Ebro 1–0 CDJ Tamarite: Result & Stats

Ebro

FT

1 – 0

HT: 0 – 0

CDJ Tamarite

9/28/2024

Tercera División RFEF - Group 17 · Group 17 - 4Estadio Almozara

Match Prediction

Statistical Prediction

Based on goals from last 34+ matches

Ebro57%

×Draw24%

CDJ Tamarite19%

✓ Correct in 50 of 100 matches — 5 more than always backing the home side

Model

50.3%

Always home

44.5%

The model picks a winner (home or away) for each finished match using only pre-kickoff data, then checks it against the real result: 50.3% correct across 582,450 matches, vs 44.5% for always backing the home side.

Home picks 50.5% correct · Away picks 49.5% correct

Football matches only. Past performance is not indicative of future results.

EbroExpected goals in this matchCDJ Tamarite

Expected goals in this match

What is xG?

Every shot is scored 0–1 by how likely it is to be a goal from that spot — a chance in the middle of the box ≈ 0.4, a long shot from a tight angle ≈ 0.03, a penalty ≈ 0.76. Add them up over a match and that is the xG.

The scoreline can lie: you can win 1-0 on a fluke while creating half the chances. xG shows who was really closer to scoring — and over a season it predicts results better than goals alone.

1.69

0.85

Ebro

1.69

CDJ Tamarite

0.85

Ebro creates 99% more chances

Season form · 34 home / 98 away

1.56

creates per match

1.05

0.65

allows per match

1.81

creates per match

Ebro

1.56

CDJ Tamarite

1.05

allows per match

Ebro

0.65

CDJ Tamarite

1.81

+0.00on par

finishing

+0.00on par

finishing

Ebro+0.00on par

CDJ Tamarite+0.00on par

Total goals

Under53
Over47

Fewer than 3 goals likely

Both teams score

No53
Yes47

One side may not score

Score probability

Probability of each scoreline, %

Ebro ↓

CDJ Tamarite →

0

1

2

3

4

0

0–08%

0–17%

0–23%

0–31%

0–40%

1

1–013%

1–111%

1–25%

1–31%

1–40%

2

2–011%

2–110%

2–24%

2–31%

2–40%

3

3–06%

3–15%

3–22%

3–31%

3–40%

4

4–03%

4–12%

4–21%

4–30%

4–40%

Most likely 1–0 (13%) · grid covers 97% of scorelines

More markets

Total goals

OverUnder0.5

92%8%1.5

72%28%2.5

47%53%3.5

25%75%4.5

11%89%

Double chance

Ebro or draw

81%

Ebro or CDJ Tamarite

76%

Draw or CDJ Tamarite

43%

Winning margin

Ebro wins by 2+

32%

CDJ Tamarite wins by 2+

6%

Team goals

Ebro 1+ goals

82%

Ebro 2+ goals

50%

Ebro 3+ goals

24%

CDJ Tamarite 1+ goals

57%

CDJ Tamarite 2+ goals

21%

CDJ Tamarite 3+ goals

5%

Draw no bet

Ebro (draw refunded)

75%

CDJ Tamarite (draw refunded)

25%

Combos

Both score & 3+ goals

35%

Both score & under 3

11%

Model probabilities, not odds. For information only.

How is this calculated?

Every number below comes from this match — nothing is made up.

1

Recent form of each side

Ebro at home — creates 1.56, concedes 0.65 · 34 matches

CDJ Tamarite away — creates 1.05, concedes 1.81 · 98 matches

⚑ Home and away form are counted separately — the home-field edge is already baked into these numbers.

2

Expected goals for this match

Ebro attack 1.56 + CDJ Tamarite defence 1.81 → ÷2 → 1.69

CDJ Tamarite attack 1.05 + Ebro defence 0.65 → ÷2 → 0.85

Each side's attack is blended with the other's defence, then averaged.

3

Chance of every scoreline

From those two numbers a Poisson distribution gives the probability of each exact score — the grid shown above.

4

The answer to "why 57%?"

Ebro scores more

57%

level

24%

CDJ Tamarite scores more

19%

Ebro at 57% is simply the biggest of the three — that is the pick.

What the model can't see

It reads only the stats of recent matches. It knows nothing about:

injuries & suspensions
the matchday lineup
motivation — cup, relegation, a title race
weather & pitch condition
in-game coaching decisions

So 57% does not mean "Ebro will win" — it means "on the available stats, this is the most likely result."

Statistical model based on expected goals (xG). For informational purposes only.

Probable lineups not yet announced

Starting lineups are usually confirmed ~1 hour before kickoff