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Ebusua Dwarfs vs Sefwi All Stars — Division One League 2025

Ebusua Dwarfs
Ebusua Dwarfs
FT
1 – 2
HT: 0 – 1
Sefwi All Stars
Sefwi All Stars
12/21/2025Division One LeagueDivision One League · Round 12

Match Prediction

Statistical Prediction

Based on goals from last 15+ matches

Ebusua Dwarfs63%
×Draw24%
Sefwi All Stars12%
✓ Correct in 50 of 100 matches — 6 more than always backing the home side
Model
49.7%
Always home
44.3%

The model picks a winner (home or away) for each finished match using only pre-kickoff data, then checks it against the real result: 49.7% correct across 106,786 matches, vs 44.3% for always backing the home side.

Home picks 50.7% correct · Away picks 47.3% correct

Football matches only. Past performance is not indicative of future results.

Expected goals in this match

What is xG?

Every shot is scored 0–1 by how likely it is to be a goal from that spot — a chance in the middle of the box ≈ 0.4, a long shot from a tight angle ≈ 0.03, a penalty ≈ 0.76. Add them up over a match and that is the xG.

The scoreline can lie: you can win 1-0 on a fluke while creating half the chances. xG shows who was really closer to scoring — and over a season it predicts results better than goals alone.

Ebusua Dwarfs
1.60
Sefwi All Stars
0.54

Ebusua Dwarfs creates 196% more chances

Season form · 15 home / 15 away

creates per match

Ebusua Dwarfs
1.67
Sefwi All Stars
0.40

allows per match

Ebusua Dwarfs
0.67
Sefwi All Stars
1.53

finishing

Ebusua Dwarfs+0.00on par
Sefwi All Stars+0.00on par

Total goals

64%Under
  • Under64
  • Over36

Fewer than 3 goals likely

Both teams score

67%No
  • No67
  • Yes33

One side may not score

Score probability

Probability of each scoreline, %

Ebusua Dwarfs ↓

Sefwi All Stars →
0
1
2
3
4
0
0–012%
0–16%
0–22%
0–30%
0–40%
1
1–019%
1–110%
1–23%
1–30%
1–40%
2
2–015%
2–18%
2–22%
2–30%
2–40%
3
3–08%
3–14%
3–21%
3–30%
3–40%
4
4–03%
4–12%
4–20%
4–30%
4–40%

Most likely 1–0 (19%) · grid covers 98% of scorelines

More markets

Total goals

OverUnder0.5
88%12%1.5
63%37%2.5
36%64%3.5
17%83%4.5
6%94%

Double chance

Ebusua Dwarfs or draw
88%
Ebusua Dwarfs or Sefwi All Stars
76%
Draw or Sefwi All Stars
37%

Winning margin

Ebusua Dwarfs wins by 2+
35%
Sefwi All Stars wins by 2+
3%

Team goals

Ebusua Dwarfs 1+ goals
80%
Ebusua Dwarfs 2+ goals
47%
Ebusua Dwarfs 3+ goals
22%
Sefwi All Stars 1+ goals
42%
Sefwi All Stars 2+ goals
10%
Sefwi All Stars 3+ goals
2%

Draw no bet

Ebusua Dwarfs (draw refunded)
84%
Sefwi All Stars (draw refunded)
16%

Combos

Both score & 3+ goals
23%
Both score & under 3
10%

Model probabilities, not odds. For information only.

How is this calculated?

Every number below comes from this match — nothing is made up.

1

Recent form of each side

Ebusua Dwarfs at home — creates 1.67, concedes 0.67 · 15 matches

Sefwi All Stars away — creates 0.40, concedes 1.53 · 15 matches

⚑ Home and away form are counted separately — the home-field edge is already baked into these numbers.

2

Expected goals for this match

Ebusua Dwarfs attack 1.67 + Sefwi All Stars defence 1.53 → ÷2 → 1.60

Sefwi All Stars attack 0.40 + Ebusua Dwarfs defence 0.67 → ÷2 → 0.54

Each side's attack is blended with the other's defence, then averaged.

3

Chance of every scoreline

From those two numbers a Poisson distribution gives the probability of each exact score — the grid shown above.

4

The answer to "why 63%?"

Ebusua Dwarfs scores more
63%
level
24%
Sefwi All Stars scores more
12%

Ebusua Dwarfs at 63% is simply the biggest of the three — that is the pick.

What the model can't see

It reads only the stats of recent matches. It knows nothing about:

  • injuries & suspensions
  • the matchday lineup
  • motivation — cup, relegation, a title race
  • weather & pitch condition
  • in-game coaching decisions

So 63% does not mean "Ebusua Dwarfs will win" — it means "on the available stats, this is the most likely result."

Statistical model based on expected goals (xG). For informational purposes only.

Probable lineups not yet announced

Starting lineups are usually confirmed ~1 hour before kickoff

Ebusua Dwarfs 1 – 2 Sefwi All Stars

Sefwi All Stars beat Ebusua Dwarfs 2-1 in Division One League on December 21, 2025.