Ebusua Dwarfs 0–3 Legon Cities: Result & Stats

Ebusua Dwarfs

FT

0 – 3

Legon Cities

R. K. Antwi 9'

5/9/2021

Premier League · Round 23Cape Coast Sports Stadium

Match Prediction

Statistical Prediction

Based on goals from last 32+ matches

Ebusua Dwarfs50%

×Draw27%

Legon Cities23%

✓ Correct in 50 of 100 matches — 6 more than always backing the home side

Model

49.7%

Always home

44.3%

The model picks a winner (home or away) for each finished match using only pre-kickoff data, then checks it against the real result: 49.7% correct across 106,786 matches, vs 44.3% for always backing the home side.

Home picks 50.7% correct · Away picks 47.3% correct

Football matches only. Past performance is not indicative of future results.

Ebusua DwarfsExpected goals in this matchLegon Cities

Expected goals in this match

What is xG?

Every shot is scored 0–1 by how likely it is to be a goal from that spot — a chance in the middle of the box ≈ 0.4, a long shot from a tight angle ≈ 0.03, a penalty ≈ 0.76. Add them up over a match and that is the xG.

The scoreline can lie: you can win 1-0 on a fluke while creating half the chances. xG shows who was really closer to scoring — and over a season it predicts results better than goals alone.

1.40

0.84

Ebusua Dwarfs

1.40

Legon Cities

0.84

Ebusua Dwarfs creates 67% more chances

Season form · 32 home / 93 away

1.41

creates per match

0.59

1.09

allows per match

1.38

creates per match

Ebusua Dwarfs

1.41

Legon Cities

0.59

allows per match

Ebusua Dwarfs

1.09

Legon Cities

1.38

+0.00on par

finishing

+0.00on par

finishing

Ebusua Dwarfs+0.00on par

Legon Cities+0.00on par

Total goals

Under61
Over39

Fewer than 3 goals likely

Both teams score

No57
Yes43

One side may not score

Score probability

Probability of each scoreline, %

Ebusua Dwarfs ↓

Legon Cities →

0

1

2

3

4

0

0–011%

0–19%

0–24%

0–31%

0–40%

1

1–015%

1–113%

1–25%

1–31%

1–40%

2

2–010%

2–19%

2–24%

2–31%

2–40%

3

3–05%

3–14%

3–22%

3–30%

3–40%

4

4–02%

4–11%

4–21%

4–30%

4–40%

Most likely 1–0 (15%) · grid covers 98% of scorelines

More markets

Total goals

OverUnder0.5

89%11%1.5

65%35%2.5

39%61%3.5

19%81%4.5

8%92%

Double chance

Ebusua Dwarfs or draw

77%

Ebusua Dwarfs or Legon Cities

73%

Draw or Legon Cities

50%

Winning margin

Ebusua Dwarfs wins by 2+

24%

Legon Cities wins by 2+

7%

Team goals

Ebusua Dwarfs 1+ goals

75%

Ebusua Dwarfs 2+ goals

41%

Ebusua Dwarfs 3+ goals

17%

Legon Cities 1+ goals

57%

Legon Cities 2+ goals

21%

Legon Cities 3+ goals

5%

Draw no bet

Ebusua Dwarfs (draw refunded)

69%

Legon Cities (draw refunded)

31%

Combos

Both score & 3+ goals

30%

Both score & under 3

13%

Model probabilities, not odds. For information only.

How is this calculated?

Every number below comes from this match — nothing is made up.

1

Recent form of each side

Ebusua Dwarfs at home — creates 1.41, concedes 1.09 · 32 matches

Legon Cities away — creates 0.59, concedes 1.38 · 93 matches

⚑ Home and away form are counted separately — the home-field edge is already baked into these numbers.

2

Expected goals for this match

Ebusua Dwarfs attack 1.41 + Legon Cities defence 1.38 → ÷2 → 1.40

Legon Cities attack 0.59 + Ebusua Dwarfs defence 1.09 → ÷2 → 0.84

Each side's attack is blended with the other's defence, then averaged.

3

Chance of every scoreline

From those two numbers a Poisson distribution gives the probability of each exact score — the grid shown above.

4

The answer to "why 50%?"

Ebusua Dwarfs scores more

50%

level

27%

Legon Cities scores more

23%

Ebusua Dwarfs at 50% is simply the biggest of the three — that is the pick.

What the model can't see

It reads only the stats of recent matches. It knows nothing about:

injuries & suspensions
the matchday lineup
motivation — cup, relegation, a title race
weather & pitch condition
in-game coaching decisions

So 50% does not mean "Ebusua Dwarfs will win" — it means "on the available stats, this is the most likely result."

Statistical model based on expected goals (xG). For informational purposes only.

Match Events

9'

R. K. Antwi

42'

Probable lineups not yet announced

Starting lineups are usually confirmed ~1 hour before kickoff