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Ebro vs Binéfar — Tercera División RFEF - Group 17 2019

Ebro
Ebro
FT
0 – 0
HT: 0 – 0
Binéfar
Binéfar
12/6/2024Tercera División RFEF - Group 17Tercera División RFEF - Group 17 · Group 17 - 13Estadio Almozara

Match Prediction

Statistical Prediction

Based on goals from last 34+ matches

Ebro47%
×Draw27%
Binéfar26%
✓ Correct in 50 of 100 matches — 5 more than always backing the home side
Model
50.3%
Always home
44.5%

The model picks a winner (home or away) for each finished match using only pre-kickoff data, then checks it against the real result: 50.3% correct across 582,450 matches, vs 44.5% for always backing the home side.

Home picks 50.5% correct · Away picks 49.5% correct

Football matches only. Past performance is not indicative of future results.

Expected goals in this match

What is xG?

Every shot is scored 0–1 by how likely it is to be a goal from that spot — a chance in the middle of the box ≈ 0.4, a long shot from a tight angle ≈ 0.03, a penalty ≈ 0.76. Add them up over a match and that is the xG.

The scoreline can lie: you can win 1-0 on a fluke while creating half the chances. xG shows who was really closer to scoring — and over a season it predicts results better than goals alone.

Ebro
1.39
Binéfar
0.96

Ebro creates 45% more chances

Season form · 34 home / 111 away

creates per match

Ebro
1.56
Binéfar
1.27

allows per match

Ebro
0.65
Binéfar
1.21

finishing

Ebro+0.00on par
Binéfar+0.00on par

Total goals

58%Under
  • Under58
  • Over42

Fewer than 3 goals likely

Both teams score

54%No
  • No54
  • Yes46

One side may not score

Score probability

Probability of each scoreline, %

Ebro ↓

Binéfar →
0
1
2
3
4
0
0–010%
0–19%
0–24%
0–31%
0–40%
1
1–013%
1–113%
1–26%
1–32%
1–40%
2
2–09%
2–19%
2–24%
2–31%
2–40%
3
3–04%
3–14%
3–22%
3–31%
3–40%
4
4–01%
4–11%
4–21%
4–30%
4–40%

Most likely 1–0 (13%) · grid covers 98% of scorelines

More markets

Total goals

OverUnder0.5
90%10%1.5
68%32%2.5
42%58%3.5
21%79%4.5
9%91%

Double chance

Ebro or draw
74%
Ebro or Binéfar
73%
Draw or Binéfar
53%

Winning margin

Ebro wins by 2+
22%
Binéfar wins by 2+
9%

Team goals

Ebro 1+ goals
75%
Ebro 2+ goals
40%
Ebro 3+ goals
16%
Binéfar 1+ goals
62%
Binéfar 2+ goals
25%
Binéfar 3+ goals
7%

Draw no bet

Ebro (draw refunded)
64%
Binéfar (draw refunded)
36%

Combos

Both score & 3+ goals
34%
Both score & under 3
13%

Model probabilities, not odds. For information only.

How is this calculated?

Every number below comes from this match — nothing is made up.

1

Recent form of each side

Ebro at home — creates 1.56, concedes 0.65 · 34 matches

Binéfar away — creates 1.27, concedes 1.21 · 111 matches

⚑ Home and away form are counted separately — the home-field edge is already baked into these numbers.

2

Expected goals for this match

Ebro attack 1.56 + Binéfar defence 1.21 → ÷2 → 1.39

Binéfar attack 1.27 + Ebro defence 0.65 → ÷2 → 0.96

Each side's attack is blended with the other's defence, then averaged.

3

Chance of every scoreline

From those two numbers a Poisson distribution gives the probability of each exact score — the grid shown above.

4

The answer to "why 47%?"

Ebro scores more
47%
level
27%
Binéfar scores more
26%

Ebro at 47% is simply the biggest of the three — that is the pick.

What the model can't see

It reads only the stats of recent matches. It knows nothing about:

  • injuries & suspensions
  • the matchday lineup
  • motivation — cup, relegation, a title race
  • weather & pitch condition
  • in-game coaching decisions

So 47% does not mean "Ebro will win" — it means "on the available stats, this is the most likely result."

Statistical model based on expected goals (xG). For informational purposes only.

Probable lineups not yet announced

Starting lineups are usually confirmed ~1 hour before kickoff

Tercera División RFEF - Group 17: Ebro 0–0 Binéfar

Ebro and Binéfar drew 0-0 in Tercera División RFEF - Group 17 on December 6, 2024.

The match was played at Estadio Almozara in Zaragoza.