Scoreo
FootballHockeyTennisBasketballVolleyballHandballBaseballRugbyMMAFormula 1

Ebro vs Épila — Tercera División RFEF - Group 17 2019

Ebro
Ebro
FT
4 – 1
HT: 2 – 0
Épila
Épila
2/15/2025Tercera División RFEF - Group 17Tercera División RFEF - Group 17 · Group 17 - 22Estadio Almozara

Match Prediction

Statistical Prediction

Based on goals from last 34+ matches

Ebro46%
×Draw28%
Épila26%
✓ Correct in 50 of 100 matches — 5 more than always backing the home side
Model
50.3%
Always home
44.5%

The model picks a winner (home or away) for each finished match using only pre-kickoff data, then checks it against the real result: 50.3% correct across 582,450 matches, vs 44.5% for always backing the home side.

Home picks 50.5% correct · Away picks 49.5% correct

Football matches only. Past performance is not indicative of future results.

Expected goals in this match

What is xG?

Every shot is scored 0–1 by how likely it is to be a goal from that spot — a chance in the middle of the box ≈ 0.4, a long shot from a tight angle ≈ 0.03, a penalty ≈ 0.76. Add them up over a match and that is the xG.

The scoreline can lie: you can win 1-0 on a fluke while creating half the chances. xG shows who was really closer to scoring — and over a season it predicts results better than goals alone.

Ebro
1.31
Épila
0.91

Ebro creates 44% more chances

Season form · 34 home / 99 away

creates per match

Ebro
1.56
Épila
1.16

allows per match

Ebro
0.65
Épila
1.05

finishing

Ebro+0.00on par
Épila+0.00on par

Total goals

62%Under
  • Under62
  • Over38

Fewer than 3 goals likely

Both teams score

56%No
  • No56
  • Yes44

One side may not score

Score probability

Probability of each scoreline, %

Ebro ↓

Épila →
0
1
2
3
4
0
0–011%
0–110%
0–24%
0–31%
0–40%
1
1–014%
1–113%
1–26%
1–32%
1–40%
2
2–09%
2–18%
2–24%
2–31%
2–40%
3
3–04%
3–14%
3–22%
3–31%
3–40%
4
4–01%
4–11%
4–21%
4–30%
4–40%

Most likely 1–0 (14%) · grid covers 99% of scorelines

More markets

Total goals

OverUnder0.5
89%11%1.5
65%35%2.5
38%62%3.5
18%82%4.5
7%93%

Double chance

Ebro or draw
74%
Ebro or Épila
72%
Draw or Épila
54%

Winning margin

Ebro wins by 2+
21%
Épila wins by 2+
9%

Team goals

Ebro 1+ goals
73%
Ebro 2+ goals
38%
Ebro 3+ goals
14%
Épila 1+ goals
60%
Épila 2+ goals
23%
Épila 3+ goals
6%

Draw no bet

Ebro (draw refunded)
64%
Épila (draw refunded)
36%

Combos

Both score & 3+ goals
31%
Both score & under 3
13%

Model probabilities, not odds. For information only.

How is this calculated?

Every number below comes from this match — nothing is made up.

1

Recent form of each side

Ebro at home — creates 1.56, concedes 0.65 · 34 matches

Épila away — creates 1.16, concedes 1.05 · 99 matches

⚑ Home and away form are counted separately — the home-field edge is already baked into these numbers.

2

Expected goals for this match

Ebro attack 1.56 + Épila defence 1.05 → ÷2 → 1.31

Épila attack 1.16 + Ebro defence 0.65 → ÷2 → 0.91

Each side's attack is blended with the other's defence, then averaged.

3

Chance of every scoreline

From those two numbers a Poisson distribution gives the probability of each exact score — the grid shown above.

4

The answer to "why 46%?"

Ebro scores more
46%
level
28%
Épila scores more
26%

Ebro at 46% is simply the biggest of the three — that is the pick.

What the model can't see

It reads only the stats of recent matches. It knows nothing about:

  • injuries & suspensions
  • the matchday lineup
  • motivation — cup, relegation, a title race
  • weather & pitch condition
  • in-game coaching decisions

So 46% does not mean "Ebro will win" — it means "on the available stats, this is the most likely result."

Statistical model based on expected goals (xG). For informational purposes only.

Probable lineups not yet announced

Starting lineups are usually confirmed ~1 hour before kickoff

Tercera División RFEF - Group 17: Ebro 4–1 Épila

Ebro beat Épila 4-1 in Tercera División RFEF - Group 17 on February 15, 2025.

The match was played at Estadio Almozara in Zaragoza.