Ebony FC 1–0 New Edubiase: Result & Stats

Ebony FC

FT

1 – 0

HT: 0 – 0

New Edubiase

5/9/2026

Division One League · Round 29

Match Prediction

Statistical Prediction

Based on goals from last 15+ matches

Ebony FC42%

×Draw36%

New Edubiase22%

✓ Correct in 50 of 100 matches — 5 more than always backing the home side

Model

50.3%

Always home

44.5%

The model picks a winner (home or away) for each finished match using only pre-kickoff data, then checks it against the real result: 50.3% correct across 582,450 matches, vs 44.5% for always backing the home side.

Home picks 50.5% correct · Away picks 49.5% correct

Football matches only. Past performance is not indicative of future results.

Ebony FCExpected goals in this matchNew Edubiase

Expected goals in this match

What is xG?

Every shot is scored 0–1 by how likely it is to be a goal from that spot — a chance in the middle of the box ≈ 0.4, a long shot from a tight angle ≈ 0.03, a penalty ≈ 0.76. Add them up over a match and that is the xG.

The scoreline can lie: you can win 1-0 on a fluke while creating half the chances. xG shows who was really closer to scoring — and over a season it predicts results better than goals alone.

0.90

0.56

Ebony FC

0.90

New Edubiase

0.56

Ebony FC creates 61% more chances

Season form · 15 home / 15 away

0.60

creates per match

0.73

0.40

allows per match

1.20

creates per match

Ebony FC

0.60

New Edubiase

0.73

allows per match

Ebony FC

0.40

New Edubiase

1.20

+0.00on par

finishing

+0.00on par

finishing

Ebony FC+0.00on par

New Edubiase+0.00on par

Total goals

Under82
Over18

Fewer than 3 goals likely

Both teams score

No75
Yes25

One side may not score

Score probability

Probability of each scoreline, %

Ebony FC ↓

New Edubiase →

0

1

2

3

4

0

0–023%

0–113%

0–24%

0–31%

0–40%

1

1–021%

1–112%

1–23%

1–31%

1–40%

2

2–09%

2–15%

2–21%

2–30%

2–40%

3

3–03%

3–12%

3–20%

3–30%

3–40%

4

4–01%

4–10%

4–20%

4–30%

4–40%

Most likely 0–0 (23%) · grid covers 100% of scorelines

More markets

Total goals

OverUnder0.5

77%23%1.5

43%57%2.5

18%82%3.5

6%94%4.5

2%98%

Double chance

Ebony FC or draw

78%

Ebony FC or New Edubiase

64%

Draw or New Edubiase

58%

Winning margin

Ebony FC wins by 2+

15%

New Edubiase wins by 2+

5%

Team goals

Ebony FC 1+ goals

59%

Ebony FC 2+ goals

23%

Ebony FC 3+ goals

6%

New Edubiase 1+ goals

43%

New Edubiase 2+ goals

11%

New Edubiase 3+ goals

2%

Draw no bet

Ebony FC (draw refunded)

66%

New Edubiase (draw refunded)

34%

Combos

Both score & 3+ goals

14%

Both score & under 3

12%

Model probabilities, not odds. For information only.

How is this calculated?

Every number below comes from this match — nothing is made up.

1

Recent form of each side

Ebony FC at home — creates 0.60, concedes 0.40 · 15 matches

New Edubiase away — creates 0.73, concedes 1.20 · 15 matches

⚑ Home and away form are counted separately — the home-field edge is already baked into these numbers.

2

Expected goals for this match

Ebony FC attack 0.60 + New Edubiase defence 1.20 → ÷2 → 0.90

New Edubiase attack 0.73 + Ebony FC defence 0.40 → ÷2 → 0.56

Each side's attack is blended with the other's defence, then averaged.

3

Chance of every scoreline

From those two numbers a Poisson distribution gives the probability of each exact score — the grid shown above.

4

The answer to "why 42%?"

Ebony FC scores more

42%

level

36%

New Edubiase scores more

22%

Ebony FC at 42% is simply the biggest of the three — that is the pick.

What the model can't see

It reads only the stats of recent matches. It knows nothing about:

injuries & suspensions
the matchday lineup
motivation — cup, relegation, a title race
weather & pitch condition
in-game coaching decisions

So 42% does not mean "Ebony FC will win" — it means "on the available stats, this is the most likely result."

Statistical model based on expected goals (xG). For informational purposes only.

Probable lineups not yet announced

Starting lineups are usually confirmed ~1 hour before kickoff