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Ebreichsdorf vs Bruck/Leitha — Regionalliga - Ost 2018

Ebreichsdorf
Ebreichsdorf
FT
1 – 1
Bruck/Leitha
Bruck/Leitha
4/26/2019Regionalliga - OstRegionalliga - Ost · Round 24Sportzentrum Ebreichsdorf (Weigelsdorf)

Match Prediction

Statistical Prediction

Based on goals from last 24+ matches

Ebreichsdorf73%
×Draw16%
Bruck/Leitha11%
✓ Correct in 50 of 100 matches — 6 more than always backing the home side
Model
49.7%
Always home
44.3%

The model picks a winner (home or away) for each finished match using only pre-kickoff data, then checks it against the real result: 49.7% correct across 106,786 matches, vs 44.3% for always backing the home side.

Home picks 50.7% correct · Away picks 47.3% correct

Football matches only. Past performance is not indicative of future results.

Expected goals in this match

What is xG?

Every shot is scored 0–1 by how likely it is to be a goal from that spot — a chance in the middle of the box ≈ 0.4, a long shot from a tight angle ≈ 0.03, a penalty ≈ 0.76. Add them up over a match and that is the xG.

The scoreline can lie: you can win 1-0 on a fluke while creating half the chances. xG shows who was really closer to scoring — and over a season it predicts results better than goals alone.

Ebreichsdorf
2.58
Bruck/Leitha
0.90

Ebreichsdorf creates 187% more chances

Season form · 24 home / 54 away

creates per match

Ebreichsdorf
3.00
Bruck/Leitha
1.09

allows per match

Ebreichsdorf
0.71
Bruck/Leitha
2.17

finishing

Ebreichsdorf+0.00on par
Bruck/Leitha+0.00on par

Total goals

67%Over
  • Over67
  • Under33

3+ goals likely

Both teams score

55%Yes
  • Yes55
  • No45

Both teams likely to score

Score probability

Probability of each scoreline, %

Ebreichsdorf ↓

Bruck/Leitha →
0
1
2
3
4
0
0–03%
0–13%
0–21%
0–30%
0–40%
1
1–08%
1–17%
1–23%
1–31%
1–40%
2
2–010%
2–19%
2–24%
2–31%
2–40%
3
3–09%
3–18%
3–24%
3–31%
3–40%
4
4–06%
4–15%
4–22%
4–31%
4–40%

Most likely 2–0 (10%) · grid covers 89% of scorelines

More markets

Total goals

OverUnder0.5
97%3%1.5
86%14%2.5
67%33%3.5
45%55%4.5
26%74%

Double chance

Ebreichsdorf or draw
89%
Ebreichsdorf or Bruck/Leitha
84%
Draw or Bruck/Leitha
27%

Winning margin

Ebreichsdorf wins by 2+
51%
Bruck/Leitha wins by 2+
3%

Team goals

Ebreichsdorf 1+ goals
92%
Ebreichsdorf 2+ goals
72%
Ebreichsdorf 3+ goals
47%
Bruck/Leitha 1+ goals
59%
Bruck/Leitha 2+ goals
23%
Bruck/Leitha 3+ goals
6%

Draw no bet

Ebreichsdorf (draw refunded)
87%
Bruck/Leitha (draw refunded)
13%

Combos

Both score & 3+ goals
47%
Both score & under 3
7%

Model probabilities, not odds. For information only.

How is this calculated?

Every number below comes from this match — nothing is made up.

1

Recent form of each side

Ebreichsdorf at home — creates 3.00, concedes 0.71 · 24 matches

Bruck/Leitha away — creates 1.09, concedes 2.17 · 54 matches

⚑ Home and away form are counted separately — the home-field edge is already baked into these numbers.

2

Expected goals for this match

Ebreichsdorf attack 3.00 + Bruck/Leitha defence 2.17 → ÷2 → 2.58

Bruck/Leitha attack 1.09 + Ebreichsdorf defence 0.71 → ÷2 → 0.90

Each side's attack is blended with the other's defence, then averaged.

3

Chance of every scoreline

From those two numbers a Poisson distribution gives the probability of each exact score — the grid shown above.

4

The answer to "why 73%?"

Ebreichsdorf scores more
73%
level
16%
Bruck/Leitha scores more
11%

Ebreichsdorf at 73% is simply the biggest of the three — that is the pick.

What the model can't see

It reads only the stats of recent matches. It knows nothing about:

  • injuries & suspensions
  • the matchday lineup
  • motivation — cup, relegation, a title race
  • weather & pitch condition
  • in-game coaching decisions

So 73% does not mean "Ebreichsdorf will win" — it means "on the available stats, this is the most likely result."

Statistical model based on expected goals (xG). For informational purposes only.

Probable lineups not yet announced

Starting lineups are usually confirmed ~1 hour before kickoff

Regionalliga - Ost: Ebreichsdorf 1–1 Bruck/Leitha

Ebreichsdorf and Bruck/Leitha drew 1-1 in Regionalliga - Ost on April 26, 2019.

The match was played at Sportzentrum Ebreichsdorf (Weigelsdorf).