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Ebro vs Caspe — Tercera División RFEF - Group 17 2019

Ebro
Ebro
FT
1 – 0
HT: 0 – 0
Caspe
Caspe
11/10/2024Tercera División RFEF - Group 17Tercera División RFEF - Group 17 · Group 17 - 9Estadio Almozara

Match Prediction

Statistical Prediction

Based on goals from last 34+ matches

Ebro50%
×Draw28%
Caspe22%
✓ Correct in 50 of 100 matches — 6 more than always backing the home side
Model
49.7%
Always home
44.3%

The model picks a winner (home or away) for each finished match using only pre-kickoff data, then checks it against the real result: 49.7% correct across 106,786 matches, vs 44.3% for always backing the home side.

Home picks 50.7% correct · Away picks 47.3% correct

Football matches only. Past performance is not indicative of future results.

Expected goals in this match

What is xG?

Every shot is scored 0–1 by how likely it is to be a goal from that spot — a chance in the middle of the box ≈ 0.4, a long shot from a tight angle ≈ 0.03, a penalty ≈ 0.76. Add them up over a match and that is the xG.

The scoreline can lie: you can win 1-0 on a fluke while creating half the chances. xG shows who was really closer to scoring — and over a season it predicts results better than goals alone.

Ebro
1.33
Caspe
0.77

Ebro creates 73% more chances

Season form · 34 home / 83 away

creates per match

Ebro
1.56
Caspe
0.89

allows per match

Ebro
0.65
Caspe
1.10

finishing

Ebro+0.00on par
Caspe+0.00on par

Total goals

65%Under
  • Under65
  • Over35

Fewer than 3 goals likely

Both teams score

61%No
  • No61
  • Yes39

One side may not score

Score probability

Probability of each scoreline, %

Ebro ↓

Caspe →
0
1
2
3
4
0
0–012%
0–19%
0–24%
0–31%
0–40%
1
1–016%
1–113%
1–25%
1–31%
1–40%
2
2–011%
2–18%
2–23%
2–31%
2–40%
3
3–05%
3–14%
3–21%
3–30%
3–40%
4
4–02%
4–11%
4–20%
4–30%
4–40%

Most likely 1–0 (16%) · grid covers 99% of scorelines

More markets

Total goals

OverUnder0.5
88%12%1.5
62%38%2.5
35%65%3.5
16%84%4.5
6%94%

Double chance

Ebro or draw
78%
Ebro or Caspe
72%
Draw or Caspe
50%

Winning margin

Ebro wins by 2+
24%
Caspe wins by 2+
6%

Team goals

Ebro 1+ goals
74%
Ebro 2+ goals
38%
Ebro 3+ goals
15%
Caspe 1+ goals
54%
Caspe 2+ goals
18%
Caspe 3+ goals
4%

Draw no bet

Ebro (draw refunded)
70%
Caspe (draw refunded)
30%

Combos

Both score & 3+ goals
27%
Both score & under 3
13%

Model probabilities, not odds. For information only.

How is this calculated?

Every number below comes from this match — nothing is made up.

1

Recent form of each side

Ebro at home — creates 1.56, concedes 0.65 · 34 matches

Caspe away — creates 0.89, concedes 1.10 · 83 matches

⚑ Home and away form are counted separately — the home-field edge is already baked into these numbers.

2

Expected goals for this match

Ebro attack 1.56 + Caspe defence 1.10 → ÷2 → 1.33

Caspe attack 0.89 + Ebro defence 0.65 → ÷2 → 0.77

Each side's attack is blended with the other's defence, then averaged.

3

Chance of every scoreline

From those two numbers a Poisson distribution gives the probability of each exact score — the grid shown above.

4

The answer to "why 50%?"

Ebro scores more
50%
level
28%
Caspe scores more
22%

Ebro at 50% is simply the biggest of the three — that is the pick.

What the model can't see

It reads only the stats of recent matches. It knows nothing about:

  • injuries & suspensions
  • the matchday lineup
  • motivation — cup, relegation, a title race
  • weather & pitch condition
  • in-game coaching decisions

So 50% does not mean "Ebro will win" — it means "on the available stats, this is the most likely result."

Statistical model based on expected goals (xG). For informational purposes only.

Probable lineups not yet announced

Starting lineups are usually confirmed ~1 hour before kickoff

Tercera División RFEF - Group 17: Ebro 1–0 Caspe

Ebro beat Caspe 1-0 in Tercera División RFEF - Group 17 on November 10, 2024.

The match was played at Estadio Almozara in Zaragoza.