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Ebony FC vs Skyy — Division One League 2025

Ebony FC
Ebony FC
FT
1 – 0
HT: 0 – 0
Skyy
Skyy
3/21/2026Division One LeagueDivision One League · Round 23

Match Prediction

Statistical Prediction

Based on goals from last 15+ matches

Ebony FC46%
×Draw32%
Skyy22%
✓ Correct in 50 of 100 matches — 6 more than always backing the home side
Model
49.7%
Always home
44.3%

The model picks a winner (home or away) for each finished match using only pre-kickoff data, then checks it against the real result: 49.7% correct across 106,786 matches, vs 44.3% for always backing the home side.

Home picks 50.7% correct · Away picks 47.3% correct

Football matches only. Past performance is not indicative of future results.

Expected goals in this match

What is xG?

Every shot is scored 0–1 by how likely it is to be a goal from that spot — a chance in the middle of the box ≈ 0.4, a long shot from a tight angle ≈ 0.03, a penalty ≈ 0.76. Add them up over a match and that is the xG.

The scoreline can lie: you can win 1-0 on a fluke while creating half the chances. xG shows who was really closer to scoring — and over a season it predicts results better than goals alone.

Ebony FC
1.10
Skyy
0.67

Ebony FC creates 64% more chances

Season form · 15 home / 15 away

creates per match

Ebony FC
0.60
Skyy
0.93

allows per match

Ebony FC
0.40
Skyy
1.60

finishing

Ebony FC+0.00on par
Skyy+0.00on par

Total goals

74%Under
  • Under74
  • Over26

Fewer than 3 goals likely

Both teams score

67%No
  • No67
  • Yes33

One side may not score

Score probability

Probability of each scoreline, %

Ebony FC ↓

Skyy →
0
1
2
3
4
0
0–017%
0–111%
0–24%
0–31%
0–40%
1
1–019%
1–113%
1–24%
1–31%
1–40%
2
2–010%
2–17%
2–22%
2–31%
2–40%
3
3–04%
3–13%
3–21%
3–30%
3–40%
4
4–01%
4–11%
4–20%
4–30%
4–40%

Most likely 1–0 (19%) · grid covers 99% of scorelines

More markets

Total goals

OverUnder0.5
83%17%1.5
53%47%2.5
26%74%3.5
10%90%4.5
3%97%

Double chance

Ebony FC or draw
78%
Ebony FC or Skyy
68%
Draw or Skyy
54%

Winning margin

Ebony FC wins by 2+
19%
Skyy wins by 2+
6%

Team goals

Ebony FC 1+ goals
67%
Ebony FC 2+ goals
30%
Ebony FC 3+ goals
10%
Skyy 1+ goals
49%
Skyy 2+ goals
15%
Skyy 3+ goals
3%

Draw no bet

Ebony FC (draw refunded)
67%
Skyy (draw refunded)
33%

Combos

Both score & 3+ goals
20%
Both score & under 3
13%

Model probabilities, not odds. For information only.

How is this calculated?

Every number below comes from this match — nothing is made up.

1

Recent form of each side

Ebony FC at home — creates 0.60, concedes 0.40 · 15 matches

Skyy away — creates 0.93, concedes 1.60 · 15 matches

⚑ Home and away form are counted separately — the home-field edge is already baked into these numbers.

2

Expected goals for this match

Ebony FC attack 0.60 + Skyy defence 1.60 → ÷2 → 1.10

Skyy attack 0.93 + Ebony FC defence 0.40 → ÷2 → 0.67

Each side's attack is blended with the other's defence, then averaged.

3

Chance of every scoreline

From those two numbers a Poisson distribution gives the probability of each exact score — the grid shown above.

4

The answer to "why 46%?"

Ebony FC scores more
46%
level
32%
Skyy scores more
22%

Ebony FC at 46% is simply the biggest of the three — that is the pick.

What the model can't see

It reads only the stats of recent matches. It knows nothing about:

  • injuries & suspensions
  • the matchday lineup
  • motivation — cup, relegation, a title race
  • weather & pitch condition
  • in-game coaching decisions

So 46% does not mean "Ebony FC will win" — it means "on the available stats, this is the most likely result."

Statistical model based on expected goals (xG). For informational purposes only.

Probable lineups not yet announced

Starting lineups are usually confirmed ~1 hour before kickoff

Ebony FC 1 – 0 Skyy

Ebony FC beat Skyy 1-0 in Division One League on March 21, 2026.