Ebro 0–1 Almudévar: Result & Stats

Ebro

FT

0 – 1

HT: 0 – 0

Almudévar

11/19/2023

Tercera División RFEF - Group 17 · Group 17 - 11Estadio Almozara

Match Prediction

Statistical Prediction

Based on goals from last 34+ matches

Ebro54%

×Draw27%

Almudévar19%

✓ Correct in 50 of 100 matches — 5 more than always backing the home side

Model

50.3%

Always home

44.5%

The model picks a winner (home or away) for each finished match using only pre-kickoff data, then checks it against the real result: 50.3% correct across 582,450 matches, vs 44.5% for always backing the home side.

Home picks 50.5% correct · Away picks 49.5% correct

Football matches only. Past performance is not indicative of future results.

EbroExpected goals in this matchAlmudévar

Expected goals in this match

What is xG?

Every shot is scored 0–1 by how likely it is to be a goal from that spot — a chance in the middle of the box ≈ 0.4, a long shot from a tight angle ≈ 0.03, a penalty ≈ 0.76. Add them up over a match and that is the xG.

The scoreline can lie: you can win 1-0 on a fluke while creating half the chances. xG shows who was really closer to scoring — and over a season it predicts results better than goals alone.

1.43

0.71

Ebro

1.43

Almudévar

0.71

Ebro creates 101% more chances

Season form · 34 home / 96 away

1.56

creates per match

0.77

0.65

allows per match

1.29

creates per match

Ebro

1.56

Almudévar

0.77

allows per match

Ebro

0.65

Almudévar

1.29

+0.00on par

finishing

+0.00on par

finishing

Ebro+0.00on par

Almudévar+0.00on par

Total goals

Under64
Over36

Fewer than 3 goals likely

Both teams score

No61
Yes39

One side may not score

Score probability

Probability of each scoreline, %

Ebro ↓

Almudévar →

0

1

2

3

4

0

0–012%

0–18%

0–23%

0–31%

0–40%

1

1–017%

1–112%

1–24%

1–31%

1–40%

2

2–012%

2–19%

2–23%

2–31%

2–40%

3

3–06%

3–14%

3–21%

3–30%

3–40%

4

4–02%

4–11%

4–21%

4–30%

4–40%

Most likely 1–0 (17%) · grid covers 98% of scorelines

More markets

Total goals

OverUnder0.5

88%12%1.5

63%37%2.5

36%64%3.5

17%83%4.5

7%93%

Double chance

Ebro or draw

81%

Ebro or Almudévar

73%

Draw or Almudévar

46%

Winning margin

Ebro wins by 2+

27%

Almudévar wins by 2+

5%

Team goals

Ebro 1+ goals

76%

Ebro 2+ goals

42%

Ebro 3+ goals

17%

Almudévar 1+ goals

51%

Almudévar 2+ goals

16%

Almudévar 3+ goals

4%

Draw no bet

Ebro (draw refunded)

75%

Almudévar (draw refunded)

25%

Combos

Both score & 3+ goals

27%

Both score & under 3

12%

Model probabilities, not odds. For information only.

How is this calculated?

Every number below comes from this match — nothing is made up.

1

Recent form of each side

Ebro at home — creates 1.56, concedes 0.65 · 34 matches

Almudévar away — creates 0.77, concedes 1.29 · 96 matches

⚑ Home and away form are counted separately — the home-field edge is already baked into these numbers.

2

Expected goals for this match

Ebro attack 1.56 + Almudévar defence 1.29 → ÷2 → 1.43

Almudévar attack 0.77 + Ebro defence 0.65 → ÷2 → 0.71

Each side's attack is blended with the other's defence, then averaged.

3

Chance of every scoreline

From those two numbers a Poisson distribution gives the probability of each exact score — the grid shown above.

4

The answer to "why 54%?"

Ebro scores more

54%

level

27%

Almudévar scores more

19%

Ebro at 54% is simply the biggest of the three — that is the pick.

What the model can't see

It reads only the stats of recent matches. It knows nothing about:

injuries & suspensions
the matchday lineup
motivation — cup, relegation, a title race
weather & pitch condition
in-game coaching decisions

So 54% does not mean "Ebro will win" — it means "on the available stats, this is the most likely result."

Statistical model based on expected goals (xG). For informational purposes only.

Probable lineups not yet announced

Starting lineups are usually confirmed ~1 hour before kickoff