Ebony FC 1–1 Ashanti Gold: Result & Stats

Ebony FC

FT

1 – 1

HT: 0 – 1

Ashanti Gold

11/15/2025

Division One League · Round 7

Match Prediction

Statistical Prediction

Based on goals from last 15+ matches

Ebony FC30%

×Draw37%

Ashanti Gold33%

✓ Correct in 50 of 100 matches — 6 more than always backing the home side

Model

49.7%

Always home

44.3%

The model picks a winner (home or away) for each finished match using only pre-kickoff data, then checks it against the real result: 49.7% correct across 106,786 matches, vs 44.3% for always backing the home side.

Home picks 50.7% correct · Away picks 47.3% correct

Football matches only. Past performance is not indicative of future results.

Ebony FCExpected goals in this matchAshanti Gold

Expected goals in this match

What is xG?

Every shot is scored 0–1 by how likely it is to be a goal from that spot — a chance in the middle of the box ≈ 0.4, a long shot from a tight angle ≈ 0.03, a penalty ≈ 0.76. Add them up over a match and that is the xG.

The scoreline can lie: you can win 1-0 on a fluke while creating half the chances. xG shows who was really closer to scoring — and over a season it predicts results better than goals alone.

0.70

0.76

Ebony FC

0.70

Ashanti Gold

0.76

Both teams create about equally

Season form · 15 home / 15 away

0.60

creates per match

1.13

0.40

allows per match

0.80

creates per match

Ebony FC

0.60

Ashanti Gold

1.13

allows per match

Ebony FC

0.40

Ashanti Gold

0.80

+0.00on par

finishing

+0.00on par

finishing

Ebony FC+0.00on par

Ashanti Gold+0.00on par

Total goals

Under82
Over18

Fewer than 3 goals likely

Both teams score

No73
Yes27

One side may not score

Score probability

Probability of each scoreline, %

Ebony FC ↓

Ashanti Gold →

0

1

2

3

4

0

0–023%

0–118%

0–27%

0–32%

0–40%

1

1–016%

1–112%

1–25%

1–31%

1–40%

2

2–06%

2–14%

2–22%

2–30%

2–40%

3

3–01%

3–11%

3–20%

3–30%

3–40%

4

4–00%

4–10%

4–20%

4–30%

4–40%

Most likely 0–0 (23%) · grid covers 100% of scorelines

More markets

Total goals

OverUnder0.5

77%23%1.5

43%57%2.5

18%82%3.5

6%94%4.5

2%98%

Double chance

Ebony FC or draw

67%

Ebony FC or Ashanti Gold

63%

Draw or Ashanti Gold

70%

Winning margin

Ebony FC wins by 2+

9%

Ashanti Gold wins by 2+

10%

Team goals

Ebony FC 1+ goals

50%

Ebony FC 2+ goals

16%

Ebony FC 3+ goals

3%

Ashanti Gold 1+ goals

53%

Ashanti Gold 2+ goals

18%

Ashanti Gold 3+ goals

4%

Draw no bet

Ebony FC (draw refunded)

47%

Ashanti Gold (draw refunded)

53%

Combos

Both score & 3+ goals

14%

Both score & under 3

12%

Model probabilities, not odds. For information only.

How is this calculated?

Every number below comes from this match — nothing is made up.

1

Recent form of each side

Ebony FC at home — creates 0.60, concedes 0.40 · 15 matches

Ashanti Gold away — creates 1.13, concedes 0.80 · 15 matches

⚑ Home and away form are counted separately — the home-field edge is already baked into these numbers.

2

Expected goals for this match

Ebony FC attack 0.60 + Ashanti Gold defence 0.80 → ÷2 → 0.70

Ashanti Gold attack 1.13 + Ebony FC defence 0.40 → ÷2 → 0.76

Each side's attack is blended with the other's defence, then averaged.

3

Chance of every scoreline

From those two numbers a Poisson distribution gives the probability of each exact score — the grid shown above.

4

The answer to "why 33%?"

Ebony FC scores more

30%

level

37%

Ashanti Gold scores more

33%

Ashanti Gold at 33% is simply the biggest of the three — that is the pick.

What the model can't see

It reads only the stats of recent matches. It knows nothing about:

injuries & suspensions
the matchday lineup
motivation — cup, relegation, a title race
weather & pitch condition
in-game coaching decisions

So 33% does not mean "Ashanti Gold will win" — it means "on the available stats, this is the most likely result."

Statistical model based on expected goals (xG). For informational purposes only.

Probable lineups not yet announced

Starting lineups are usually confirmed ~1 hour before kickoff