Ebusua Dwarfs 2–0 PAC Academy: Result & Stats

Ebusua Dwarfs

FT

2 – 0

HT: 1 – 0

PAC Academy

11/2/2025

Division One League · Round 5

Match Prediction

Statistical Prediction

Based on goals from last 15+ matches

Ebusua Dwarfs55%

×Draw27%

PAC Academy18%

✓ Correct in 50 of 100 matches — 6 more than always backing the home side

Model

49.7%

Always home

44.3%

The model picks a winner (home or away) for each finished match using only pre-kickoff data, then checks it against the real result: 49.7% correct across 106,786 matches, vs 44.3% for always backing the home side.

Home picks 50.7% correct · Away picks 47.3% correct

Football matches only. Past performance is not indicative of future results.

Ebusua DwarfsExpected goals in this matchPAC Academy

Expected goals in this match

What is xG?

Every shot is scored 0–1 by how likely it is to be a goal from that spot — a chance in the middle of the box ≈ 0.4, a long shot from a tight angle ≈ 0.03, a penalty ≈ 0.76. Add them up over a match and that is the xG.

The scoreline can lie: you can win 1-0 on a fluke while creating half the chances. xG shows who was really closer to scoring — and over a season it predicts results better than goals alone.

1.44

0.70

Ebusua Dwarfs

1.44

PAC Academy

0.70

Ebusua Dwarfs creates 106% more chances

Season form · 15 home / 15 away

1.67

creates per match

0.73

0.67

allows per match

1.20

creates per match

Ebusua Dwarfs

1.67

PAC Academy

0.73

allows per match

Ebusua Dwarfs

0.67

PAC Academy

1.20

+0.00on par

finishing

+0.00on par

finishing

Ebusua Dwarfs+0.00on par

PAC Academy+0.00on par

Total goals

Under64
Over36

Fewer than 3 goals likely

Both teams score

No62
Yes38

One side may not score

Score probability

Probability of each scoreline, %

Ebusua Dwarfs ↓

PAC Academy →

0

1

2

3

4

0

0–012%

0–18%

0–23%

0–31%

0–40%

1

1–017%

1–112%

1–24%

1–31%

1–40%

2

2–012%

2–19%

2–23%

2–31%

2–40%

3

3–06%

3–14%

3–21%

3–30%

3–40%

4

4–02%

4–11%

4–21%

4–30%

4–40%

Most likely 1–0 (17%) · grid covers 98% of scorelines

More markets

Total goals

OverUnder0.5

88%12%1.5

63%37%2.5

36%64%3.5

17%83%4.5

7%93%

Double chance

Ebusua Dwarfs or draw

82%

Ebusua Dwarfs or PAC Academy

73%

Draw or PAC Academy

45%

Winning margin

Ebusua Dwarfs wins by 2+

28%

PAC Academy wins by 2+

5%

Team goals

Ebusua Dwarfs 1+ goals

76%

Ebusua Dwarfs 2+ goals

42%

Ebusua Dwarfs 3+ goals

18%

PAC Academy 1+ goals

50%

PAC Academy 2+ goals

16%

PAC Academy 3+ goals

3%

Draw no bet

Ebusua Dwarfs (draw refunded)

75%

PAC Academy (draw refunded)

25%

Combos

Both score & 3+ goals

27%

Both score & under 3

12%

Model probabilities, not odds. For information only.

How is this calculated?

Every number below comes from this match — nothing is made up.

1

Recent form of each side

Ebusua Dwarfs at home — creates 1.67, concedes 0.67 · 15 matches

PAC Academy away — creates 0.73, concedes 1.20 · 15 matches

⚑ Home and away form are counted separately — the home-field edge is already baked into these numbers.

2

Expected goals for this match

Ebusua Dwarfs attack 1.67 + PAC Academy defence 1.20 → ÷2 → 1.44

PAC Academy attack 0.73 + Ebusua Dwarfs defence 0.67 → ÷2 → 0.70

Each side's attack is blended with the other's defence, then averaged.

3

Chance of every scoreline

From those two numbers a Poisson distribution gives the probability of each exact score — the grid shown above.

4

The answer to "why 55%?"

Ebusua Dwarfs scores more

55%

level

27%

PAC Academy scores more

18%

Ebusua Dwarfs at 55% is simply the biggest of the three — that is the pick.

What the model can't see

It reads only the stats of recent matches. It knows nothing about:

injuries & suspensions
the matchday lineup
motivation — cup, relegation, a title race
weather & pitch condition
in-game coaching decisions

So 55% does not mean "Ebusua Dwarfs will win" — it means "on the available stats, this is the most likely result."

Statistical model based on expected goals (xG). For informational purposes only.

Probable lineups not yet announced

Starting lineups are usually confirmed ~1 hour before kickoff