Ebusua Dwarfs 0–0 Great Olympics: Result & Stats

Ebusua Dwarfs

FT

0 – 0

Great Olympics

7/12/2017

Premier League · Round 22Cape Coast Sports Stadium

Match Prediction

Statistical Prediction

Based on goals from last 30+ matches

Ebusua Dwarfs47%

×Draw29%

Great Olympics24%

✓ Correct in 50 of 100 matches — 6 more than always backing the home side

Model

49.7%

Always home

44.3%

The model picks a winner (home or away) for each finished match using only pre-kickoff data, then checks it against the real result: 49.7% correct across 106,786 matches, vs 44.3% for always backing the home side.

Home picks 50.7% correct · Away picks 47.3% correct

Football matches only. Past performance is not indicative of future results.

Ebusua DwarfsExpected goals in this matchGreat Olympics

Expected goals in this match

What is xG?

Every shot is scored 0–1 by how likely it is to be a goal from that spot — a chance in the middle of the box ≈ 0.4, a long shot from a tight angle ≈ 0.03, a penalty ≈ 0.76. Add them up over a match and that is the xG.

The scoreline can lie: you can win 1-0 on a fluke while creating half the chances. xG shows who was really closer to scoring — and over a season it predicts results better than goals alone.

1.29

0.84

Ebusua Dwarfs

1.29

Great Olympics

0.84

Ebusua Dwarfs creates 54% more chances

Season form · 30 home / 76 away

1.30

creates per match

0.61

1.07

allows per match

1.28

creates per match

Ebusua Dwarfs

1.30

Great Olympics

0.61

allows per match

Ebusua Dwarfs

1.07

Great Olympics

1.28

+0.00on par

finishing

+0.00on par

finishing

Ebusua Dwarfs+0.00on par

Great Olympics+0.00on par

Total goals

Under64
Over36

Fewer than 3 goals likely

Both teams score

No59
Yes41

One side may not score

Score probability

Probability of each scoreline, %

Ebusua Dwarfs ↓

Great Olympics →

0

1

2

3

4

0

0–012%

0–110%

0–24%

0–31%

0–40%

1

1–015%

1–113%

1–25%

1–32%

1–40%

2

2–010%

2–18%

2–23%

2–31%

2–40%

3

3–04%

3–14%

3–22%

3–30%

3–40%

4

4–01%

4–11%

4–20%

4–30%

4–40%

Most likely 1–0 (15%) · grid covers 99% of scorelines

More markets

Total goals

OverUnder0.5

88%12%1.5

63%37%2.5

36%64%3.5

17%83%4.5

6%94%

Double chance

Ebusua Dwarfs or draw

76%

Ebusua Dwarfs or Great Olympics

71%

Draw or Great Olympics

53%

Winning margin

Ebusua Dwarfs wins by 2+

22%

Great Olympics wins by 2+

8%

Team goals

Ebusua Dwarfs 1+ goals

72%

Ebusua Dwarfs 2+ goals

37%

Ebusua Dwarfs 3+ goals

14%

Great Olympics 1+ goals

57%

Great Olympics 2+ goals

21%

Great Olympics 3+ goals

5%

Draw no bet

Ebusua Dwarfs (draw refunded)

66%

Great Olympics (draw refunded)

34%

Combos

Both score & 3+ goals

28%

Both score & under 3

13%

Model probabilities, not odds. For information only.

How is this calculated?

Every number below comes from this match — nothing is made up.

1

Recent form of each side

Ebusua Dwarfs at home — creates 1.30, concedes 1.07 · 30 matches

Great Olympics away — creates 0.61, concedes 1.28 · 76 matches

⚑ Home and away form are counted separately — the home-field edge is already baked into these numbers.

2

Expected goals for this match

Ebusua Dwarfs attack 1.30 + Great Olympics defence 1.28 → ÷2 → 1.29

Great Olympics attack 0.61 + Ebusua Dwarfs defence 1.07 → ÷2 → 0.84

Each side's attack is blended with the other's defence, then averaged.

3

Chance of every scoreline

From those two numbers a Poisson distribution gives the probability of each exact score — the grid shown above.

4

The answer to "why 47%?"

Ebusua Dwarfs scores more

47%

level

29%

Great Olympics scores more

24%

Ebusua Dwarfs at 47% is simply the biggest of the three — that is the pick.

What the model can't see

It reads only the stats of recent matches. It knows nothing about:

injuries & suspensions
the matchday lineup
motivation — cup, relegation, a title race
weather & pitch condition
in-game coaching decisions

So 47% does not mean "Ebusua Dwarfs will win" — it means "on the available stats, this is the most likely result."

Statistical model based on expected goals (xG). For informational purposes only.

Probable lineups not yet announced

Starting lineups are usually confirmed ~1 hour before kickoff