Ebro 0–0 Atlético Monzón: Result & Stats

Ebro

FT

0 – 0

HT: 0 – 0

Atlético Monzón

3/31/2024

Tercera División RFEF - Group 17 · Group 17 - 27Estadio Almozara

Match Prediction

Statistical Prediction

Based on goals from last 34+ matches

Ebro46%

×Draw28%

Atlético Monzón26%

✓ Correct in 50 of 100 matches — 5 more than always backing the home side

Model

50.3%

Always home

44.5%

The model picks a winner (home or away) for each finished match using only pre-kickoff data, then checks it against the real result: 50.3% correct across 582,450 matches, vs 44.5% for always backing the home side.

Home picks 50.5% correct · Away picks 49.5% correct

Football matches only. Past performance is not indicative of future results.

EbroExpected goals in this matchAtlético Monzón

Expected goals in this match

What is xG?

Every shot is scored 0–1 by how likely it is to be a goal from that spot — a chance in the middle of the box ≈ 0.4, a long shot from a tight angle ≈ 0.03, a penalty ≈ 0.76. Add them up over a match and that is the xG.

The scoreline can lie: you can win 1-0 on a fluke while creating half the chances. xG shows who was really closer to scoring — and over a season it predicts results better than goals alone.

1.34

0.94

Ebro

1.34

Atlético Monzón

0.94

Ebro creates 43% more chances

Season form · 34 home / 115 away

1.56

creates per match

1.22

0.65

allows per match

1.13

creates per match

Ebro

1.56

Atlético Monzón

1.22

allows per match

Ebro

0.65

Atlético Monzón

1.13

+0.00on par

finishing

+0.00on par

finishing

Ebro+0.00on par

Atlético Monzón+0.00on par

Total goals

Under60
Over40

Fewer than 3 goals likely

Both teams score

No55
Yes45

One side may not score

Score probability

Probability of each scoreline, %

Ebro ↓

Atlético Monzón →

0

1

2

3

4

0

0–010%

0–110%

0–25%

0–31%

0–40%

1

1–014%

1–113%

1–26%

1–32%

1–40%

2

2–09%

2–19%

2–24%

2–31%

2–40%

3

3–04%

3–14%

3–22%

3–31%

3–40%

4

4–01%

4–11%

4–21%

4–30%

4–40%

Most likely 1–0 (14%) · grid covers 99% of scorelines

More markets

Total goals

OverUnder0.5

90%10%1.5

66%34%2.5

40%60%3.5

20%80%4.5

8%92%

Double chance

Ebro or draw

74%

Ebro or Atlético Monzón

72%

Draw or Atlético Monzón

54%

Winning margin

Ebro wins by 2+

22%

Atlético Monzón wins by 2+

9%

Team goals

Ebro 1+ goals

74%

Ebro 2+ goals

39%

Ebro 3+ goals

15%

Atlético Monzón 1+ goals

61%

Atlético Monzón 2+ goals

24%

Atlético Monzón 3+ goals

7%

Draw no bet

Ebro (draw refunded)

64%

Atlético Monzón (draw refunded)

36%

Combos

Both score & 3+ goals

32%

Both score & under 3

13%

Model probabilities, not odds. For information only.

How is this calculated?

Every number below comes from this match — nothing is made up.

1

Recent form of each side

Ebro at home — creates 1.56, concedes 0.65 · 34 matches

Atlético Monzón away — creates 1.22, concedes 1.13 · 115 matches

⚑ Home and away form are counted separately — the home-field edge is already baked into these numbers.

2

Expected goals for this match

Ebro attack 1.56 + Atlético Monzón defence 1.13 → ÷2 → 1.34

Atlético Monzón attack 1.22 + Ebro defence 0.65 → ÷2 → 0.94

Each side's attack is blended with the other's defence, then averaged.

3

Chance of every scoreline

From those two numbers a Poisson distribution gives the probability of each exact score — the grid shown above.

4

The answer to "why 46%?"

Ebro scores more

46%

level

28%

Atlético Monzón scores more

26%

Ebro at 46% is simply the biggest of the three — that is the pick.

What the model can't see

It reads only the stats of recent matches. It knows nothing about:

injuries & suspensions
the matchday lineup
motivation — cup, relegation, a title race
weather & pitch condition
in-game coaching decisions

So 46% does not mean "Ebro will win" — it means "on the available stats, this is the most likely result."

Statistical model based on expected goals (xG). For informational purposes only.

Probable lineups not yet announced

Starting lineups are usually confirmed ~1 hour before kickoff