Scoreo
FootballHockeyTennisBasketballVolleyballHandballBaseballRugbyMMAFormula 1

Ebusua Dwarfs vs Hearts of Oak — Premier League 2019

Ebusua Dwarfs
Ebusua Dwarfs
FT
1 – 1
Hearts of Oak
Hearts of Oak
D. Korsah-Akoumah 85'
K. Obeng Junior 90+5'
7/4/2021Premier LeaguePremier League · Round 32Cape Coast Sports Stadium

Match Prediction

Statistical Prediction

Based on goals from last 27+ matches

Ebusua Dwarfs40%
×Draw31%
Hearts of Oak30%
✓ Correct in 50 of 100 matches — 6 more than always backing the home side
Model
49.7%
Always home
44.3%

The model picks a winner (home or away) for each finished match using only pre-kickoff data, then checks it against the real result: 49.7% correct across 106,786 matches, vs 44.3% for always backing the home side.

Home picks 50.7% correct · Away picks 47.3% correct

Football matches only. Past performance is not indicative of future results.

Expected goals in this match

What is xG?

Every shot is scored 0–1 by how likely it is to be a goal from that spot — a chance in the middle of the box ≈ 0.4, a long shot from a tight angle ≈ 0.03, a penalty ≈ 0.76. Add them up over a match and that is the xG.

The scoreline can lie: you can win 1-0 on a fluke while creating half the chances. xG shows who was really closer to scoring — and over a season it predicts results better than goals alone.

Ebusua Dwarfs
1.09
Hearts of Oak
0.90

Ebusua Dwarfs creates 21% more chances

Season form · 27 home / 108 away

creates per match

Ebusua Dwarfs
1.33
Hearts of Oak
0.72

allows per match

Ebusua Dwarfs
1.07
Hearts of Oak
0.86

finishing

Ebusua Dwarfs+0.00on par
Hearts of Oak+0.00on par

Total goals

68%Under
  • Under68
  • Over32

Fewer than 3 goals likely

Both teams score

61%No
  • No61
  • Yes39

One side may not score

Score probability

Probability of each scoreline, %

Ebusua Dwarfs ↓

Hearts of Oak →
0
1
2
3
4
0
0–014%
0–112%
0–26%
0–32%
0–40%
1
1–015%
1–113%
1–26%
1–32%
1–40%
2
2–08%
2–17%
2–23%
2–31%
2–40%
3
3–03%
3–13%
3–21%
3–30%
3–40%
4
4–01%
4–11%
4–20%
4–30%
4–40%

Most likely 1–0 (15%) · grid covers 99% of scorelines

More markets

Total goals

OverUnder0.5
86%14%1.5
59%41%2.5
32%68%3.5
14%86%4.5
5%95%

Double chance

Ebusua Dwarfs or draw
70%
Ebusua Dwarfs or Hearts of Oak
69%
Draw or Hearts of Oak
60%

Winning margin

Ebusua Dwarfs wins by 2+
16%
Hearts of Oak wins by 2+
10%

Team goals

Ebusua Dwarfs 1+ goals
66%
Ebusua Dwarfs 2+ goals
30%
Ebusua Dwarfs 3+ goals
10%
Hearts of Oak 1+ goals
59%
Hearts of Oak 2+ goals
23%
Hearts of Oak 3+ goals
6%

Draw no bet

Ebusua Dwarfs (draw refunded)
57%
Hearts of Oak (draw refunded)
43%

Combos

Both score & 3+ goals
26%
Both score & under 3
13%

Model probabilities, not odds. For information only.

How is this calculated?

Every number below comes from this match — nothing is made up.

1

Recent form of each side

Ebusua Dwarfs at home — creates 1.33, concedes 1.07 · 27 matches

Hearts of Oak away — creates 0.72, concedes 0.86 · 108 matches

⚑ Home and away form are counted separately — the home-field edge is already baked into these numbers.

2

Expected goals for this match

Ebusua Dwarfs attack 1.33 + Hearts of Oak defence 0.86 → ÷2 → 1.09

Hearts of Oak attack 0.72 + Ebusua Dwarfs defence 1.07 → ÷2 → 0.90

Each side's attack is blended with the other's defence, then averaged.

3

Chance of every scoreline

From those two numbers a Poisson distribution gives the probability of each exact score — the grid shown above.

4

The answer to "why 40%?"

Ebusua Dwarfs scores more
40%
level
31%
Hearts of Oak scores more
30%

Ebusua Dwarfs at 40% is simply the biggest of the three — that is the pick.

What the model can't see

It reads only the stats of recent matches. It knows nothing about:

  • injuries & suspensions
  • the matchday lineup
  • motivation — cup, relegation, a title race
  • weather & pitch condition
  • in-game coaching decisions

So 40% does not mean "Ebusua Dwarfs will win" — it means "on the available stats, this is the most likely result."

Statistical model based on expected goals (xG). For informational purposes only.

Match Events

54'
F. Ansah← M. Umar
71'
I. Mensah← I. Mensah
72'
A. Hammond← A. Hammond
78'
W. Dankyi← W. Dankyi
85'
D. Korsah-Akoumah
90+5'
K. Obeng Junior

Probable lineups not yet announced

Starting lineups are usually confirmed ~1 hour before kickoff

Premier League: Ebusua Dwarfs 1–1 Hearts of Oak

Ebusua Dwarfs and Hearts of Oak drew 1-1 in Premier League on July 4, 2021.

Goals: D. Korsah-Akoumah (85'), K. Obeng Junior (90+5').

The match was played at Cape Coast Sports Stadium in Cape Coast.