Ebusua Dwarfs 1–1 Dreams: Result & Stats

Ebusua Dwarfs

FT

1 – 1

Dreams

M. Sumaila 65'

A. Boateng Mensah 5'

5/17/2021

Premier League · Round 25Cape Coast Sports Stadium

Match Prediction

Statistical Prediction

Based on goals from last 25+ matches

Ebusua Dwarfs45%

×Draw28%

Dreams27%

✓ Correct in 50 of 100 matches — 6 more than always backing the home side

Model

49.7%

Always home

44.3%

The model picks a winner (home or away) for each finished match using only pre-kickoff data, then checks it against the real result: 49.7% correct across 106,786 matches, vs 44.3% for always backing the home side.

Home picks 50.7% correct · Away picks 47.3% correct

Football matches only. Past performance is not indicative of future results.

Ebusua DwarfsExpected goals in this matchDreams

Expected goals in this match

What is xG?

Every shot is scored 0–1 by how likely it is to be a goal from that spot — a chance in the middle of the box ≈ 0.4, a long shot from a tight angle ≈ 0.03, a penalty ≈ 0.76. Add them up over a match and that is the xG.

The scoreline can lie: you can win 1-0 on a fluke while creating half the chances. xG shows who was really closer to scoring — and over a season it predicts results better than goals alone.

1.29

0.93

Ebusua Dwarfs

1.29

Dreams

0.93

Ebusua Dwarfs creates 39% more chances

Season form · 25 home / 110 away

1.32

creates per match

0.77

1.08

allows per match

1.27

creates per match

Ebusua Dwarfs

1.32

Dreams

0.77

allows per match

Ebusua Dwarfs

1.08

Dreams

1.27

+0.00on par

finishing

+0.00on par

finishing

Ebusua Dwarfs+0.00on par

Dreams+0.00on par

Total goals

Under62
Over38

Fewer than 3 goals likely

Both teams score

No56
Yes44

One side may not score

Score probability

Probability of each scoreline, %

Ebusua Dwarfs ↓

Dreams →

0

1

2

3

4

0

0–011%

0–110%

0–25%

0–31%

0–40%

1

1–014%

1–113%

1–26%

1–32%

1–40%

2

2–09%

2–18%

2–24%

2–31%

2–40%

3

3–04%

3–14%

3–22%

3–31%

3–40%

4

4–01%

4–11%

4–21%

4–30%

4–40%

Most likely 1–0 (14%) · grid covers 99% of scorelines

More markets

Total goals

OverUnder0.5

89%11%1.5

65%35%2.5

38%62%3.5

18%82%4.5

7%93%

Double chance

Ebusua Dwarfs or draw

73%

Ebusua Dwarfs or Dreams

72%

Draw or Dreams

55%

Winning margin

Ebusua Dwarfs wins by 2+

20%

Dreams wins by 2+

9%

Team goals

Ebusua Dwarfs 1+ goals

72%

Ebusua Dwarfs 2+ goals

37%

Ebusua Dwarfs 3+ goals

14%

Dreams 1+ goals

61%

Dreams 2+ goals

24%

Dreams 3+ goals

7%

Draw no bet

Ebusua Dwarfs (draw refunded)

63%

Dreams (draw refunded)

37%

Combos

Both score & 3+ goals

31%

Both score & under 3

13%

Model probabilities, not odds. For information only.

How is this calculated?

Every number below comes from this match — nothing is made up.

1

Recent form of each side

Ebusua Dwarfs at home — creates 1.32, concedes 1.08 · 25 matches

Dreams away — creates 0.77, concedes 1.27 · 110 matches

⚑ Home and away form are counted separately — the home-field edge is already baked into these numbers.

2

Expected goals for this match

Ebusua Dwarfs attack 1.32 + Dreams defence 1.27 → ÷2 → 1.29

Dreams attack 0.77 + Ebusua Dwarfs defence 1.08 → ÷2 → 0.93

Each side's attack is blended with the other's defence, then averaged.

3

Chance of every scoreline

From those two numbers a Poisson distribution gives the probability of each exact score — the grid shown above.

4

The answer to "why 45%?"

Ebusua Dwarfs scores more

45%

level

28%

Dreams scores more

27%

Ebusua Dwarfs at 45% is simply the biggest of the three — that is the pick.

What the model can't see

It reads only the stats of recent matches. It knows nothing about:

injuries & suspensions
the matchday lineup
motivation — cup, relegation, a title race
weather & pitch condition
in-game coaching decisions

So 45% does not mean "Ebusua Dwarfs will win" — it means "on the available stats, this is the most likely result."

Statistical model based on expected goals (xG). For informational purposes only.

Match Events

5'

A. Boateng Mensah

19'

E. Ocran

41'

S. Mohammed← S. Mohammed

44'

S. Mohammed

50'

E. J. Kofi← E. J. Kofi

57'

E. Anaful← E. Anaful

59'

S. Simba← S. Simba

65'

M. Sumaila

70'

A. Hammond← A. Hammond

74'

D. Amadu← D. Amadu

85'

M. Sumaila

Probable lineups not yet announced

Starting lineups are usually confirmed ~1 hour before kickoff