EC São Bernardo U20 1–0 Inter Limeira U20

EC São Bernardo U20

FT

1 – 0

HT: 1 – 0

Inter Limeira U20

K. Chaudar 13'

5/9/2025

Paulista - U20 · 1st Phase - 3Estádio Bruno José Daniel

Match Prediction

Statistical Prediction

Based on goals from last 16+ matches

EC São Bernardo U2047%

×Draw25%

Inter Limeira U2028%

✓ Correct in 50 of 100 matches — 5 more than always backing the home side

Model

50.2%

Always home

44.5%

The model picks a winner (home or away) for each finished match using only pre-kickoff data, then checks it against the real result: 50.2% correct across 585,598 matches, vs 44.5% for always backing the home side.

Home picks 50.5% correct · Away picks 49.3% correct

Football matches only. Past performance is not indicative of future results.

EC São Bernardo U20Expected goals in this matchInter Limeira U20

Expected goals in this match

What is xG?

Every shot is scored 0–1 by how likely it is to be a goal from that spot — a chance in the middle of the box ≈ 0.4, a long shot from a tight angle ≈ 0.03, a penalty ≈ 0.76. Add them up over a match and that is the xG.

The scoreline can lie: you can win 1-0 on a fluke while creating half the chances. xG shows who was really closer to scoring — and over a season it predicts results better than goals alone.

1.56

1.16

EC São Bernardo U20

1.56

Inter Limeira U20

1.16

EC São Bernardo U20 creates 34% more chances

Season form · 18 home / 16 away

1.61

creates per match

1.25

1.06

allows per match

1.50

creates per match

EC São Bernardo U20

1.61

Inter Limeira U20

1.25

allows per match

EC São Bernardo U20

1.06

Inter Limeira U20

1.50

+0.00on par

finishing

+0.00on par

finishing

EC São Bernardo U20+0.00on par

Inter Limeira U20+0.00on par

Total goals

Over51
Under49

Close call

Both teams score

Yes54
No46

Both teams likely to score

Score probability

Probability of each scoreline, %

EC São Bernardo U20 ↓

Inter Limeira U20 →

0

1

2

3

4

0

0–07%

0–18%

0–24%

0–32%

0–40%

1

1–010%

1–112%

1–27%

1–33%

1–41%

2

2–08%

2–19%

2–25%

2–32%

2–41%

3

3–04%

3–15%

3–23%

3–31%

3–40%

4

4–02%

4–12%

4–21%

4–30%

4–40%

Most likely 1–1 (12%) · grid covers 97% of scorelines

More markets

Total goals

OverUnder0.5

93%7%1.5

75%25%2.5

51%49%3.5

29%71%4.5

14%86%

Double chance

EC São Bernardo U20 or draw

72%

EC São Bernardo U20 or Inter Limeira U20

75%

Draw or Inter Limeira U20

53%

Winning margin

EC São Bernardo U20 wins by 2+

24%

Inter Limeira U20 wins by 2+

11%

Team goals

EC São Bernardo U20 1+ goals

79%

EC São Bernardo U20 2+ goals

46%

EC São Bernardo U20 3+ goals

21%

Inter Limeira U20 1+ goals

69%

Inter Limeira U20 2+ goals

32%

Inter Limeira U20 3+ goals

11%

Draw no bet

EC São Bernardo U20 (draw refunded)

62%

Inter Limeira U20 (draw refunded)

38%

Combos

Both score & 3+ goals

42%

Both score & under 3

12%

Model probabilities, not odds. For information only.

How is this calculated?

Every number below comes from this match — nothing is made up.

1

Recent form of each side

EC São Bernardo U20 at home — creates 1.61, concedes 1.06 · 18 matches

Inter Limeira U20 away — creates 1.25, concedes 1.50 · 16 matches

⚑ Home and away form are counted separately — the home-field edge is already baked into these numbers.

2

Expected goals for this match

EC São Bernardo U20 attack 1.61 + Inter Limeira U20 defence 1.50 → ÷2 → 1.56

Inter Limeira U20 attack 1.25 + EC São Bernardo U20 defence 1.06 → ÷2 → 1.16

Each side's attack is blended with the other's defence, then averaged.

3

Chance of every scoreline

From those two numbers a Poisson distribution gives the probability of each exact score — the grid shown above.

4

The answer to "why 47%?"

EC São Bernardo U20 scores more

47%

level

25%

Inter Limeira U20 scores more

28%

EC São Bernardo U20 at 47% is simply the biggest of the three — that is the pick.

What the model can't see

It reads only the stats of recent matches. It knows nothing about:

injuries & suspensions
the matchday lineup
motivation — cup, relegation, a title race
weather & pitch condition
in-game coaching decisions

So 47% does not mean "EC São Bernardo U20 will win" — it means "on the available stats, this is the most likely result."

Statistical model based on expected goals (xG). For informational purposes only.

Match Events

13'

K. Chaudar

Probable lineups not yet announced

Starting lineups are usually confirmed ~1 hour before kickoff