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Ebusua Dwarfs vs Eleven Wise — Division One League 2025

Ebusua Dwarfs
Ebusua Dwarfs
FT
4 – 0
HT: 3 – 0
Eleven Wise
Eleven Wise
12/7/2025Division One LeagueDivision One League · Round 10

Match Prediction

Statistical Prediction

Based on goals from last 15+ matches

Ebusua Dwarfs75%
×Draw18%
Eleven Wise7%
✓ Correct in 50 of 100 matches — 6 more than always backing the home side
Model
49.7%
Always home
44.3%

The model picks a winner (home or away) for each finished match using only pre-kickoff data, then checks it against the real result: 49.7% correct across 106,786 matches, vs 44.3% for always backing the home side.

Home picks 50.7% correct · Away picks 47.3% correct

Football matches only. Past performance is not indicative of future results.

Expected goals in this match

What is xG?

Every shot is scored 0–1 by how likely it is to be a goal from that spot — a chance in the middle of the box ≈ 0.4, a long shot from a tight angle ≈ 0.03, a penalty ≈ 0.76. Add them up over a match and that is the xG.

The scoreline can lie: you can win 1-0 on a fluke while creating half the chances. xG shows who was really closer to scoring — and over a season it predicts results better than goals alone.

Ebusua Dwarfs
1.97
Eleven Wise
0.40

Ebusua Dwarfs creates 393% more chances

Season form · 15 home / 15 away

creates per match

Ebusua Dwarfs
1.67
Eleven Wise
0.13

allows per match

Ebusua Dwarfs
0.67
Eleven Wise
2.27

finishing

Ebusua Dwarfs+0.00on par
Eleven Wise+0.00on par

Total goals

58%Under
  • Under58
  • Over42

Fewer than 3 goals likely

Both teams score

72%No
  • No72
  • Yes28

One side may not score

Score probability

Probability of each scoreline, %

Ebusua Dwarfs ↓

Eleven Wise →
0
1
2
3
4
0
0–09%
0–14%
0–21%
0–30%
0–40%
1
1–018%
1–17%
1–21%
1–30%
1–40%
2
2–018%
2–17%
2–21%
2–30%
2–40%
3
3–012%
3–15%
3–21%
3–30%
3–40%
4
4–06%
4–12%
4–20%
4–30%
4–40%

Most likely 1–0 (18%) · grid covers 95% of scorelines

More markets

Total goals

OverUnder0.5
91%9%1.5
68%32%2.5
42%58%3.5
21%79%4.5
9%91%

Double chance

Ebusua Dwarfs or draw
93%
Ebusua Dwarfs or Eleven Wise
82%
Draw or Eleven Wise
25%

Winning margin

Ebusua Dwarfs wins by 2+
48%
Eleven Wise wins by 2+
1%

Team goals

Ebusua Dwarfs 1+ goals
86%
Ebusua Dwarfs 2+ goals
58%
Ebusua Dwarfs 3+ goals
31%
Eleven Wise 1+ goals
33%
Eleven Wise 2+ goals
6%
Eleven Wise 3+ goals
1%

Draw no bet

Ebusua Dwarfs (draw refunded)
92%
Eleven Wise (draw refunded)
8%

Combos

Both score & 3+ goals
21%
Both score & under 3
7%

Model probabilities, not odds. For information only.

How is this calculated?

Every number below comes from this match — nothing is made up.

1

Recent form of each side

Ebusua Dwarfs at home — creates 1.67, concedes 0.67 · 15 matches

Eleven Wise away — creates 0.13, concedes 2.27 · 15 matches

⚑ Home and away form are counted separately — the home-field edge is already baked into these numbers.

2

Expected goals for this match

Ebusua Dwarfs attack 1.67 + Eleven Wise defence 2.27 → ÷2 → 1.97

Eleven Wise attack 0.13 + Ebusua Dwarfs defence 0.67 → ÷2 → 0.40

Each side's attack is blended with the other's defence, then averaged.

3

Chance of every scoreline

From those two numbers a Poisson distribution gives the probability of each exact score — the grid shown above.

4

The answer to "why 75%?"

Ebusua Dwarfs scores more
75%
level
18%
Eleven Wise scores more
7%

Ebusua Dwarfs at 75% is simply the biggest of the three — that is the pick.

What the model can't see

It reads only the stats of recent matches. It knows nothing about:

  • injuries & suspensions
  • the matchday lineup
  • motivation — cup, relegation, a title race
  • weather & pitch condition
  • in-game coaching decisions

So 75% does not mean "Ebusua Dwarfs will win" — it means "on the available stats, this is the most likely result."

Statistical model based on expected goals (xG). For informational purposes only.

Probable lineups not yet announced

Starting lineups are usually confirmed ~1 hour before kickoff

Division One League: Ebusua Dwarfs 4–0 Eleven Wise

Ebusua Dwarfs beat Eleven Wise 4-0 in Division One League on December 7, 2025.