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Ebro vs Cuarte — Tercera División RFEF - Group 17 2019

Ebro
Ebro
FT
2 – 0
HT: 1 – 0
Cuarte
Cuarte
2/17/2024Tercera División RFEF - Group 17Tercera División RFEF - Group 17 · Group 17 - 21Estadio Almozara

Match Prediction

Statistical Prediction

Based on goals from last 34+ matches

Ebro46%
×Draw29%
Cuarte25%
✓ Correct in 50 of 100 matches — 6 more than always backing the home side
Model
49.7%
Always home
44.3%

The model picks a winner (home or away) for each finished match using only pre-kickoff data, then checks it against the real result: 49.7% correct across 106,786 matches, vs 44.3% for always backing the home side.

Home picks 50.7% correct · Away picks 47.3% correct

Football matches only. Past performance is not indicative of future results.

Expected goals in this match

What is xG?

Every shot is scored 0–1 by how likely it is to be a goal from that spot — a chance in the middle of the box ≈ 0.4, a long shot from a tight angle ≈ 0.03, a penalty ≈ 0.76. Add them up over a match and that is the xG.

The scoreline can lie: you can win 1-0 on a fluke while creating half the chances. xG shows who was really closer to scoring — and over a season it predicts results better than goals alone.

Ebro
1.26
Cuarte
0.86

Ebro creates 47% more chances

Season form · 34 home / 112 away

creates per match

Ebro
1.56
Cuarte
1.08

allows per match

Ebro
0.65
Cuarte
0.96

finishing

Ebro+0.00on par
Cuarte+0.00on par

Total goals

64%Under
  • Under64
  • Over36

Fewer than 3 goals likely

Both teams score

59%No
  • No59
  • Yes41

One side may not score

Score probability

Probability of each scoreline, %

Ebro ↓

Cuarte →
0
1
2
3
4
0
0–012%
0–110%
0–24%
0–31%
0–40%
1
1–015%
1–113%
1–26%
1–32%
1–40%
2
2–010%
2–18%
2–24%
2–31%
2–40%
3
3–04%
3–13%
3–21%
3–30%
3–40%
4
4–01%
4–11%
4–20%
4–30%
4–40%

Most likely 1–0 (15%) · grid covers 99% of scorelines

More markets

Total goals

OverUnder0.5
88%12%1.5
63%37%2.5
36%64%3.5
16%84%4.5
6%94%

Double chance

Ebro or draw
75%
Ebro or Cuarte
71%
Draw or Cuarte
54%

Winning margin

Ebro wins by 2+
21%
Cuarte wins by 2+
8%

Team goals

Ebro 1+ goals
72%
Ebro 2+ goals
36%
Ebro 3+ goals
13%
Cuarte 1+ goals
58%
Cuarte 2+ goals
21%
Cuarte 3+ goals
6%

Draw no bet

Ebro (draw refunded)
64%
Cuarte (draw refunded)
36%

Combos

Both score & 3+ goals
28%
Both score & under 3
13%

Model probabilities, not odds. For information only.

How is this calculated?

Every number below comes from this match — nothing is made up.

1

Recent form of each side

Ebro at home — creates 1.56, concedes 0.65 · 34 matches

Cuarte away — creates 1.08, concedes 0.96 · 112 matches

⚑ Home and away form are counted separately — the home-field edge is already baked into these numbers.

2

Expected goals for this match

Ebro attack 1.56 + Cuarte defence 0.96 → ÷2 → 1.26

Cuarte attack 1.08 + Ebro defence 0.65 → ÷2 → 0.86

Each side's attack is blended with the other's defence, then averaged.

3

Chance of every scoreline

From those two numbers a Poisson distribution gives the probability of each exact score — the grid shown above.

4

The answer to "why 46%?"

Ebro scores more
46%
level
29%
Cuarte scores more
25%

Ebro at 46% is simply the biggest of the three — that is the pick.

What the model can't see

It reads only the stats of recent matches. It knows nothing about:

  • injuries & suspensions
  • the matchday lineup
  • motivation — cup, relegation, a title race
  • weather & pitch condition
  • in-game coaching decisions

So 46% does not mean "Ebro will win" — it means "on the available stats, this is the most likely result."

Statistical model based on expected goals (xG). For informational purposes only.

Probable lineups not yet announced

Starting lineups are usually confirmed ~1 hour before kickoff

Ebro 2 – 0 Cuarte

Ebro beat Cuarte 2-0 in Tercera División RFEF - Group 17 on February 17, 2024.

The match was played at Estadio Almozara in Zaragoza.