EC São Bernardo U20 2–2 SC Paulinense SP U20

EC São Bernardo U20

FT

2 – 2

HT: 2 – 0

SC Paulinense SP U20

Mario 17'

T. Santos 13'

J. Pedro 90+3'

Paulinho 85'

5/29/2026

Paulista - U20 · Round 1

Match Prediction

Statistical Prediction

Based on goals from last 4+ matches

EC São Bernardo U2053%

×Draw24%

SC Paulinense SP U2023%

✓ Correct in 50 of 100 matches — 5 more than always backing the home side

Model

50.2%

Always home

44.5%

The model picks a winner (home or away) for each finished match using only pre-kickoff data, then checks it against the real result: 50.2% correct across 585,598 matches, vs 44.5% for always backing the home side.

Home picks 50.5% correct · Away picks 49.3% correct

Football matches only. Past performance is not indicative of future results.

EC São Bernardo U20Expected goals in this matchSC Paulinense SP U20

Expected goals in this match

What is xG?

Every shot is scored 0–1 by how likely it is to be a goal from that spot — a chance in the middle of the box ≈ 0.4, a long shot from a tight angle ≈ 0.03, a penalty ≈ 0.76. Add them up over a match and that is the xG.

The scoreline can lie: you can win 1-0 on a fluke while creating half the chances. xG shows who was really closer to scoring — and over a season it predicts results better than goals alone.

1.68

1.03

EC São Bernardo U20

1.68

SC Paulinense SP U20

1.03

EC São Bernardo U20 creates 63% more chances

Season form · 18 home / 4 away

1.61

creates per match

1.00

1.06

allows per match

1.75

creates per match

EC São Bernardo U20

1.61

SC Paulinense SP U20

1.00

allows per match

EC São Bernardo U20

1.06

SC Paulinense SP U20

1.75

+0.00on par

finishing

+0.00on par

finishing

EC São Bernardo U20+0.00on par

SC Paulinense SP U20+0.00on par

Total goals

Over51
Under49

Close call

Both teams score

Yes52
No48

Close call

Score probability

Probability of each scoreline, %

EC São Bernardo U20 ↓

SC Paulinense SP U20 →

0

1

2

3

4

0

0–07%

0–17%

0–24%

0–31%

0–40%

1

1–011%

1–112%

1–26%

1–32%

1–41%

2

2–09%

2–110%

2–25%

2–32%

2–40%

3

3–05%

3–15%

3–23%

3–31%

3–40%

4

4–02%

4–12%

4–21%

4–30%

4–40%

Most likely 1–1 (12%) · grid covers 97% of scorelines

More markets

Total goals

OverUnder0.5

93%7%1.5

75%25%2.5

51%49%3.5

29%71%4.5

14%86%

Double chance

EC São Bernardo U20 or draw

77%

EC São Bernardo U20 or SC Paulinense SP U20

76%

Draw or SC Paulinense SP U20

47%

Winning margin

EC São Bernardo U20 wins by 2+

28%

SC Paulinense SP U20 wins by 2+

8%

Team goals

EC São Bernardo U20 1+ goals

81%

EC São Bernardo U20 2+ goals

50%

EC São Bernardo U20 3+ goals

24%

SC Paulinense SP U20 1+ goals

64%

SC Paulinense SP U20 2+ goals

28%

SC Paulinense SP U20 3+ goals

9%

Draw no bet

EC São Bernardo U20 (draw refunded)

69%

SC Paulinense SP U20 (draw refunded)

31%

Combos

Both score & 3+ goals

41%

Both score & under 3

12%

Model probabilities, not odds. For information only.

How is this calculated?

Every number below comes from this match — nothing is made up.

1

Recent form of each side

EC São Bernardo U20 at home — creates 1.61, concedes 1.06 · 18 matches

SC Paulinense SP U20 away — creates 1.00, concedes 1.75 · 4 matches

⚑ Home and away form are counted separately — the home-field edge is already baked into these numbers.

2

Expected goals for this match

EC São Bernardo U20 attack 1.61 + SC Paulinense SP U20 defence 1.75 → ÷2 → 1.68

SC Paulinense SP U20 attack 1.00 + EC São Bernardo U20 defence 1.06 → ÷2 → 1.03

Each side's attack is blended with the other's defence, then averaged.

3

Chance of every scoreline

From those two numbers a Poisson distribution gives the probability of each exact score — the grid shown above.

4

The answer to "why 53%?"

EC São Bernardo U20 scores more

53%

level

24%

SC Paulinense SP U20 scores more

23%

EC São Bernardo U20 at 53% is simply the biggest of the three — that is the pick.

What the model can't see

It reads only the stats of recent matches. It knows nothing about:

injuries & suspensions
the matchday lineup
motivation — cup, relegation, a title race
weather & pitch condition
in-game coaching decisions

So 53% does not mean "EC São Bernardo U20 will win" — it means "on the available stats, this is the most likely result."

Statistical model based on expected goals (xG). For informational purposes only.

Match Events

13'

T. Santos

17'

Mario

85'

Paulinho

90+3'

J. Pedro

Probable lineups not yet announced

Starting lineups are usually confirmed ~1 hour before kickoff