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Ebusua Dwarfs vs Liberty Professionals — Premier League 2019

Ebusua Dwarfs
Ebusua Dwarfs
FT
2 – 1
Liberty Professionals
Liberty Professionals
E. Afram 90+6'
S. Abubakar 21'
M. Laryea 11'
5/23/2021Premier LeaguePremier League · Round 26Cape Coast Sports Stadium

Match Prediction

Statistical Prediction

Based on goals from last 25+ matches

Ebusua Dwarfs50%
×Draw27%
Liberty Professionals23%
✓ Correct in 50 of 100 matches — 6 more than always backing the home side
Model
49.7%
Always home
44.3%

The model picks a winner (home or away) for each finished match using only pre-kickoff data, then checks it against the real result: 49.7% correct across 106,786 matches, vs 44.3% for always backing the home side.

Home picks 50.7% correct · Away picks 47.3% correct

Football matches only. Past performance is not indicative of future results.

Expected goals in this match

What is xG?

Every shot is scored 0–1 by how likely it is to be a goal from that spot — a chance in the middle of the box ≈ 0.4, a long shot from a tight angle ≈ 0.03, a penalty ≈ 0.76. Add them up over a match and that is the xG.

The scoreline can lie: you can win 1-0 on a fluke while creating half the chances. xG shows who was really closer to scoring — and over a season it predicts results better than goals alone.

Ebusua Dwarfs
1.42
Liberty Professionals
0.88

Ebusua Dwarfs creates 61% more chances

Season form · 25 home / 25 away

creates per match

Ebusua Dwarfs
1.32
Liberty Professionals
0.68

allows per match

Ebusua Dwarfs
1.08
Liberty Professionals
1.52

finishing

Ebusua Dwarfs+0.00on par
Liberty Professionals+0.00on par

Total goals

60%Under
  • Under60
  • Over40

Fewer than 3 goals likely

Both teams score

56%No
  • No56
  • Yes44

One side may not score

Score probability

Probability of each scoreline, %

Ebusua Dwarfs ↓

Liberty Professionals →
0
1
2
3
4
0
0–010%
0–19%
0–24%
0–31%
0–40%
1
1–014%
1–113%
1–26%
1–32%
1–40%
2
2–010%
2–19%
2–24%
2–31%
2–40%
3
3–05%
3–14%
3–22%
3–31%
3–40%
4
4–02%
4–11%
4–21%
4–30%
4–40%

Most likely 1–0 (14%) · grid covers 98% of scorelines

More markets

Total goals

OverUnder0.5
90%10%1.5
67%33%2.5
40%60%3.5
20%80%4.5
8%92%

Double chance

Ebusua Dwarfs or draw
77%
Ebusua Dwarfs or Liberty Professionals
73%
Draw or Liberty Professionals
50%

Winning margin

Ebusua Dwarfs wins by 2+
24%
Liberty Professionals wins by 2+
8%

Team goals

Ebusua Dwarfs 1+ goals
76%
Ebusua Dwarfs 2+ goals
41%
Ebusua Dwarfs 3+ goals
17%
Liberty Professionals 1+ goals
59%
Liberty Professionals 2+ goals
22%
Liberty Professionals 3+ goals
6%

Draw no bet

Ebusua Dwarfs (draw refunded)
68%
Liberty Professionals (draw refunded)
32%

Combos

Both score & 3+ goals
32%
Both score & under 3
13%

Model probabilities, not odds. For information only.

How is this calculated?

Every number below comes from this match — nothing is made up.

1

Recent form of each side

Ebusua Dwarfs at home — creates 1.32, concedes 1.08 · 25 matches

Liberty Professionals away — creates 0.68, concedes 1.52 · 25 matches

⚑ Home and away form are counted separately — the home-field edge is already baked into these numbers.

2

Expected goals for this match

Ebusua Dwarfs attack 1.32 + Liberty Professionals defence 1.52 → ÷2 → 1.42

Liberty Professionals attack 0.68 + Ebusua Dwarfs defence 1.08 → ÷2 → 0.88

Each side's attack is blended with the other's defence, then averaged.

3

Chance of every scoreline

From those two numbers a Poisson distribution gives the probability of each exact score — the grid shown above.

4

The answer to "why 50%?"

Ebusua Dwarfs scores more
50%
level
27%
Liberty Professionals scores more
23%

Ebusua Dwarfs at 50% is simply the biggest of the three — that is the pick.

What the model can't see

It reads only the stats of recent matches. It knows nothing about:

  • injuries & suspensions
  • the matchday lineup
  • motivation — cup, relegation, a title race
  • weather & pitch condition
  • in-game coaching decisions

So 50% does not mean "Ebusua Dwarfs will win" — it means "on the available stats, this is the most likely result."

Statistical model based on expected goals (xG). For informational purposes only.

Match Events

11'
M. Laryea
15'
21'
S. Abubakar
36'
70'
90+4'
90+6'
E. Afram
90+9'
90+16'

Probable lineups not yet announced

Starting lineups are usually confirmed ~1 hour before kickoff

Premier League: Ebusua Dwarfs 2–1 Liberty Professionals

Ebusua Dwarfs beat Liberty Professionals 2-1 in Premier League on May 23, 2021.

Goals: M. Laryea (11'), S. Abubakar (21'), E. Afram (90+6').

The match was played at Cape Coast Sports Stadium in Cape Coast.