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EC São Bernardo U20 vs Aster Brasil SP U20 — Paulista - U20 2026

EC São Bernardo U20
EC São Bernardo U20
FT
1 – 0
HT: 0 – 0
Aster Brasil SP U20
Aster Brasil SP U20
Cria 62'
4/26/2024Paulista - U20Paulista - U20 · 1st Phase - 3Estádio Municipal Gíglio Portugal Pichinin

Match Prediction

Statistical Prediction

Based on goals from last 5+ matches

EC São Bernardo U2048%
×Draw28%
Aster Brasil SP U2024%
✓ Correct in 50 of 100 matches — 5 more than always backing the home side
Model
50.2%
Always home
44.5%

The model picks a winner (home or away) for each finished match using only pre-kickoff data, then checks it against the real result: 50.2% correct across 585,598 matches, vs 44.5% for always backing the home side.

Home picks 50.5% correct · Away picks 49.3% correct

Football matches only. Past performance is not indicative of future results.

Expected goals in this match

What is xG?

Every shot is scored 0–1 by how likely it is to be a goal from that spot — a chance in the middle of the box ≈ 0.4, a long shot from a tight angle ≈ 0.03, a penalty ≈ 0.76. Add them up over a match and that is the xG.

The scoreline can lie: you can win 1-0 on a fluke while creating half the chances. xG shows who was really closer to scoring — and over a season it predicts results better than goals alone.

EC São Bernardo U20
1.31
Aster Brasil SP U20
0.83

EC São Bernardo U20 creates 58% more chances

Season form · 18 home / 5 away

creates per match

EC São Bernardo U20
1.61
Aster Brasil SP U20
0.60

allows per match

EC São Bernardo U20
1.06
Aster Brasil SP U20
1.00

finishing

EC São Bernardo U20+0.00on par
Aster Brasil SP U20+0.00on par

Total goals

Under: 64Over: 3664%Under
  • Under64
  • Over36

Fewer than 3 goals likely

Both teams score

No: 59Yes: 4159%No
  • No59
  • Yes41

One side may not score

Score probability

Probability of each scoreline, %

EC São Bernardo U20 ↓

Aster Brasil SP U20 →
0
1
2
3
4
0
0–012%
0–110%
0–24%
0–31%
0–40%
1
1–015%
1–113%
1–25%
1–31%
1–40%
2
2–010%
2–18%
2–23%
2–31%
2–40%
3
3–04%
3–14%
3–22%
3–30%
3–40%
4
4–01%
4–11%
4–20%
4–30%
4–40%

Most likely 1–0 (15%) · grid covers 99% of scorelines

More markets

Total goals

OverUnder0.5
88%12%1.5
63%37%2.5
36%64%3.5
17%83%4.5
7%93%

Double chance

EC São Bernardo U20 or draw
76%
EC São Bernardo U20 or Aster Brasil SP U20
72%
Draw or Aster Brasil SP U20
52%

Winning margin

EC São Bernardo U20 wins by 2+
22%
Aster Brasil SP U20 wins by 2+
8%

Team goals

EC São Bernardo U20 1+ goals
73%
EC São Bernardo U20 2+ goals
38%
EC São Bernardo U20 3+ goals
14%
Aster Brasil SP U20 1+ goals
56%
Aster Brasil SP U20 2+ goals
20%
Aster Brasil SP U20 3+ goals
5%

Draw no bet

EC São Bernardo U20 (draw refunded)
67%
Aster Brasil SP U20 (draw refunded)
33%

Combos

Both score & 3+ goals
28%
Both score & under 3
13%

Model probabilities, not odds. For information only.

How is this calculated?

Every number below comes from this match — nothing is made up.

1

Recent form of each side

EC São Bernardo U20 at home — creates 1.61, concedes 1.06 · 18 matches

Aster Brasil SP U20 away — creates 0.60, concedes 1.00 · 5 matches

⚑ Home and away form are counted separately — the home-field edge is already baked into these numbers.

2

Expected goals for this match

EC São Bernardo U20 attack 1.61 + Aster Brasil SP U20 defence 1.00 → ÷2 → 1.31

Aster Brasil SP U20 attack 0.60 + EC São Bernardo U20 defence 1.06 → ÷2 → 0.83

Each side's attack is blended with the other's defence, then averaged.

3

Chance of every scoreline

From those two numbers a Poisson distribution gives the probability of each exact score — the grid shown above.

4

The answer to "why 48%?"

EC São Bernardo U20 scores more
48%
level
28%
Aster Brasil SP U20 scores more
24%

EC São Bernardo U20 at 48% is simply the biggest of the three — that is the pick.

What the model can't see

It reads only the stats of recent matches. It knows nothing about:

  • injuries & suspensions
  • the matchday lineup
  • motivation — cup, relegation, a title race
  • weather & pitch condition
  • in-game coaching decisions

So 48% does not mean "EC São Bernardo U20 will win" — it means "on the available stats, this is the most likely result."

Statistical model based on expected goals (xG). For informational purposes only.

Match Events

62'
Cria

Probable lineups not yet announced

Starting lineups are usually confirmed ~1 hour before kickoff

Paulista - U20: EC São Bernardo U20 1–0 Aster Brasil SP U20

EC São Bernardo U20 beat Aster Brasil SP U20 1-0 in Paulista - U20 on April 26, 2024.

Goals: Cria (62').

The match was played at Estádio Municipal Gíglio Portugal Pichinin in São Bernardo do Campo, São Paulo.