

EC São Bernardo U20 or draw
80%
EC São Bernardo U20 or Itapirense U20
79%
Draw or Itapirense U20
41%

Winning margin

EC São Bernardo U20 wins by 2+
36%
Itapirense U20 wins by 2+
7%

Team goals

EC São Bernardo U20 1+ goals
87%
EC São Bernardo U20 2+ goals
60%
EC São Bernardo U20 3+ goals
33%
Itapirense U20 1+ goals
66%
Itapirense U20 2+ goals
30%
Itapirense U20 3+ goals
10%

Draw no bet

EC São Bernardo U20 (draw refunded)
75%
Itapirense U20 (draw refunded)
25%

Combos

Both score & 3+ goals
48%
Both score & under 3
10%

Model probabilities, not odds. For information only.

How is this calculated?

Every number below comes from this match — nothing is made up.

1

Recent form of each side

EC São Bernardo U20 at home — creates 1.61, concedes 1.06 · 18 matches

Itapirense U20 away — creates 1.12, concedes 2.47 · 17 matches

⚑ Home and away form are counted separately — the home-field edge is already baked into these numbers.

2

Expected goals for this match

EC São Bernardo U20 attack 1.61 + Itapirense U20 defence 2.47 → ÷2 → 2.04

Itapirense U20 attack 1.12 + EC São Bernardo U20 defence 1.06 → ÷2 → 1.09

Each side's attack is blended with the other's defence, then averaged.

3

Chance of every scoreline

From those two numbers a Poisson distribution gives the probability of each exact score — the grid shown above.

4

The answer to "why 59%?"

EC São Bernardo U20 scores more
59%
level
21%
Itapirense U20 scores more
20%

EC São Bernardo U20 at 59% is simply the biggest of the three — that is the pick.

What the model can't see

It reads only the stats of recent matches. It knows nothing about:

  • injuries & suspensions
  • the matchday lineup
  • motivation — cup, relegation, a title race
  • weather & pitch condition
  • in-game coaching decisions

So 59% does not mean "EC São Bernardo U20 will win" — it means "on the available stats, this is the most likely result."

Statistical model based on expected goals (xG). For informational purposes only.

Match Events

15'
M. Miranda
30'
M. Miranda
70'
G. Mendes
72'
Thiago Campos
90'
90+3'
90+3'
B. Ferreira

Probable lineups not yet announced

Starting lineups are usually confirmed ~1 hour before kickoff

Paulista - U20: EC São Bernardo U20 5–1 Itapirense U20

EC São Bernardo U20 beat Itapirense U20 5-1 in Paulista - U20 on July 25, 2025.

Goals: M. Miranda (15', 30'), G. Mendes (70'), Thiago Campos (72'), ? (90'), B. Ferreira (90+3').

The match was played at Estádio Bruno José Daniel in Santo André, São Paulo.