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Ebusua Dwarfs vs Soccer Intellectuals — Division One League 2025

Ebusua Dwarfs
Ebusua Dwarfs
FT
1 – 0
HT: 0 – 0
Soccer Intellectuals
Soccer Intellectuals
11/16/2025Division One LeagueDivision One League · Round 7

Match Prediction

Statistical Prediction

Based on goals from last 15+ matches

Ebusua Dwarfs61%
×Draw25%
Soccer Intellectuals14%
✓ Correct in 50 of 100 matches — 6 more than always backing the home side
Model
49.7%
Always home
44.3%

The model picks a winner (home or away) for each finished match using only pre-kickoff data, then checks it against the real result: 49.7% correct across 106,786 matches, vs 44.3% for always backing the home side.

Home picks 50.7% correct · Away picks 47.3% correct

Football matches only. Past performance is not indicative of future results.

Expected goals in this match

What is xG?

Every shot is scored 0–1 by how likely it is to be a goal from that spot — a chance in the middle of the box ≈ 0.4, a long shot from a tight angle ≈ 0.03, a penalty ≈ 0.76. Add them up over a match and that is the xG.

The scoreline can lie: you can win 1-0 on a fluke while creating half the chances. xG shows who was really closer to scoring — and over a season it predicts results better than goals alone.

Ebusua Dwarfs
1.57
Soccer Intellectuals
0.60

Ebusua Dwarfs creates 162% more chances

Season form · 15 home / 15 away

creates per match

Ebusua Dwarfs
1.67
Soccer Intellectuals
0.53

allows per match

Ebusua Dwarfs
0.67
Soccer Intellectuals
1.47

finishing

Ebusua Dwarfs+0.00on par
Soccer Intellectuals+0.00on par

Total goals

63%Under
  • Under63
  • Over37

Fewer than 3 goals likely

Both teams score

64%No
  • No64
  • Yes36

One side may not score

Score probability

Probability of each scoreline, %

Ebusua Dwarfs ↓

Soccer Intellectuals →
0
1
2
3
4
0
0–011%
0–17%
0–22%
0–30%
0–40%
1
1–018%
1–111%
1–23%
1–31%
1–40%
2
2–014%
2–18%
2–23%
2–31%
2–40%
3
3–07%
3–14%
3–21%
3–30%
3–40%
4
4–03%
4–12%
4–21%
4–30%
4–40%

Most likely 1–0 (18%) · grid covers 98% of scorelines

More markets

Total goals

OverUnder0.5
89%11%1.5
64%36%2.5
37%63%3.5
17%83%4.5
7%93%

Double chance

Ebusua Dwarfs or draw
86%
Ebusua Dwarfs or Soccer Intellectuals
75%
Draw or Soccer Intellectuals
39%

Winning margin

Ebusua Dwarfs wins by 2+
33%
Soccer Intellectuals wins by 2+
3%

Team goals

Ebusua Dwarfs 1+ goals
79%
Ebusua Dwarfs 2+ goals
46%
Ebusua Dwarfs 3+ goals
21%
Soccer Intellectuals 1+ goals
45%
Soccer Intellectuals 2+ goals
12%
Soccer Intellectuals 3+ goals
2%

Draw no bet

Ebusua Dwarfs (draw refunded)
81%
Soccer Intellectuals (draw refunded)
19%

Combos

Both score & 3+ goals
25%
Both score & under 3
11%

Model probabilities, not odds. For information only.

How is this calculated?

Every number below comes from this match — nothing is made up.

1

Recent form of each side

Ebusua Dwarfs at home — creates 1.67, concedes 0.67 · 15 matches

Soccer Intellectuals away — creates 0.53, concedes 1.47 · 15 matches

⚑ Home and away form are counted separately — the home-field edge is already baked into these numbers.

2

Expected goals for this match

Ebusua Dwarfs attack 1.67 + Soccer Intellectuals defence 1.47 → ÷2 → 1.57

Soccer Intellectuals attack 0.53 + Ebusua Dwarfs defence 0.67 → ÷2 → 0.60

Each side's attack is blended with the other's defence, then averaged.

3

Chance of every scoreline

From those two numbers a Poisson distribution gives the probability of each exact score — the grid shown above.

4

The answer to "why 61%?"

Ebusua Dwarfs scores more
61%
level
25%
Soccer Intellectuals scores more
14%

Ebusua Dwarfs at 61% is simply the biggest of the three — that is the pick.

What the model can't see

It reads only the stats of recent matches. It knows nothing about:

  • injuries & suspensions
  • the matchday lineup
  • motivation — cup, relegation, a title race
  • weather & pitch condition
  • in-game coaching decisions

So 61% does not mean "Ebusua Dwarfs will win" — it means "on the available stats, this is the most likely result."

Statistical model based on expected goals (xG). For informational purposes only.

Probable lineups not yet announced

Starting lineups are usually confirmed ~1 hour before kickoff

Match Recap: Ebusua Dwarfs vs Soccer Intellectuals

Ebusua Dwarfs beat Soccer Intellectuals 1-0 in Division One League on November 16, 2025.